Vegas Dave's NFL PHILOSOPHY PICKS 11/2 (11 - 1 ATS This Year!)

[VegasDave]

Interestingly enough, my Philosophy Picks are not always just reverse line movement or betting against the public... but these have been the most frequent of late. Down the stretch you will see more pop up with different criteria. But this week there were just a few that were too good to pass up on.

Atlanta -3.0 @ Oakland +3.0

Atlanta, behind sharp young quarterback Matt Ryan and the legs of Michael Turner, has turned a complete 180, going from among the league's worst to a potential playoff team in the wide open NFC. 4 - 3 both ATS and straight up, losing a game to Philly that was much closer than the score indicating and coming off of wins against Green Bay and Chicago, this team looks like it can hang.

Oakland meanwhile floundered through another tough loss against Baltimore. And while the Baltimore defense had a lot to do with that, to the Average Joe, it was just another Oakland loss. Yes they beat the Jets, but it was ugly as hell and it looked more like the Jets losing than the Raiders winning; and Favre followed that up with another bad performance against one of the league's worst in Kansas City.

With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider's 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta's one weakness, it's passing defense, faces the league's 30th ranked passing attack.

Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering +105 or better.

It doesn't get any easier than Atlanta -3.0, which is exactly why I'm going with OAKLAND to win this game outright.

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Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle +6.5

HERE is where you really put your philosophy pick pride on the line, because this one I really have trouble seeing happening.

Philadelphia's 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle's 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league's 4th best passing offense, get to face the league's 30th ranked passing defense this week.

As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league's 9th ranked rushing defense... a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle's passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in, which he isn't now due to injury), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack.

The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5.

Philadelphia should win this one by 4 TDs by the numbers; but I'll take the lowly Seahawks to cover here.

-

So there you go! Both of these meet the same criteria; betting the side that bookmakers clearly don't want us to bet for some reason. We'll find out why Sunday.

Oakland (+3.0)
Seattle (+6.5)

[pavyracer]

Falcons win easily. They have promised Mr. Blank they will embarass Deangelo Hall for his antics last year. Falcons win big.

[ZBOIZ]

I have to agree with Dave on the Raiders pick

[etothep]

As I was betting on the Iggles, I was thinking "this has philosophy pick written all over it." I made the play anyways

Good luck on the Raiders

[Chi_archie]

ah snap two philosophy picks...... if you get these both this week... you'll be the Doctor of philosophy, Dr. Dave...

good luck

[ertl09]

good luck


did you consider KC ?

[VegasDave]

good luck

did you consider KC ?

Definitely did.

They didn't qualify for a few reasons. First of all, the line DID move accordingly; money poured in on the Bucs and the line moved up.

Secondly, Tampa Bay is coming off of a loss and needs to re-focus this week. KC is coming off of a great effort and they did cover the spread last week.

So it didn't fit. The line looks fair to me and the emotional factors didn't fit my code.

That isn't to say that KC isn't a solid dog play at +9. Good luck if you decide to go for it!

[ertl09]

I won't touch that game but thought it would be one of your picks.

no LJ and what you stated are valid reasons not to choose that game

[reno cool]

So your theory is handicap to find a really big mismatch compared to line, then bet the opposite. I believe fading the avg handicapper might be profitable, because I think they loose more than the vig. But this does seem a bit much.

[gm2022]

GL on the games!

[VegasDave]

So your theory is handicap to find a really big mismatch compared to line, then bet the opposite. I believe fading the avg handicapper might be profitable, because I think they loose more than the vig. But this does seem a bit much.

When handicapping games, I believe that a good capper can make a compelling argument for both sides of a spread. They try to imagine if the game were played 100 times, how many times would the favorite cover the spread? Win but not cover? Lose outright? Impossible to get a perfect #, but you should have an idea. And you should know how your opponent can beat you. If you know how you can get beat but believe you will win this bet 55+/100, you take the side.

And then there are games where the number makes absolutely no sense. You can make an argument for the "wrong" side, but it isn't a very good one at all. One side, with the spread given, is just an overwhelmingly simple pick.

Now if its an opening line, maybe you did just catch them sleeping. But if it has been out for a day or two and 80% of money has poured in on one side and the line hasn't changed, that obviously means that Vegas likes the line where it is.

This means one of two things; The professional bookmakers have made a complete error in judgment and are going to get destroyed on this game (and usually when this is the case, a terribly set line, they correct it by moving it to entice action on the other side), or they are trying to trick you into taking a side that looks like a slam dunk when they know that the other side has a very good shot.

I think I'm smart and I think I'm a decent capper. But I will never try to outsmart the bookmakers. If a line looks like it is giving away money, it probably isn't.

Hope this helps...

