Newbies : Do you know what size BR you need to bet $3K on a shitty NCAAFB game

SlickFazzer · 09-01-12, 02:37 PM

I posted yesterday that the biggest problem sports bettors have is that they are under capitalized.

Sam Odom · 09-01-12, 02:40 PM

Slicky .... Saying this is very redundant

But cannot be said enough

onlooker · 09-01-12, 02:42 PM

Most don't know money management. Books love it.

rfr3sh · 09-01-12, 02:44 PM

150,000 would be ok for a 2% bet

Sam Odom · 09-01-12, 02:45 PM

2% on the 1st weekend is too much - IMO

paranoyd androyd · 09-01-12, 02:54 PM

this is a total misconception due to the assumption that everyone who bets on sports is an action/high volume player who will eventually piss their whole roll away regardless.

i.e. spot bettors do not apply the conservative 2-3% per pay rule, not even close. for them, an isolated $3K play with a $30K BR (for example) is not uncommon whatsoever.

Sam Odom · 09-01-12, 02:58 PM

Spot Bettor on the 1st weekend

and on a shitty 2nd tier school

Gotta have real solid 'inside info' to unload in ^ that ^ situation and no one here has it and if they did they would NOT post their play

PAULYPOKER · 09-01-12, 02:58 PM

Bet size amounts only matter to the inexperienced.................

newguy · 09-01-12, 02:58 PM

If I bet 3k, I just need a 3k bankroll. Double it up baby!! So many early season locks today!!!

paranoyd androyd · 09-01-12, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Spot Bettor on the 1st weekend

and on a shitty 2nd tier school

Gotta have real solid 'inside info' to unload in ^ that ^ situation and no one here has it and if they did they would NOT post their play

think you misunderstood me sam. not saying brock is a spot bettor, the point is that the 2-3% "rule" is nowhere near universal as people always talk about it to be, regardless if the wager comes on the 1st wknd or not.

in fact, the first 2-3 weeks in cfb are almost always the softest lines and players usually dominate now. so larger wagers are actually very typical during this time. gl

Sam Odom · 09-01-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by paranoyd androyd

think you misunderstood me sam...

gl

Ok

Good Luck to you and all

capitalist pig · 09-01-12, 03:44 PM

Bankroll management isnt what its cracked up to be, in my case, I spent years of grinding it out, no more. Ive now found it to boring for my taste. I now prefer to take a few shots with my deposit and try to double it up and get my deposit $ the Hell out, then if I double up again I will pull another half out. Win or lose its just entertainment, so I dont take losing badly.

later

Sam Odom · 09-01-12, 03:49 PM

piggy , compounded interest is boring as hell too

ThaTopMoron · 09-01-12, 04:03 PM

don't bet like a pansy now

gotta find those great bets like Buckeyes first game new coach (run up the score) and the Tar Heels with their new coach as well 62-0 win

ProfaneReality · 09-01-12, 04:06 PM

If you aren't betting at least 20% of your available balance on any given wager, you are a gutless punk.

mathdotcom · 09-01-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Assuming there is such think as a Newbie on SBR these days

Try about $200,000.00 min

Given you don't know which side has any EV if any, it's irrelevant as your optimal bet is $0.

MonkeyF0cker · 09-01-12, 06:51 PM

What if I was getting +100 on a -2000 ML? What would my bankroll need to be then?

Duff85 · 09-01-12, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

What if I was getting +100 on a -2000 ML? What would my bankroll need to be then?

Assuming that -2000 is the true probability.

Minimum like $3,315.65

milwaukee mike · 09-01-12, 07:27 PM

as long as i continue to work, and can replenish the bankroll, if i spot a huge opportunity that won't soon come again, i sure as hell am betting more than 2% of my bankroll on it.

kind of silly to deposit 10k, take a 30% bonus with 5x rollover, and then have to make 325 $200 bets

no way am i going to find 50 top-tier opportunities over the course of a season so i should bet way more than 2% on each

crackerjack · 09-01-12, 07:44 PM

What constitutes a shitty game? Best value isn't on the high profile top 20 matchups...

paranoyd androyd · 09-01-12, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

as long as i continue to work, and can replenish the bankroll, if i spot a huge opportunity that won't soon come again, i sure as hell am betting more than 2% of my bankroll on it.

kind of silly to deposit 10k, take a 30% bonus with 5x rollover, and then have to make 325 $200 bets

no way am i going to find 50 top-tier opportunities over the course of a season so i should bet way more than 2% on each

exactly. and no one with a $10K roll plays high volume $200 bets. no one.

think about it this way - those who can comfortably lose $10K value their free time far more than $200/game.

threads like this are just stupid and continue to falsely push the mythical "2-3% unit play rule". talk about very square thinking.

Counterfeit Cash · 09-01-12, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by crackerjack

What constitutes a shitty game? Best value isn't on the high profile top 20 matchups...

