Vegas Dave's NFL PHILOSOPHY PICKS 11/2 (11 - 1 ATS This Year!)

[VegasDave]

Dave I have been on your mailing list all year and following your phil picks, you are doing great. I got 2 parlays, ML and Spread parlay for raiders and hawks.

You indeed were one of the first on SBR to sign up, well before I was a philosophy pick celeb. Thank you for that

[Joefox]

I would love to get your NFL Newsletter

Hi. Dave

Is it possible to get your NFL Newsletter sen to my mail?

it is batistacruise@gmail.com

Best of luck

Joe

[VegasDave]

Yeah, I'd take the addy down though now before spammers get it! Thanks for your interest.

[laxdjock]

I'm with you pavy. The lack of line movement is curious..... but lines don't play the game, and ATL is better than OAK in all facets of the game.

[daneblazer]

Atlanta has been awful when playing across country. I'll try to find the stats on games theyve played in the west coast over the years

[Casperwaits]

Your picks and philosophy are right on target!! Love your thinking.

[pavyracer]

I'm with you pavy. The lack of line movement is curious..... but lines don't play the game, and ATL is better than OAK in all facets of the game.

Will you have expected a team with a rookie QB to be favored by more than 3 points on the road? Line movements are meaningless.

Ryan and Turner will feast on Raiders defense. I have seen them how they dismantled the Chiefs at home and they will do the same to the lowely Raiders in Oakland. They were robbed by the refs last week in Philly by the non-muffed punt that would have resulted in the winning TD for the Falcons.

[daneblazer]

they're about 3-9 playing in the mountain and western time zone over the last 10 years. If you throw in St Louis, its worse than that

[Chi_archie]

GL today DAVE.... you are up against a big time regression to the mean pull against your picks...

hope you keep it up though...

[Big_Cheese]

I hate it when the picks look so easy...

Give me Ny Giants to win 35-7

[VegasDave]

GL today DAVE.... you are up against a big time regression to the mean pull against your picks...

hope you keep it up though...

Definitely... I had half a mind to retire

But the way I see it, if I go say 9 - 6 with these for the rest of the year, obviously the record will be less impressive, but it'll still be 60% winners, which can still help the betting community. I'm just taking it one week at a time and trying not to think too much about it or force it.

[jimmydingle]

Oakland
Seattle
Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Dallas

thnks

[I.R.B]

Oakland
Seattle
Tennessee
Tampa Bay
Dallas

Rough week my friend.. Looking for you to bounce back this week.

[VegasDave]

Rough week my friend.. Looking for you to bounce back this week.

Thanks man... I'm still really down but I hope I can bounce back, too. Appreciate the support

[reno cool]

I think Nicky jinxed you.

[VegasDave]

I think Nicky jinxed you.

Just one of those days. It is pretty damn clear to me that Vegas wanted heavy money on Atlanta and Philadelphia, and these two teams covered ridiculously easily (as it looked like they should on the surface)... I also take Dallas to play with some pride in a division rivalry, nope.

Then the favorites I DO give the benefit of the doubt as they are much better on paper than their opponent in Chicago, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville all fail to cover.

It happens. Some days everything you pick is gold; other days everything you pick is dirt. I agree with Nicky that in the long haul everything trends towards 50%. The difference between me and him is that I believe that with hard work, I can get a 2% edge over a coin flip. And I'll keep fighting until I do.

[gm2022]

Just one of those days. It is pretty damn clear to me that Vegas wanted heavy money on Atlanta and Philadelphia, and these two teams covered ridiculously easily (as it looked like they should on the surface)... I also take Dallas to play with some pride in a division rivalry, nope.

Then the favorites I DO give the benefit of the doubt as they are much better on paper than their opponent in Chicago, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville all fail to cover.

It happens. Some days everything you pick is gold; other days everything you pick is dirt. I agree with Nicky that in the long haul everything trends towards 50%. The difference between me and him is that I believe that with hard work, I can get a 2% edge over a coin flip. And I'll keep fighting until I do.

why not a 10% edge?

[reno cool]

I have no doubt that you will, as long as you seek out creative info and stay away from conventional wisdom.

[Dana4U]

VegasDave - looking forward to your commentary on this week's game. Granted we took a whippin' last week; but everyone has an off week. So get those juices flowing again and send out your expectations for this week!