Let's Talk NFL Week 1 Line Movement

[dodger33]

Three main games I care about are


ATL @ KC +1
SD @ OAK +1.5
INDY @ CHI -10




I think Chicago closes at 10.5 (unless this Luck train gains momentum. then i could see a -9.5), Oakland ends up favored, and KC doesn't move but a point either way.


Feel free to post up any other games so we can get a healthy discussion going.

[Nick Papageorgio]

Colts no brainer of the century. Bears D is soft as a pandas belly.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Like the Chiefs to cover at home. ATL is overrated imo.

[Smoke]

Colts are a lock moneyline and spread

Luck = Rookie of the year

[statnerds]

loving Broncos at home against a re-vamped and over-rated Steelers' D.

[k13]

I don't see why Oakland would end up being favored?

[dodger33]

Chargers are notoriously very slow starters. They started 4-1 last year (lost to pats in ne) but all the wins were mostly at home and against subpar teams miami, kc, vikings, @broncos. I mean the qb's they beat are literally all bagging groceries this year. mcnabb, cassel (the only decent one had half of a team left after all their injuries), matt moore/chad henne, and then kyle orton. They then proceed to lose 6 in a row. The team is a fraud. They have no depth at RB and they have a china doll in Matthews. Their o-line is a patch work quilt and they lost their best receiver. Tell me why this line wouldn't get sharp action.

[dodger33]

loving Broncos at home against a re-vamped and over-rated Steelers' D.

I could definitely see some big cash coming in on Peytons first game back and moving this line back to 3. It is low right now because of uncertainties in Peytons health but everything looks to be okay. This line should close -3

[dodger33]

Like the Chiefs to cover at home. ATL is overrated imo.

Chiefs win the west this year. (coming from a bronco fan) Unless Peyton has the best year of his career this is the chiefs division for the taking if they stay healthy. Top 5 defense in the NFL will shut down a bad road team week 1.

[dodger33]

One decent game and all aboard the Luck train... hahaha
Last i checked even Jesus Christ would need a halfway decent line and a receiver that could catch the ball. Luck may be the best rookie qb to come out in a very long time but the Colts have serious issues and that's just on offense. They have 0 depth anywhere and might end up with the worst defense this year. I pray this line comes off of 10 because it would be a gift.

[k13]

Chargers are notoriously very slow starters. They started 4-1 last year (lost to pats in ne) but all the wins were mostly at home and against subpar teams miami, kc, vikings, @broncos. I mean the qb's they beat are literally all bagging groceries this year. mcnabb, cassel (the only decent one had half of a team left after all their injuries), matt moore/chad henne, and then kyle orton. They then proceed to lose 6 in a row. The team is a fraud. They have no depth at RB and they have a china doll in Matthews. Their o-line is a patch work quilt and they lost their best receiver. Tell me why this line wouldn't get sharp action.

Line is already going the other way......

Not saying they win.

[GunShard]

I don't see why Oakland would end up being favored?

Because of this game.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2011-2012/boxscore29471.html

[GunShard]

Pay attention to both Line movement and Value movement. Biggest misconception to forget Value movement.

[GunShard]

I still predict RG3 being the offensive rookie of the year.

[Goat Milk]

atlanta will crush the chiefs

[dodger33]

atlanta will crush the chiefs

that's great but i will be really impressed if you can tell me where the line is going to close at

[k13]

Pay attention to both Line movement and Value movement. Biggest misconception to forget Value movement.

Value movement is overrated.

So you would rather have Raiders +3.5 instead of +1.5 right?

Yes silly question.

[rm18]

True lines are:

Bears -6
Raiders -1
Chiefs -9

projected closers:

Bears -9
PK
PK

[The Bull]

Leave the line movement to me. I may be new, but thats the name. Ya'll will know me soon after i start postin plays.

[lakerboy]

Chiefs close at +1.5. Squares will load up on the falcons. Chiefs ml is free money. Falcons in same spot as last year on day 1 in chi. Wrong team favored.

[GunShard]

Value movement is overrated.

So you would rather have Raiders +3.5 instead of +1.5 right?

Yes silly question.

Of course. Depends on the public to move that line.

[k13]

Game opens a pk'em and moves/closes to Raiders +3.5,

So Raiders is the long-term winning play here?

[rm18]

If Carson Palmer gets hurt then San Diego will be -3.5 and it will be a good play

[TheGuesser]

Chiefs will wind up -3
Oak will be Pk
Bears will be -8

[paranoyd androyd]

^^ chiefs -3? uhhhh, no.

[GunShard]

Game opens a pk'em and moves/closes to Raiders +3.5,

So Raiders is the long-term winning play here?

Actually, would you want to bet Raiders PK at -110 or Raiders +3.5 at -140?

When there's line movement, there's value movement.

[Dexter]

Chiefs close at +1.5. Squares will load up on the falcons. Chiefs ml is free money. Falcons in same spot as last year on day 1 in chi. Wrong team favored.

where have you been? get an nfl thread up LB

[LT Profits]

atlanta will crush the chiefs

I disagree, the wrong team is favored. Chiefs are a QB away for being heavy favorites to win the AFC West, they are very solid at every other position. Falcons are just plain overrated, especially on the road,

[Goat Milk]

that's great but i will be really impressed if you can tell me where the line is going to close at

won't matter.

[iifold]

Raiders will lose...

Why even pick a side in Colts game when it's going OVER!!!

Pass on the Chiefs game...

Should be charging for this shit...

Good Luck

[Easy-Rider 66]

I disagree, the wrong team is favored. Chiefs are a QB away for being heavy favorites to win the AFC West, they are very solid at every other position. Falcons are just plain overrated, especially on the road,

Game 1 last year on the road ATL got beat up by the Bears. Expect a similar result against the Chiefs this year. ATL is one of the more overrated teams in the league. Would not be surprised if they do not make the playoffs this year.

[Speedy88]

Chiefs will win that game, they are the best home dog for week 1, and maybe even the best bet for week 1. I like GB -6, I think SF will get exposed. Alex Smith won't be keeping up with the Packers offense. Houston -7 looks good as well, Dolphins are going to be a complete mess this year.

[k13]

Actually, would you want to bet Raiders PK at -110 or Raiders +3.5 at -140?

When there's line movement, there's value movement.

I'm not even sure what are you saying.

Talking about people who say.... "If raiders hits +3.5 I'm jumping on it other wise not playing it"
So to you this is value movement?

[thetrinity]

i could see chiefs closing at pk, if luck looks great from here out that bears line will be smaller

[chargers4222]

iifold...what makes you think the colts/bears game is going under?