Steam Betiing?

[drnkyourmlkshk]

i have been messing around with steam betting and I'm showing very average results in MLB not so bad in WNBA, I have a local and a agent who are both fairly clueless but both pay on time and are nice guys so far. I am barely beating them though and am starting to worry that I might be doing something wrong.

A few questions maybe you sharper minds who have experience in this department can help with.

1. Do I really need to purchase Don Best or is watching Pinny live and sbr live just as effective? I have a friend who has DB and he says it's not as great as what it once was, whatever that means.

2. What time of day is often the best and or the worst?

3. Is there a certain sport that is better than the next when it comes to chasing?

4. If I have no chance of getting limited or banned? Should I be betting a larger percentage of my roll (currently I bet 1-2.5% per game depending on how many plays I see throughout the day) and also should I fluctuate my percentage on bigger moves.

5. I have been doing steam chasing for 3 weeks and am up 6.1 units in the 3 and half months prior with just handicapping and proper bankroll mgmnt I was +21.7 in just bases.

6. If you don't know exactly what and who is moving the line isn't your risk to ruin that much higher?

I'm a college football guy and will not be using steam betting for a sport that I have had a handle on for awhile but I had never bet anything but college football prior to this last year and would like to explore the NFL, NHL, NCAA hoops etc so any ideas for profit would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you for any feedback, MILK

[hutennis]

i have been messing around with steam betting and I'm showing very average results in MLB not so bad in WNBA, I have a local and a agent who are both fairly clueless but both pay on time and are nice guys so far. I am barely beating them though and am starting to worry that I might be doing something wrong.

A few questions maybe you sharper minds who have experience in this department can help with.

1. Do I really need to purchase Don Best or is watching Pinny live and sbr live just as effective? I have a friend who has DB and he says it's not as great as what it once was, whatever that means.

2. What time of day is often the best and or the worst?

3. Is there a certain sport that is better than the next when it comes to chasing?

4. If I have no chance of getting limited or banned? Should I be betting a larger percentage of my roll (currently I bet 1-2.5% per game depending on how many plays I see throughout the day) and also should I fluctuate my percentage on bigger moves.

5. I have been doing steam chasing for 3 weeks and am up 6.1 units in the 3 and half months prior with just handicapping and proper bankroll mgmnt I was +21.7 in just bases.

6. If you don't know exactly what and who is moving the line isn't your risk to ruin that much higher?

I'm a college football guy and will not be using steam betting for a sport that I have had a handle on for awhile but I had never bet anything but college football prior to this last year and would like to explore the NFL, NHL, NCAA hoops etc so any ideas for profit would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you for any feedback, MILK

Just like in stock market when you adding into your stock position that goes up, steam betting (chasing) is essentially process of averaging into the line that goes your way. When you add into winning stock your average price is always below the current market and under ideal scenario, you can build large position and then sell it at the market thus essentially "buying low and selling high" for a prffit.
When you average into the line that goes your way your implied probability is always higher than market and, under ideal scenario you can build nice position and arive at close with a substabtial edge over closing line or "cash out" by taking the other side.


As nice as it all sounds, ideal scenarios are few and far between.
Most of the time you would deal with ugly reversals that would take your edge away in a blink of an eye and leave you with large -EV bet.
So to be seccesful you need to be very smart about a lot of things and the fact that you pay juice on a way up and on a way down does not make your life any esiear.
With that in mind, couple of clueless guys you deal with should be a big help, b/c they may efford you an opportunities that rest of the market will not.

Now to your questions.

1. Do I really need to purchase Don Best or is watching Pinny live and sbr live just as effective? I have a friend who has DB and he says it's not as great as what it once was, whatever that means.

DB is not free at all, so it all depends on your volume

2. What time of day is often the best and or the worst?

There is no such a thing as best time. Opportunities come in a random fashion.

3. Is there a certain sport that is better than the next when it comes to chasing?

Which ever has largest volume and odds swings. Tennis looks good to me.

4. If I have no chance of getting limited or banned? Should I be betting a larger percentage of my roll (currently I bet 1-2.5% per game depending on how many plays I see throughout the day) and also should I fluctuate my percentage on bigger moves.

This should not be your concern. What should, is to have a system in place that will enable you to be big when you have an edge and small when you don't. Only then it is time for sound money management.

