Mets (Harvey) +150 over Cincy (Bailey) is my play this evening.

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65682

    #1
    Mets (Harvey) +150 over Cincy (Bailey) is my play this evening.
    Few reasons.

    I like Harvey, I liked him from his call up last month, I still think the kid will be a solid #2 starter (if not an ace) in the years to come.

    This is his fifth start, the novelty of 'being in the show' has worn off, I think he's settled in.
    Three of this four starts have been very good. SD roughed him up for five runs, take that out of the equation, his other three starts have been 2 earned runs, 2 earned runs, 0 earned runs in his debut.
    Not his fault, the Mets bats got him 1 run in the SF loss and 0 runs in the Brave loss, he held their bats down, he did his part.

    Kid strikes out more than 1 per inning, Cincy has a penchant for striking out a lot.
    Advantage to the Mets that Cincy has never seen his stuff before, ever.

    Bailey is a pedestrian like pitcher. pretty much mediocre numbers across the board, except for strikeouts, his K per nine ratio is good.

    Bailey has been awful his past three starts.

    David Wright has owned him in the past, 5 for 9 says so.
    Rest of the Mets has hit him in the past, overall 25 for 71 is just enough of a cross sampling that tells me Bailey doesn't really fool the Mets.

    Another factor, Mets don't roll over like some MLB teams (Red Sox come to mind)
    Mets haven't looked sharp in their last two, doesn't mean they pack it in tonight.
    Mets play for Collins, I expect them to get to Bailey for five tonight, I expect a seven inning eight K performance from Wonder Kid tonight also.

    If you aren't comfortable backing the Mets, pass or fade, I got a good feel for this one tonight, doesn't mean it hits, I just like the 3:2 value here.

    A lot

    200 gets me 300.

    Good luck all
  • Balco10
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-11-10
    • 5478

    #2
    On it at +144 Nash...BOL
    Comment
    • You mad bro
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-15-12
      • 16641

      #3
      Gl !!!
      Comment
      • KingKolzig
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-02-10
        • 5550

        #4
        good write up makes sense
        Comment
        • Ghenghis Kahn
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 19734

          #5
          i wouldn't bet on the mutts. they're last in runs scored in august. unless you think harvey's gonna pitch a shutout, they certainly aren't gonna out hit cincy.
          Comment
          • Hawkeye2011
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-12-11
            • 840

            #6
            Ill tail ya....gl
            Comment
            • Smoke
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-09-09
              • 48111

              #7
              Good luck stevie
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65682

                #8
                Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn
                i wouldn't bet on the mutts. they're last in runs scored in august. unless you think harvey's gonna pitch a shutout, they certainly aren't gonna out hit cincy.
                It's not a play for everybody, I like it, I can relate as to why you may not.

                g/l tonight
                Comment
                • shimeon40
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-15-12
                  • 2319

                  #9
                  only reason i'm on mets is because the pricks got wiped yesterday and 9 times out of ten teams then reverse the result..mlb is like a bad movie script
                  Comment
                  • shimeon40
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-15-12
                    • 2319

                    #10
                    all this analysis is bs..just try follow part 2 of a bad movie...the good guys end up winning.
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65682

                      #11
                      Originally posted by shimeon40
                      all this analysis is bs..just try follow part 2 of a bad movie...the good guys end up winning.
                      Thanks for dropping by, your astute, painstaking analysis is always appreciated.
                      Comment
                      • shimeon40
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-15-12
                        • 2319

                        #12
                        Comment
                        • TheJettylife
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 05-02-12
                          • 171

                          #13
                          Nash your picks are always well calculated and have great reasoning. Thanks for posting and giving such great insight I will always tail your plays. GL on it with ya!
                          Comment
                          • shimeon40
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-15-12
                            • 2319

                            #14
                            oh shit..sorry..can see you put alot of thought into this pick..all i'm saying i hope your right and all your hard work pays off later.
                            Comment
                            • You mad bro
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-15-12
                              • 16641

                              #15
                              Originally posted by shimeon40
                              Look I can laugh to

                              Feel so special
                              Comment
                              • shimeon40
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-15-12
                                • 2319

                                #16
                                You are "special" mad bro..your unique.
                                Comment
                                • Brock Landers
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 06-30-08
                                  • 45359

                                  #17
                                  Fuk the Mets, that team is complete garbage, they really are a disgrace
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65682

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Brock Landers
                                    Fuk the Mets, that team is complete garbage, they really are a disgrace
                                    Spot play Brock, it's a spot play my man.
                                    Comment
                                    • Big Bear
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 11-01-11
                                      • 43253

                                      #19
                                      Dude u might as well burn your money if your going to bet on the Mets.

                                      Mets can't score. They will be lucky to put up 2 runs.
                                      Comment
                                      • stevenash
                                        Moderator
                                        • 01-17-11
                                        • 65682

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Big Bear
                                        Dude u might as well burn your money if your going to bet on the Mets.