[wtf]

dave, i love the way you think! totally agree with your philosophy. hope you keep posting.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I think the RLM strategy loses this week. It's not foolproof. Good luck though.

[VegasDave]

I think the RLM strategy loses this week. It's not foolproof. Good luck though.

I believe Arizona wins and covers... St. Louis is a popular anti-public bet this week.

But of course it isn't foolproof, nothing is.

[Richkas]

These are the only two games I am on so far.

[LT Profits]

So your theory is handicap to find a really big mismatch compared to line, then bet the opposite. I believe fading the avg handicapper might be profitable, because I think they loose more than the vig. But this does seem a bit much.

But there is a Sharp Money element to his plays, as the public is all over the obvious selections while the sharps are holding the seemingly bargain lines steady.

[LT Profits]

Dave,

I have expected to see the RAMS on your list, as they seem to fit your criteria.

P.S., I like the Rams a LOT this week.

[LT Profits]

OOOPS, I didn't see your Arizona post until now. What exactly is a "popular anti-public" pick? LOL

Sort of like Jumbo Shrimp.

[VegasDave]

OOOPS, I didn't see your Arizona post until now. What exactly is a "popular anti-public" pick? LOL

Sort of like Jumbo Shrimp.

lol EXACTLY like jumbo shrimp.

I meant it was popular amongst us forum-dwelling-RLM sharps. Have seen a lot of discussion on that game already.

It doesn't meet my criteria because St. Louis is surging and Arizona has been iffy on the road. St. Louis beat Washington, beat Dallas, and had a very respectable loss VS. New England, covering the spread in all 3. Now they are hosting Arizona and I personally didn't think the spread was that terribly off. It does indeed fit as far as heavy public support (on Zona) and a reverse line movement is concerned, but I treated this as a normal game (non-philosophy for me) because I don't think St. Louis winning this game would be all that crazy.

Good luck on your play!

[LT Profits]

lol EXACTLY like jumbo shrimp.

I meant it was popular amongst us forum-dwelling-RLM sharps. Have seen a lot of discussion on that game already.

It doesn't meet my criteria because St. Louis is surging and Arizona has been iffy on the road. St. Louis beat Washington, beat Dallas, and had a very respectable loss VS. New England, covering the spread in all 3. Now they are hosting Arizona and I personally didn't think the spread was that terribly off. It does indeed fit as far as heavy public support (on Zona) and a reverse line movement is concerned, but I treated this as a normal game (non-philosophy for me) because I don't think St. Louis winning this game would be all that crazy.

Good luck on your play!

[Portlander]

Good luck

although I noticed that the line has gone to +7.5 on Seattle. Do you take last minute changes into account, or does just a viewable RLM at any time of the week fit into your theory.

[VegasDave]

Where did you see that Portlander? I still see it at +6.5 pretty much across the board.

But to answer your question, if it does move up, I wouldn't like the play any less. RLM is just an added bonus; it isn't the backbone of the pick (for me).

[accuscoresucks]

gl usc

cash this register

[VegasDave]

Funny;

2 - 0, my winning percentage rises 1.2%
1 - 1, my winning percentage falls 6.0%
0 - 2, my winning percentage falls 13.1%

Just playing with fire with a record this ridiculous

[Robust]

my numbers say atlanta destroys oakland.. but you got me thinking.. 78% of the bets on Atl and the line will not move.. i have bet against these lines before.. (like last week with miami).. i keep looking at my numbers and cannot find a way Oak wins.. but i might just switch (or avoid the game altogether) as the line is waaay to fishy for me..

and i was on Seattle since the beggining of the week

even posted it as my favorite of the week (or something similar in another thread).

thanks for your hard work bro!! if anything, thinking out these games keeps me very entertained and smiling

Robust

[jimmydingle]

please rank your top 5 in order

[SportNut]

[Legend4Aday]

RLM is just an added bonus; it isn't the backbone of the pick (for me).

Very true

[MakeMoney]

seahawks can't win.

[VegasDave]

seahawks can't win.

But can they cover?

[jimmydingle]

top 5 in order please

[VegasDave]

top 5 in order please

Oakland
Seattle
Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Dallas

[SlappyWhite]

Dave I have been on your mailing list all year and following your phil picks, you are doing great. I got 2 parlays, ML and Spread parlay for raiders and hawks.

[SexyMit]

Especially since they won't change the number off of 3 they are giving it to them at plus money. Which means they want all the money on Atlanta -3 +115. THat should be a tale tell give away right there.

[pavyracer]

I have seen the Falcons play in practice this week. I live 5 min from Flowery Branch. The Raiders will be dismantled by Ryan and Turner today and the defense will score. You heard it here first boys.

Falcons for the max.