5. I have been doing steam chasing for 3 weeks and am up 6.1 units in the 3 and half months prior with just handicapping and proper bankroll mgmnt I was +21.7 in just bases.

Pay no mind to this at all. It is all short term noise.
All your attention should be directed toward having a valid strategy based on full understanding on what you are dealing with.
If you have one results will follow.

6. If you don't know exactly what and who is moving the line isn't your risk to ruin that much higher?

You will never know who and what moves the line.
And t is not about risk of ruin. It is about getting and protecting edge.

GL with your steam chasing. Protect that relationship you have with two clueless guys.
In your situation, that's the best thing you have going for you.

[raiders72001]

I use Sports Options. With the paid line services you get up to date injuries and starting line ups. With preseason football SO shows the QB rotations along with predicted time that the starters will play. If you use multiple on-screen books, then you definitely need a line service. If you use one book, then you can get away with Pinny dynamic.

[minet123]

steam is for the sauna
If you blindly tail or fade steam you will be in the poor house
However steam can be a great tool to add to your handicapping of games

[raiders72001]

steam is for the sauna
If you blindly tail or fade steam you will be in the poor house
However steam can be a great tool to add to your handicapping of games

As a blanket statement, it depends upon the percentage of the move and the sport. You may want to play the other way after it's peaked. You can get tossed for steam chasing so it's not all that bad.

[Duff85]

GL with your steam chasing. Protect that relationship you have with two clueless guys.
In your situation, that's the best thing you have going for you.

I love you hutennis. People like you keep my edge.

OP search function is your friend - hundred threads in here on steam chasing.

[hutennis]

I love you hutennis. People like you keep my edge.

Well, somebody must be losing to us both.
I'm up around 3% on money at risk since I started trading sports with no losing week for almost a year now (about 1500 trades)

Still curious though. I'm sure you don't want me to stop contributing to your edge but still...
What did you find in my short wright up that got you all excited?
All this "I love you " and shit. Gotta be big. Can you give me a hint?

[cyberbabble]

If you have two locals booking bets at lines that are significantly different from market/Pinnacle lines there are only two things that can happen. They eventually tell you to go elsewhere or they go broke.

There are probably better ways to take advantage of them than steam chasing. Search here for arb/scalp, betting stale lines, beating novig Pinnacle lines. After looking around SBR, do the same using Google.

Open up some accounts with online books. You will get some more opportunities vs. the locals. Posters sportsbook poll at the left top of the page are some that are probably OK. You can bet the bookies and bet the other way online and get some losing bets with the bookies at no real cost to you. Provides some cover while your taking their money.

These other ways are probably less risky than steam chasing.

I'd say good luck but you don't need it. Just not very bad luck. Finding these guys is all the luck you need.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Thank you very much for the feedback. Both paid me in full today but 1 did cut my limits but only a 25% decrease from our original agreement.
The second flat out told me he lays everything off and has over 100 clients. I also know he knows what Im doing but doesnt seem concerned at all yet..
I would like to get a online book whos maybe not as sharp and quick at moving their numbers as Im trying very hard not to burn out either outlet. I tried using live books this weekend and it was impossible obviously.
Anyone know who might have the least sharp clientele and might be even 1-2 minutes behind pinnacle moves normally?

[mathdotcom]

Just like in stock market when you adding into your stock position that goes up, steam betting (chasing) is essentially process of averaging into the line that goes your way. When you add into winning stock your average price is always below the current market and under ideal scenario, you can build large position and then sell it at the market thus essentially "buying low and selling high" for a prffit.
When you average into the line that goes your way your implied probability is always higher than market and, under ideal scenario you can build nice position and arive at close with a substabtial edge over closing line or "cash out" by taking the other side.


As nice as it all sounds, ideal scenarios are few and far between. Not true at all.
Most of the time you would deal with ugly reversals that would take your edge away in a blink of an eye and leave you with large -EV bet. Possible but just as likely to occur as the line continuing to steam and your EV grows.
So to be seccesful you need to be very smart about a lot of things and the fact that you pay juice on a way up and on a way down does not make your life any esiear. The whole point of steam chasing is not to hedge your bet. You are a tool for suggesting this.
With that in mind, couple of clueless guys you deal with should be a big help, b/c they may efford you an opportunities that rest of the market will not.

