Is there value in always betting on teams from Utah?

[TheCentaur]

Especially in college sports?

I was thinking in college sports, a disproportionate amount of action comes from the team's home states. Granted there is plenty of action across the country on all teams, but the home states of the participants must have a significant effect.

Since at least 63% of Utah is Mormon, and Mormons don't gamble, at least definitely not big money, wouldn't that create value on Utah teams?

Anyone have some data on Utah teams, especially BYU, ATS over the years?

[ProfaneReality]

From memory, Utah (ncaab) was putrid last year ATS, and even worse overall

[TheCentaur]

From memory, Utah (ncaab) was putrid last year ATS, and even worse overall

I'm talking long term though all sports, but mainly college where local team money is a more significant %

[HoulihansTX]

Ever heard of a Captain Mormon?

[ProfaneReality]

If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying money bet on local teams moves lines?

Going to have to strongly disagree.

[MeatWad]

I will definitely be backing BYU in situational spots this year.

[TheCentaur]

If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying money bet on local teams moves lines?

Going to have to strongly disagree.

Right, I'm saying if for example there was no internet of any kind in say Kansas on saturday, the effect on South Florida/Nevada game would be minimal, but it might skew the line of the Kansas/Rice game.

Just a theory, maybe ur right and it has very little to no effect

[rm18]

Only at home, but it has nothing to do with gambling money it is a primarily white teams play better at home theory.

[Emily_Haines]

Utah State, BYU and Utah

Apparently so

Throw out the games where the teams played each other

73-56-2 ATS last five seasons

[TheCentaur]

Emily we're on to something here

I would cut off a finger to go 73-56

[TheCentaur]

Somebody back test it 5 more years and let's see what we've got here

[Romanov]

No guarantee it will continue into the future

[TheCentaur]

No guarantee it will continue into the future

Very true, but backtesting it another 5 years and a logical explanation for the results is about as much as we can hope for

[Romanov]

Very true, but backtesting it another 5 years and a logical explanation for the results is about as much as we can hope for

Agreed. I don't have the time to do this right now, but maybe this weekend if nobody gets to it.

[TheCentaur]

ok so I back tested from 2006 to 1997 and the record ATS was 123-132-4
Once you get back towards the 90's there were more games with no lines thus the relative decrease in events.

This brings the grand total to 196-188-6

Not profitable even with reduced juice

[InTheDrink]

one semi related theory that would make sense is that if you live in an area with strong backing for a particular school(s) then you might find a local who will move lines a little quicker against the school than an online book or vegas...then youd have an edge to play the other way

this used to happen a lot more than it does now before everyone was online

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like the theory but i think a fair number of the utah schools games would have been against lower population areas...

now that utah is in pac 10 maybe utah ATS vs. USC would make sense. or vs. a number of other pac 10 teams

i do like the white teams do relatively better at home argument.

and i have always been curious as to whether mountain region teams build their roster to take advantage of the home field altitude (see mexico's national soccer team record in mexico city). have to admit that i don't know how how alot of places out west actually are. but if they have decent elevation and they aren't grabbing scat back types from california and texas then they are missing out.