                                        Mets can't score. They will be lucky to put up 2 runs.
                                        Fade me, it's all good.
                                        Comment
                                        • shimeon40
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-15-12
                                          • 2319

                                          #21
                                          should i take the mets..they were pathetic yesterday..dad picked them and they didn't give a yelp...mets just might lose 2 in a row..did u see a spark there yesterday steve?..anything that makes u feel they can turn it around in a day..not talking stats..a spark ...something yesterday.
                                          Comment
                                          • ridims
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-15-10
                                            • 3863

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Brock Landers
                                            Fuk the Mets, that team is complete garbage, they really are a disgrace
                                            pounding mets now. thanks brock
                                            Comment
                                            • ridims
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-15-10
                                              • 3863

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Big Bear
                                              Dude u might as well burn your money if your going to bet on the Mets.

                                              Mets can't score. They will be lucky to put up 2 runs.
                                              bookies love you.

                                              thanks steve, i'm with you.
                                              Comment
                                              • stevenash
                                                Moderator
                                                • 01-17-11
                                                • 65682

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by shimeon40
                                                should i take the mets..they were pathetic yesterday..dad picked them and they didn't give a yelp...mets just might lose 2 in a row..did u see a spark there yesterday steve?..anything that makes u feel they can turn it around in a day..not talking stats..a spark ...something yesterday.
                                                How many times have you seen a team score 13 runs on a Friday, 9 on a Saturday, you bet them up on a Sunday, just to see the team you backed lose 7-1.

                                                How many times have you seen a team lose 5-0 on Friday, then lose 9-2 on a Saturday, you fade that team on Sunday, just to see you get burned 11-4?

                                                This is a spot play, I look for live dogs in spots that have value, the Mets have a live arm going for them tonight, with hitters that have hit the opposing pitcher before. I've said it earlier, I'll say it again, this is a team managed by a manager that won't let them lay down, because he'll put his size ten up their collective asses.

                                                If the Mets go down, so be it, but the team I'm backing will put out an effort tonight.
                                                Comment
                                                • shimeon40
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-15-12
                                                  • 2319

                                                  #25
                                                  thats all we ask...effort!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pattymayo
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-19-09
                                                    • 10221

                                                    #26
                                                    Haven't you guys figured out baseball yet??

                                                    What happened yesterday or the day before that has zero bearing on what happens in the next days game.

                                                    I'm on mets too... Only problem with Harvey is he's been a bit wild , walking a lot of guys . But Homer is nothing special , if Mets are to hit tonigt is the night
                                                    Comment
                                                    • R.P. McMurphy
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 06-15-12
                                                      • 9654

                                                      #27
                                                      On the Muts with ya Nash and nice write -up. Spot plays boys.... nobody except myself and a few others probably thought the Muts would beat the Braves Sunday and what happened
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SteelRain
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-13-12
                                                        • 2806

                                                        #28
                                                        Good Luck

                                                        I took the Mets and As in a parlay for +248
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65682

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by SteelRain
                                                          Good Luck

                                                          I took the Mets and As in a parlay for +248
                                                          Thank you sir.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • konck
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-17-06
                                                            • 12554

                                                            #30
                                                            Im a Mets fan I watch the guys go thru the minor league system. Watched Harvey AA and AAA coming up each time he was a slow stater so it surprised me he won his first game. Here's what I think about the kid...great stuff of course but in SD he got shell shocked right away 1st inning they tagged him. Watching him that game reminded me of watching Pelfrey, he was lost Harvey seemed dazed. Then last game he gets tagged for an HR 1st ininng again but this time he battles he doesnt go strange. I think the kids going to be a good 3 or 4 man in the rotation. I have been watching Wheeler they kept him to long in AA he lost interest moved him up to Buff had the usual adjustments but seems like his sinking FB is the real deal he has a wider range of pitches than Harvey but Harvey's duece is better. Met have 3 guys in Advanced A ball that throw 95 to over 100 Tapia breaks triple digits Montero maybe be the best of the 3 with his combo of pitches (he has been shut down for the season on pitch limit) Fulmer is a nice future Met also.
                                                            Going with ya on Harvey tonight I bet him last game also.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • konck
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-17-06
                                                              • 12554

                                                              #31
                                                              Nice thing about living in Florida I get to watch some of the kids coming up.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #32
                                                                like muts myself but havnt played yet, debating between 1st 5 or gm? kinda like the idea of taking mets pen out of the equation..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • stevenash
                                                                  Moderator
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 65682

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by konck
                                                                  Nice thing about living in Florida I get to watch some of the kids coming up.
                                                                  Hardly a Mets fan, I'm a baseball fan first, Yankees fan second, not the other way around, Mets have some pieces, and minor league system is good. I like Thole for some reason, I just do, Valderspin rubs me the wrong way, but he's got hustle........
                                                                  Love Collins as your skipper.

                                                                  I'm in Fairfield Ct, I watched Harvey pitch HS out of New London Ct (Fitch HS) when he was striking out every Connecticut hot shot batter, where he was the talk of the state. Used to watch Charlie Morton out of Redding HS Ct. here too.

                                                                  Harvey was a good kid in HS, good head.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mantle7
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-05-12
                                                                    • 3138

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I watched the Mets game yesterday and it just seems they have zero confidence in their bats. David Wright was just hacking at sliders in the dirt that weren't even close. Ad then you got the pen... Then again sometimes the best plays are "gut" plays though. I'm gonna take the Under. BOL. I would actually like to see the Mets win.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • briedward
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-24-12
                                                                      • 982

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I would love to tail Steve, but unfortunately I can't get my bet placed at the moment. BOL.
                                                                      Comment
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