Now to your questions.



DB is not free at all, so it all depends on your volume


There is no such a thing as best time. Opportunities come in a random fashion.
You are clearly clueless on the topic. The last hour before games go off is obviously one of the best times.


Which ever has largest volume and odds swings. Tennis looks good to me.



This should not be your concern. What should, is to have a system in place that will enable you to be big when you have an edge and small when you don't. Only then it is time for sound money management.
This makes no sense. Are you suggesting he make sure he has a big enough balance in a sportsbook so he can bet what he wants? DUH


Pay no mind to this at all. It is all short term noise.
All your attention should be directed toward having a valid strategy based on full understanding on what you are dealing with.
If you have one results will follow.



You will never know who and what moves the line.
And t is not about risk of ruin. It is about getting and protectingedge.

GL with your steam chasing. Protect that relationship you have with two clueless guys.
In your situation, that's the best thing you have going for you.

[mathdotcom]

steam is for the sauna
If you blindly tail or fade steam you will be in the poor house
However steam can be a great tool to add to your handicapping of games

Do you not realize the glaring contradiction in these two statements?

[mathdotcom]

i have been messing around with steam betting and I'm showing very average results in MLB not so bad in WNBA, I have a local and a agent who are both fairly clueless but both pay on time and are nice guys so far. I am barely beating them though and am starting to worry that I might be doing something wrong.

A few questions maybe you sharper minds who have experience in this department can help with.

1. Do I really need to purchase Don Best or is watching Pinny live and sbr live just as effective? I have a friend who has DB and he says it's not as great as what it once was, whatever that means.

2. What time of day is often the best and or the worst?

3. Is there a certain sport that is better than the next when it comes to chasing?

4. If I have no chance of getting limited or banned? Should I be betting a larger percentage of my roll (currently I bet 1-2.5% per game depending on how many plays I see throughout the day) and also should I fluctuate my percentage on bigger moves.

5. I have been doing steam chasing for 3 weeks and am up 6.1 units in the 3 and half months prior with just handicapping and proper bankroll mgmnt I was +21.7 in just bases.

6. If you don't know exactly what and who is moving the line isn't your risk to ruin that much higher?

I'm a college football guy and will not be using steam betting for a sport that I have had a handle on for awhile but I had never bet anything but college football prior to this last year and would like to explore the NFL, NHL, NCAA hoops etc so any ideas for profit would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you for any feedback, MILK

Experience will answer most of those questions.

Fact: it is an +EV strategy
Fact: you will be a long term loser if you buy back unless the local's odds are way off. Either way buying back is a terrible idea.
Fact: hutennis does not know what he's talking about (see above)

[hutennis]

Fact: hutennis does not know what he's talking about

Look. You simply not qualified to make this statement.

You fancy yourself as some kind of local handicapping authority and it's fine, but steam chasing, in a nutshell, is a trading strategy, and,
based on your ignorant comments it's very easy to say that when it comes to trading markets, any market, you don't have a first clue.
It is also very easy to say that opinionated smart ass like you would be destroyed there in no time at all.

So stick to doing, and commenting on, something where you at least can be right often enough to be taken semi seriously.

Passing ignorant judgments on trading related issues is not a smart thing for you to do.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Look. You simply not qualified to make this statement.

You fancy yourself as some kind of local handicapping authority and it's fine, but steam chasing, in a nutshell, is a trading strategy, and,
based on your ignorant comments it's very easy to say that when it comes to trading markets, any market, you don't have a first clue.
It is also very easy to say that opinionated smart ass like you would be destroyed there in no time at all.

So stick to doing, and commenting on, something where you at least can be right often enough to be taken semi seriously.

Passing ignorant judgments on trading related issues is not a smart thing for you to do.

True. Steam chasing is extremely sophisticated. Difficult concept to comprehend.

[hutennis]

True. Steam chasing is extremely sophisticated. Difficult concept to comprehend.

Conceptually, there is nothing easier than making money in the markets.
Buy low - sell high. What can be easier than that?

Somehow, it feels a bit different once you start doing it.

[mathdotcom]

Look. You simply not qualified to make this statement.

