Here's my situation(more venting) than anything...
I have spent the last 3 years building computer models to predict the outcome of games. They are finally working and working well. I am not here to debate their performance. On college bball over/unders I am hitting 60%+ on 300 games or so since Dec 11th...
The problem I am running into...
1). I have yet to fully believe in the system. So what has happened a couple of saturdays is that I have a few beers in me... watching games unfold and in the morning things go south a little bit... I start stressing and bet other games not predicted by the computer but what I like and before I know it... I am down 2K. So the program hit 57%... I lost money. The following saturday... the program went 7-9, so I would have lost but instead of losing minimally... I lost huge.
2). Alcohol...killing me...It is hard for me not to bet and drink at the same time. If I am winning it isn't a problem, I stay disciplined and don't bet additional bets. If I am losing early than I unravel like last night. I went 0-3 last night and instead of being down $575, I was suddenly down and additional $800.
3). 0-3 last night...saturday 15-8 and sunday 1-0...But when you go 0-3 on Tuesday... you essentially give back a significant amount of your winning when you figure in the juice and I raised my bets a little on Tuesday. Really hard to win $900 only to give back $500 the following days. I get that it is still a net profit...but it really sucks. I know you can't win everyday.
4). I have an 8 year old son. And lately when I have him...I am checking scores all night rather than playing with him. I stay up until 1 AM to catch the end of the Pacific...whoever...to see if I won...
So the b**** is i have spent 3 years developing these programs and they finally work and now I am not sure how to live the style without destroying my life...
Dave
I have spent the last 3 years building computer models to predict the outcome of games. They are finally working and working well. I am not here to debate their performance. On college bball over/unders I am hitting 60%+ on 300 games or so since Dec 11th...
The problem I am running into...
1). I have yet to fully believe in the system. So what has happened a couple of saturdays is that I have a few beers in me... watching games unfold and in the morning things go south a little bit... I start stressing and bet other games not predicted by the computer but what I like and before I know it... I am down 2K. So the program hit 57%... I lost money. The following saturday... the program went 7-9, so I would have lost but instead of losing minimally... I lost huge.
2). Alcohol...killing me...It is hard for me not to bet and drink at the same time. If I am winning it isn't a problem, I stay disciplined and don't bet additional bets. If I am losing early than I unravel like last night. I went 0-3 last night and instead of being down $575, I was suddenly down and additional $800.
3). 0-3 last night...saturday 15-8 and sunday 1-0...But when you go 0-3 on Tuesday... you essentially give back a significant amount of your winning when you figure in the juice and I raised my bets a little on Tuesday. Really hard to win $900 only to give back $500 the following days. I get that it is still a net profit...but it really sucks. I know you can't win everyday.
4). I have an 8 year old son. And lately when I have him...I am checking scores all night rather than playing with him. I stay up until 1 AM to catch the end of the Pacific...whoever...to see if I won...
So the b**** is i have spent 3 years developing these programs and they finally work and now I am not sure how to live the style without destroying my life...
Dave