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KVB any leans in the MAC conference?Comment -
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Graper, why does gramma need so many solo red cups?Comment -
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Unfortunately these games go off simultaneously, not really giving us a chance to estimate the flow of money from one to the other. Either way, I think I know what’s happening. The way it should go tonight is W. Michgan plus points and Northern Illinois over Buffalo.
Almost all forecasts seem to have BG winning this game. Some have them by a few points and some by nearly ten. I am right in the middle. Basic models have a close game with points in the upper 70’s while those with a bigger Bowling Green win seems to have a lower score, in the upper 60’s. I figure BG by about 6 with a total of about 72 or 74. This line opened close to that with Bowling Green -4.5 and a 76 Total.
The Total has dropped and settled about 72. This makes perfect sense and I have little angles or edges on this Total. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game fell between 71 and 76 points. It is my belief that the pointspread dropped from 4.5 to 3, not because of forecasts, which for the most part can help support the favorite, but because of I have metrics providing indication that some rather sharp groups of bettors like Western Michigan in this spot.
These groups move the line and that’s just the way it is. Have we lost value here? I believe so, but the underdog sure has a shot here. If I am betting W Michigan and they take a lead by a couple of scores early, then expect Bowling Green to come back and spoil the party with perhaps a 3 point victory. Bowling Green has one 7 in a row while Western Michigan has one 5 in a row.
I like the Underdog here but can see several bookmaking techniques indicating a bit of a trap. Should Bowling Green cover this spread, I believe we will have future MAC opportunities as those sharper groups of bettors will eventually get more right than wrong.
While many forecasts have Northern Illinois to win by 6 or 7 points I have more like a 20 point victory. The line opened at -5 and has moved toward my line to -7. The Total opened at 56 and hasn’t moved much. I believe there is more pressure on the OVER than the books are indicating with such the stable line. Not only do forecasts tend to go over, but there are other motivations by groups of bettors to take the Over.
Again these two teams are entering this game with 3 and 4 game win streaks. I believe Northern Illinois, who has won 4 in a row, should cover this spread and if the Bowling Green game shows the Underdog covering, then we may see an Under in the Total the game in Buffalo. I don’t believe bettors will get both bets…Western Michigan and the OVER in Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo.
Because the metrics steer the money in such a way that we see an Underdog in the first game and the favorite in the second game I would urge caution. It is the second game that could be the spoiler as Buffalo could surprise the bettors. This prevents us from going with a two pick parley here.
I would lean towards the underdogs here and wouldn’t be surprised to lose the underdog bet in the Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan game in dramatic fashion. This game will likely show some drama on the field, whether lead changes, late game intensity, or even a Bowling Green fuk you to the sharps with a blowout.
I also feel that the OVER in the Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo is an extremely risky bet and wouldn’t choose that side tonight.
Good Luck.
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Fuk it, just picked up Buffalo +235 over Northern Illinois.
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There is no point on analyzing a game, making some bets, and then just letting all that situational thinking combined with a ton of new knowledge in the form of results go by the wayside.
So what the hell happened here tonight?
There was a little of all of this in the first game. Lead changes early giving WMU bettors hope and late game antics…down 14 points with 68 total points and there is a failed 4th and goal…no points at all keeping the game out of the 70’s. Somebody’s saying fuk you to some sharp analysts.
The 71 points came in Buffalo and this Over paid with ease. But in the end Western Michigan stayed out of reach. It was going to be tough to get both and you can believe that more money was on the Bowling Green Western Michigan side than was on the Total in Buffalo.
Also, while WMU played close, showing the Underdog, Buffalo scored a 3 point half, suggesting the under. This was predicted…both bets were misleading.
You can bet there was some sharp two picks getting killed there.
It’s rarely how it SHOULD be…It looks like Northern Illinois held true but the Western Michigan bet was already suspect from the get go. Indeed it appeared to be a game early but the 14 point lead down the stretch had those underdog bettors thinking about for a while.
So some analysis was on point and some off a bit. My initial play was going with the payout of Buffalo +235. I know I had predicted Northern Illinois but the situation made the +235 worth it. After trailing by 25 at half, they had the ball in the fourth quarter, down 8 points. Despite this, the play failed.
As the games began however, I made a couple of other bets, consistent with my analysis.
Here’s the entire pending card for 5 Dimes tonight…You can see it started with the losing +235 but every play made after won.
And yes, I did buy the 2nd half OVER in Buffalo, but I only show the 5 Dimes.
Sometimes, whether games are simultaneous or consecutive, it helps to lay a road map out early. That way, when the bullets begin to fly, the fog of war appears a little thinner.
Sometimes decisions have to be made on the fly it helps to have an idea of how you will react beforehand.
The old adage is as true in sports betting as anywhere else in life…failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
Track your bets and why you made them fellas, that information can be the most important information you have to work with. Talk about unique: You’re bets and why you make them become information that not even the most advanced syndicates have.
Of course, those who can read the bettors and the marketplace already have a good idea of what you bet and why…and, whether you win or lose, we have a good idea of what you are going to do next.
Muhahahahaha.
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I think one of them is 10 Billion times better. TrumpcornLast edited by dogkatcher; 11-12-15, 02:07 AM.Comment -
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Bills @ Jets
1st score of the game will be: FG +130
Will there be a defensive/ST touchdown: Yes +185
C. Ivory under 69.5 rushing yards -130
Good Luck Gentz!!!
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96% of the African Americans that voted
voted for Barack Obama
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I think count will appreciate this???
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nice assComment -
amenComment -
oo lala
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Need more
cash
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When The Head Hits That Canvas Its NIghty Night Time
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Beautiful shot to the jugular!Comment -
Arizona@Seattle:
Will there be a Defensive/ST touchdown: Yes +190
Detroit@Green Bay:
1st Half: Green Bay -7 +100
Tease: GB, Tenn, NE, Cincy, Cle/Pitt under.
Good Luck Gentz!!!
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Had this done on Thursday...
Good Times.
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Hope your health is now optimal and the procedure is successful--I don't know much about it.Comment -
godbless kvbComment