You fancy yourself as some kind of local handicapping authority and it's fine, but steam chasing, in a nutshell, is a trading strategy, and,
based on your ignorant comments it's very easy to say that when it comes to trading markets, any market, you don't have a first clue.
It is also very easy to say that opinionated smart ass like you would be destroyed there in no time at all.

So stick to doing, and commenting on, something where you at least can be right often enough to be taken semi seriously.

Passing ignorant judgments on trading related issues is not a smart thing for you to do.

Here you go again with your favorite, ad hominem attack, which is attacking the person (hominem) instead of what they say.

[mathdotcom]

Conceptually, there is nothing easier than making money in the markets.
Buy low - sell high. What can be easier than that?

Somehow, it feels a bit different once you start doing it.

Unless you have available to you an extremely efficient and liquid market with miniscule commission, then the selling part is extremely -EV.
The closest option American sports bettors have are Pinnacle and Matchbook, where the former fails on miniscule commission, and Matchbook usually fails on some combination of all 3.

Here's a test for you hutennis. You have plenty of funds in both Pinnacle and Sportsbook Z. A game between Team A and Team B begins at 7PM. You know nothing about this sport but Pinnacle takes $50,000 on the moneyline.

6PM at Pinnacle
Team A -104
Team B -104
6PM at Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

6.10PM Pinnacle:
Team A +109
Team B -117
6.10PM Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q1: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

Suppose you did not bet. Now it is 6.30.
6.30PM Pinnacle
Team A +110
Team B -118
6.30PM Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q2: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

Suppose you still have not bet.

6.50PM Pinnacle
Team A +111
Team B -119
6.50PM Sportsbook A
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q3: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

If you don't get this right then you have zero credibility and should basically just fukk off

[drnkyourmlkshk]

After you two get done outsmarting and insulting one and another can we possibly get back to the question I asked last night?
Im getting fairly tuned into what works and doesn't in the steam chase methods. I had a very good weekend without chasing in college football. I'd like to lay off for awhile the guy who cut my limits as Im concerned he wont be able to pay me if I continue to hammer him with large steam plays from all sports.
Any books that are even 1 minute behind in the line move would be greatly appreciated.
Id really like to not mess this opportunity up this is alot of money for a guy like me.
Pms are fine obv.

[mathdotcom]

This is why America is fukked

Everybody wants their hands held

80% of your questions are answered in this thread. And I say 80% since #5 isn't even a question.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Mathy, it's REALLY difficult to look at a line service or line histories and figure out what books are slow to move on my own. It's really inconvenient to search for threads/discussions that already cover these topics. I really want to make money doing this, but I want to do as little legwork and thinking as possible.

Mathy, please help.

Thanks in advance.

[mathdotcom]

No problem Monkey, I really respect people who can't think for themselves and will bend over backwards to do their work for them.

Don't know how to tie your shoes?

Can't figure out where the nearest convenience store is?

Baffled by how to tell time?

Call Mathy at 1-800-BIG-BABY

We are here around the clock to help carry you through life, so call now!

[acl123]

Mathy and MOnkey can you tell me how to become wealthy wagering on sports?
Sorry i will go back to PT.

[mathdotcom]

That's 100x more acceptable to ask than for us to compare the vig on MLs vs Spreads for you.

My answer is to go read all of Fishhead's posts. Might take you a few months but hey it's not easy.

[Duff85]

Mathy, it's REALLY difficult to look at a line service or line histories and figure out what books are slow to move on my own. It's really inconvenient to search for threads/discussions that already cover these topics. I really want to make money doing this, but I want to do as little legwork and thinking as possible.

Mathy, please help.

Thanks in advance.

Spot on. The constant - how do I chase steam threads in the Think Tank annoy the piss out of me. They also give HUTennis another opportunity to try to troll valuable +ev information out of profitable sports investors with his - "well tell me how I am wrong" response.

HTT has degenerated into "Look I made a model that crushes the sample that I used to make it with" and "Tell me how to make money".