Duff85 · 09-01-12, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by paranoyd androyd

exactly. and no one with a $10K roll plays high volume $200 bets. no one.

think about it this way - those who can comfortably lose $10K value their free time far more than $200/game.

We started with $20k and were betting $200 a game. We bet over $150k a month and have never bet more than $800 on a game. Making a reasonably comfortable living off this.

hels · 09-01-12, 10:32 PM

slickfazzer posted the exact same thing yesterday.

paranoyd androyd · 09-01-12, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Duff85

We started with $20k and were betting $200 a game. We bet over $150k a month and have never bet more than $800 on a game. Making a reasonably comfortable living off this.

again, your scenario is an apples to oranges comparison. you're an extremely high-volume player who grinds for a living. nothing wrong with that of course, but that doesn't mean it's the way to go nor does it mean your strategy maximizes profits or time.

in fact, being able to bet $150K in volume per month without busting your $20K roll means that you're a good enough capper, but are simply playing far too many games at your base $200 unit. even worse, you're losing profits because of it.

may i ask how many times your bankroll has breached the $10K level? how about the $5K level? i'd be willing to bet that, at worst, it's happened only a couple times in the former and never in the latter. am i right? answer honestly.

Duff85 · 09-01-12, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by paranoyd androyd

may i ask how many times your bankroll has breached the $10K level? how about the $5K level? i'd be willing to bet that, at worst, it's happened only a couple times in the former and never in the latter. am i right? answer honestly.

Bankroll right now is 40k - mostly due to running like god a couple of months where we won way over expectation. Our aim is to make 2% of our turnover on any month - worst month we've had we lost about $5k. Definitely possible to make money betting super high volume and grinding profits.

The main reason we try to bet smaller is to keep accounts in the game. The cost of losing outs is rough on us.

Resler · 09-01-12, 11:04 PM

To bet 3k ....you only need 3k.

Inkwell77 · 09-01-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Given you don't know which side has any EV if any, it's irrelevant as your optimal bet is $0.

Here is what everyone should be doing in some form imo

Make a number on the game (team a -150, team b -4 pts, etc)
look at the no vig price
if you have some edge then bet some percent of kelly that you feel comfortable with (or just flat bet, because to be honest, thinking one knows the exact specific edge they have on the market is hilarious)
Voila!

Winning is the tough part....

paranoyd androyd · 09-01-12, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by Duff85

Bankroll right now is 40k - mostly due to running like god a couple of months where we won way over expectation. Our aim is to make 2% of our turnover on any month - worst month we've had we lost about $5k. Definitely possible to make money betting super high volume and grinding profits.

The main reason we try to bet smaller is to keep accounts in the game. The cost of losing outs is rough on us.

fair enough and that's to be respected, but it's time to start rethinking your wagering strategy. as suspected, you're leaving substantial profits on the table currently. your fear of losing local(?) or, more likely, offshore outs has caused you to bet defensively.

capping is and will always be the most difficult aspect of the trade. it's time to fix the treasury side of your business (which is not difficult), rather than continue compromising both your profits and time. gl

agendaman · 09-01-12, 11:31 PM

lets enjoy this while we can i mean early college mismatches i won 4 games today giving over 35 pts. in each one nfl. trust me is a whole new piece of work extr.tough to cash every wk. howeve anything is better than that crapshoot baseball my god alabama looks good eh gl all

newguy · 09-01-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Duff85

Bankroll right now is 40k - mostly due to running like god a couple of months where we won way over expectation. Our aim is to make 2% of our turnover on any month - worst month we've had we lost about $5k. Definitely possible to make money betting super high volume and grinding profits.

The main reason we try to bet smaller is to keep accounts in the game. The cost of losing outs is rough on us.

Am I reading this right? You want to make $3k a month (assuming you are looking to make 2% return on the $150k per month you bet?)

Thats what you live off of? $36k per year?

Duff85 · 09-02-12, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by newguy

Am I reading this right? You want to make $3k a month (assuming you are looking to make 2% return on the $150k per month you bet?)

Thats what you live off of? $36k per year?

I could definitely live off 36k tax free a year (Australia). My teaching job doesn't clear a lot more than that.

However I am combining the two at the moment - I am definitely looking to get the betting to a position where I am turning over more each month and then I can scale back my employment somewhat. (Sub teaching would work there)

Albert Pujols · 09-02-12, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by crackerjack

What constitutes a shitty game?

I think what he really means is when the bettor is shitty.

Ez Money 77 · 09-02-12, 02:25 AM

Cracks me up when I read shit like this. I know I have heard it a million times that people should bet like 2% of their bank roll. Who the hell really does this ? I'm gonna guess it's less then 5% of the people on this thread. Who deposits $10k just to bet $200 a game? Anyone? Hell no. I deposit $500 and I guaranfuckintee that I will have all $500 in action on that day and it won't be at $10 a game. Really who deposits $500 and bets $10 on even one game? Anyone ?