What are the odds of this in baseball??????

MagicDiceFlow · 08-17-12, 10:14 PM

It's karma paying you back for all those racist remarks and hatred you got built up. It's only fitting that you got buried today by a black female tennis player and a venezuelan. Serves you right.

baskets · 08-17-12, 10:18 PM

chino d mierda. chupame el pene, puto

El Nino · 08-17-12, 10:55 PM

Save $ on No run in the 1st, take Spanish lessons.

baskets · 08-17-12, 10:56 PM

otro bobo. me cago en la boca d tu puta madre muerta

frizzelli · 08-17-12, 10:59 PM

Baskets will be back on review momentarily so ignore this clown.

lunchbawks · 08-17-12, 11:16 PM

1st inning bets are crap

both teams best hitters get AB's and often pitchers have slow starts

baskets · 08-17-12, 11:20 PM

too many math guys in this thread giving answers

greenhippo · 08-18-12, 12:03 AM

Baskets, ya fukk

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1849674-dudley-baksets-mayan-lolsmcwinsey-ralphie-beantown-nba-profosor-check.html

jaygator · 08-18-12, 12:40 AM

You reap what you sew.

ThaTopMoron · 08-18-12, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by baskets

Got fukked in the ass again.

Had No Score in 1st Inning for BAL/DET game spread across different books to win 562.42.

Bottom 1st inning, 2 outs, no runners.

Cabrera batting. 30 homers on the year. 1-2 count. Down to the last strike.

What are the odds that Cabrera blasts a homer in that spot with that count????

With all his AB's he's getting a homer about 6.4% of the time...... so you put him in the count at that situation..... w/ 2 outs....... this has to be less than 1% chance. What happens?

HOME RUN

if you haven't learned how to properly spot bet with the no score prop by now, well... the books must love you then

did you also bet no score 1st because it was Weaver vs Shields lol... the BATS come to PLAY

baskets · 08-18-12, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by jaygator

You reap what you sew.

lol, like the outcome of a fukking sporting event is decided upon by what I post

fuking retards

I am asking a question that all you math geniuses get your super hard math c.ocks all excited about. I don't give a rat's ass if you have a value judgement or whatever you want to blast off out of your shithole....

I want to know the odds of that fukking puto blasting a homerun w/ a 1-2 count and 2 outs...... it has to be less than 1% chance w/ that count and 2 outs.

break out the fukking math, math geniuses. someone tell me that was less than 1% chance

dice · 08-18-12, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by baskets

too many math guys in this thread giving answers

An event either happens or not. Boolean = 0 or 1.

Statistical models are only as good as the input.

baskets · 08-18-12, 02:08 AM

thx for the semi answer

I flip on the game and they have a math guy on..... and he spits out %'s.

he whacks a homer or he doesn't whack a homer doesn't work for me.

if that situation is replayed 100 times, he homers 1 time........ less than once........ 3 times?

venture · 08-18-12, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by baskets

lol, like the outcome of a fukking sporting event is decided upon by what I post

fuking retards

I am asking a question that all you math geniuses get your super hard math c.ocks all excited about. I don't give a rat's ass if you have a value judgement or whatever you want to blast off out of your shithole....

I want to know the odds of that fukking puto blasting a homerun w/ a 1-2 count and 2 outs...... it has to be less than 1% chance w/ that count and 2 outs.

break out the fukking math, math geniuses. someone tell me that was less than 1% chance

52% of the time it happens every time

baskets · 08-18-12, 02:18 AM

I just want an answer

99% of the time this fukking shit happens when I bet it

cannot be greater than 1%.

I will take this to a fukking university math professor to confirm that I am cursed

jaygator · 08-18-12, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by baskets

lol, like the outcome of a fukking sporting event is decided upon by what I post

Im afraid so, problem is since your brain is twisted about life, it obviously seeps into your betting thought pattern also.

PickWinnerAllDay · 08-18-12, 02:41 AM

He homers 6% of his at bats. Chances of him homering down to 2 strikes is probably 4% or so. Quit crying.

Seto · 08-18-12, 02:48 AM

That's really not such a bad beat. It's harsh, but to be honest you'd only had 5 outs out of 6. It's not like you'd had 26 out of 27 outs and then 3 consecutive hits followed by a grand slam burn you by the hook.

Or maybe you could have gone thorugh this like I did?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avJmMXkRDJc

Seto · 08-18-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

He homers 6% of his at bats. Chances of him homering down to 2 strikes is probably 4% or so. Quit crying.

PickWinnerAllDay · 08-18-12, 02:51 AM

Also, a HR is not the only way you are beat. With the 4 hole hitter up next (assuming it was Fielder tonight?) then the chances of a run in that spot are probably as high as 8% even with 2 outs and that count.

NittanyLionsFan · 08-18-12, 02:52 AM

If you think that up to the pitch where he hit the HR that you had a 99% chance of winning, you are a God damn clueless ******* person. I know my math/stats/have a degree in actuarial science/etc and I can promise you the chance of you losing that bet is WAY higher than 1%.

MagicDiceFlow · 08-18-12, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by NittanyLionsFan

If you think that up to the pitch where he hit the HR that you had a 99% chance of winning, you are a God damn clueless ******* person. I know my math/stats/have a degree in actuarial science/etc and I can promise you the chance of you losing that bet is WAY higher than 1%.

You have to excuse Baskets. He doesnt have that many brain cells. That's what happens when you live in a tightly confined trailer home with limited oxygen.

NittanyLionsFan · 08-18-12, 05:17 PM

The chance of him hitting a HR on that exact pitch is honestly probably greater than 1%.

Then there's the chance he ends up drawing a walk in the AB, or singles, or doubles.

Then the inning can go on. Forever. There is a 0.0000000000000000000000000000000001% chance that they score 483 runs in that inning.

You think he either hits a HR on that exact pitch and if he doesn't then they can't score? LMAO

You are an IDIOT.

Djstucky · 08-18-12, 05:31 PM

I'm not sure what % he hits a HR with 2 out bottom of the first no runners on and a 1-2 count however I am 100% certain when he does if you bet $562.42 backing no score in the first inning you are light $562.42 100% of the time...

MagicDiceFlow · 08-18-12, 05:47 PM

First of all, the prop he chose had very limited and plain stupid value. For starters, look at the factors. You don't bet a No Run First Inning against two good offense american league teams and especially against Detroit when your 3rd & 4th batters are Cabrera & Fielder. So what if Verlander is pitching and shuts out Baltimore, that's only half of the equation. Even with two outs in that inning, if Cabrera or Fielder gets an at bat, that chance of scoring sky rockets. It also goes much deeper than your 1-2 pitch count probability. You forgot the most important factor......the Tommy Hunter probability. Why would you bet this prop with a certified gas can like Hunter pitching??.....its just plain idiotic.

This No Run prop bet is a square as hell bet and bookies love them to death. That's why almost every book offers them unlike several years ago when only a handful did.

It's easy money for the books and they laugh all the way to the bank when knuckleheads like Baskets bet them.

nic9212 · 08-18-12, 08:53 PM

I feel your frustration