[mathdotcom]

Duffman A++

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Wow my bad didn't realize I was dealing with the elite of the sports betting world. I'll now let you guys get back to giving each other tests. I didn't realize I was asking any questions that were asked often nor was i upsetting anyone by doing so. I'll now do the leg work I had already planned on doing but it's good to know that I can always come here and be treated like a imbecile for asking very valid questions in the future. Anytime you are in LV please find me so I can bow to your abilities of treating a new comer with a random question or two.
Class acts here. Mods please lock thread. Thanks MILK

[MonkeyF0cker]

Wow my bad didn't realize I was dealing with the elite of the sports betting world. I'll now let you guys get back to giving each other tests. I didn't realize I was asking any questions that were asked often nor was i upsetting anyone by doing so. I'll now do the leg work I had already planned on doing but it's good to know that I can always come here and be treated like a imbecile for asking very valid questions in the future. Anytime you are in LV please find me so I can bow to your abilities of treating a new comer with a random question or two.
Class acts here. Mods please lock thread. Thanks MILK

You were kindly told to use the search function earlier. You ignored it.

OP search function is your friend - hundred threads in here on steam chasing.

Then, not once but twice, you asked for information that anyone with three brain cells could deduce how to acquire for themselves. I mean, you brought up line services like DB yourself in your first post.

Anyone know who might have the least sharp clientele and might be even 1-2 minutes behind pinnacle moves normally?

So, there are one of two possibilities at work here:

1. You're too stupid to figure out how to tell if a book doesn't move quickly enough.
2. You're a lazy asshole that wants others to do your work for you.

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt on your intelligence and go with number two - especially since you seemed to ignore the previous post that had already told you to search the forum. So, please tell us again how wronged you were.

[TheCentaur]

Hey guys, I just saw this thread but don't have time to read it all. Question though, is steam betting profitable and what's the best way to do it? 2 points to the best answer

[Okiejoe]

First of all if your chasing steam your not getting the best of the line. YOU HAVE TO BE THE ORIGINATOR. Dont chase you might as well pick the other side. That steam is hits around 55%. So to make moeny you have to have an extremely high bank roll. Theres syndicates that bet 20 million a week just to make a couple hundred thousand. And there playing 40 games a day. Theres no need for you to get Sports options because unless you plan on doing this full time its pointless. 17 hour days sitting in a chair looking at a monitor. Theres guys making 4000 trades a day and scalping off a dollar here and there. Also, nascar and golf and soccer are easier to manipulate. Think of ot this way NFL = AAPL(STOCK) you can bet 100,000 and the stock wont even flucuate. Now take Nascar=(Penny Stock) 100,000 can be a huge swing in the stock price. Stay away from the NFL (not for long) because the average guy will loss money.

[TheCentaur]

Stay away from the NFL (not for long) because the average guy will loss money.

I'm up 30 bets over the last two years in the NFL, ask me how

[Okiejoe]

I'm up 30 bets over the last two years in the NFL, ask me how

Well I know how you got LUCKY

[Okiejoe]

Unless you have available to you an extremely efficient and liquid market with miniscule commission, then the selling part is extremely -EV.
The closest option American sports bettors have are Pinnacle and Matchbook, where the former fails on miniscule commission, and Matchbook usually fails on some combination of all 3.

Here's a test for you hutennis. You have plenty of funds in both Pinnacle and Sportsbook Z. A game between Team A and Team B begins at 7PM. You know nothing about this sport but Pinnacle takes $50,000 on the moneyline.

6PM at Pinnacle
Team A -104
Team B -104
6PM at Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

6.10PM Pinnacle:
Team A +109
Team B -117
6.10PM Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q1: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

Suppose you did not bet. Now it is 6.30.
6.30PM Pinnacle
Team A +110
Team B -118
6.30PM Sportsbook Z
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q2: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

Suppose you still have not bet.

6.50PM Pinnacle
Team A +111
Team B -119
6.50PM Sportsbook A
Team A -110
Team B -110

Q3: Do you make a bet(s) here? If so, what bet(s)?

If you don't get this right then you have zero credibility and should basically just fukk off

Team B. When you see a pinnacle lean you would lay the -110 or -105 if you had that out. Ultimately you would wait to untill pinnacle -119 but theres really no way to know that. But theres alot of factors is that square money or sharp money. This is kind of a open question. You could also take the plus +111 and make 1 cent just depends on how you play and how much you like to actualy gamble.

[TheCentaur]

Well I know how you got LUCKY

No, I'm not counting NFL preseason in which I'm down 26 units