Theres a cerebral hot dog contest thread in players talk right now. It's probably the most intelligent thread Ive ever seen in players talk....
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This thread?
Or another?Comment -
Chestnut is pretty close to a lock here. Kobayashi and Bertoletti are not competing. Janus is basically the only one who has a chance, and he will still probably lose by 10 dogs.
As Pun said, unless Kobayashi pulls off a Tanya Harding Chestnut basically can't lose.
Last edited by NunyaBidness; 07-03-13, 01:53 PM.Comment -
He ate 68 last year? Whys the number so low?Comment -
He's only broken the over 62.5 three times, and it hasn't been linear growth.
2012: 68
2011: 62
2010: 54
2009: 68
2008: 59
2007: 66
2006: 52
2005: 32
If we throw out 2005-06 and consider them his amateur years, he's got an average of 62.83 dogs with a standard deviation of 5.6 dogs. Not enough to lay the juice on the over.
There's no real trendline at all, and when you factor in the lack of competition possibly being a lack of motivation, there's probably small value on the under.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 07-03-13, 03:24 PM.Comment -
That one, yeah...Comment -
keep in mind it was 12 minutes until 2007, when they lowered it to 10 minutes.Comment -
Just realized the over/under is at 63.5 not 62.5, in that case I recommend a play at the current line of under +185.Comment -
1861xxxxx-1 7/3/13 4:4xpm $100.00 $160.00 Pending 7/4/13 12:00pm Competitive Eating Other Sports 602 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 63½ +160*vs Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 63½ 1861xxxxx-1 7/3/13 4:2xpm $100.00 $185.00 Pending 7/4/13 12:00pm Competitive Eating Other Sports 602 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 63½ +185*vs Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 63½ Comment -
Someone just PM'd this link to me.
For anyone who thinks the powers that be don't read this forum:
Fast forward to 33:00 and see if anything sounds familiar.Comment -
Listen, I've known that rat to be on the forum for years. I outed him already. Sac and others who dont believe me about posting public information need to wake up.Comment -
He posted under valdosta and ghost_kid is his butt plugComment -
What am I listening for?Comment -
Chestnut under is back to +190.
The market hates me here, but methinks the market consists of guys who looked at last years number only.Comment -
What's the lowest that Chestnut straight has been?
Also, the under is still +135 on 5D. What book has +190? SB?Comment -
-800 was the lowest I heard, I've got it at -1000 several places.
It was +190 at 5d when I posted it. Gotta act fast.
1862xxxxx-1 7/4/13 7:3xam $100.00 $190.00 Pending 7/4/13 12:00pm Competitive Eating Other Sports 602 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 63½ +190*vs Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 63½ Comment -
Bookmaker is hanging 64.5 btw.
Chestnut still available at -1000 at bodog and sportsbook.Comment -
Well that was the most annoying media player that I've ever seen on the internet. Then again, it's a good theme when you have annoying people talking.Someone just PM'd this link to me.
For anyone who thinks the powers that be don't read this forum:
Fast forward to 33:00 and see if anything sounds familiar.Comment -
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602 Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten under 63½ +190*vs Joey Chestnut hot dogs eaten over 63½Comment -
I wouldn't be surprised if it bounced back, the pressure is certainly moving that way, especially considering that this line is widely arbable.
A very disappointing set of Nathan's lines however. In previous years we've gotten over/under lines on most of the competitors, as well as matchups and other props.Comment
