When making a big wager, what list of criteria need to be met?

fishmonger · 08-09-12, 01:29 AM

I like it and everyone else does to. Then I fade it.

MeatWad · 08-09-12, 01:32 AM

To make my biggest plays I need some late breaking fact that is not yet reflected in the line. This is a rare occurence. The last 2 notable times it happened for me was in NCAAB, when Purdue had horrible problems traveling to Mich St and played on less than 2 hours of sleep. The interview of the players coming off the bus right before tip off was laughable and highly profitable. Also when a not deep Bama team suspended over half their offsensive production on the same day they played at LSU. In both cases I liked the team initially and then late breaking info made the plays huge. Also pounded Memphis Griz on MLK day when Rose wore a boot to the game, it was tweeted before the line reflected the injury.

jbart28 · 08-09-12, 01:47 AM

I make sure certain posters on here are not on it....

But really if comes down to a conglomerate of indicators that point me into an overwhelmingly plus ev position.

If you like a play and search for just the stats and info that supports your belief you are doing it wrong....

MeatWad · 08-09-12, 02:01 AM

There are also games early in the season where teams simply are not as advertised. Usually I will see several college football teams who simply are not nearly as good as their hype/ranking or teams who are much better than expected. I can only gleen this information by objectively watching the games closely, and seeing the teams perform.

But usually my biggest bets always involve a team I already like getting benefitted by a late breaking game time announcement. When I am watching pregames my sports book accounts are always open for quick firing if I hear something favorable. Player props can also be greatly affected by late breaking info or even game plan announcements/leaks.

ACoochy · 08-09-12, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by MeatWad

There are also games early in the season where teams simply are not as advertised. Usually I will see several college football teams who simply are not nearly as good as their hype/ranking or teams who are much better than expected. I can only gleen this information by objectively watching the games closely, and seeing the teams perform.

But usually my biggest bets always involve a team I already like getting benefitted by a late breaking game time announcement. When I am watching pregames my sports book accounts are always open for quick firing if I hear something favorable. Player props can also be greatly affected by late breaking info or even game plan announcements/leaks.

Wadder, whats ur story pal?? How long u been in the game??

frogsrangers · 08-09-12, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by MeatWad

There are also games early in the season where teams simply are not as advertised. Usually I will see several college football teams who simply are not nearly as good as their hype/ranking or teams who are much better than expected. I can only gleen this information by objectively watching the games closely, and seeing the teams perform.

But usually my biggest bets always involve a team I already like getting benefitted by a late breaking game time announcement. When I am watching pregames my sports book accounts are always open for quick firing if I hear something favorable. Player props can also be greatly affected by late breaking info or even game plan announcements/leaks.

I can already tell you that team in Week 1 is Texas. How the **** is Wyoming getting 29.5 points? That is a gift! Wyoming might not have the best offense or athletes in the world, but they did have a respectable year last year winning 8 games and played decent defense. Texas has not had an offense worth a damn in the past 2 years that couldn't score points on anyone... and people expect them to beat Wyoming by 30 points? Not happening.

Sam Odom · 08-09-12, 02:29 AM

+50 = pass

+53 = 1/2

+56 = 1

+59 = 1.5

+62 = 2

+65 = 2.5

+68 = 3

MeatWad · 08-09-12, 03:05 AM

Been gambling for almost 30 years, started out losing as a teen. Not much of a story really, used to drink and smoke almost 24/7, but always dedicated alot of time to sports and poker. Used to count cards, never worked a job. Always looking for a legal edge.

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-09-12, 03:09 AM

First off, the line u bet has to be at apex. Can't say "Well, I missed the good # at open."

* Contrarian view is preferred.

* In addition to 1st point, you have to get the best CURRENT # in the mkt.

* Have a tangible reason, where u can prove the line is wrong. Not just a feel.

MeatWad · 08-09-12, 03:10 AM

Will have to look into that Texas game, seems like the were very talented on defense last year and strong in some non skill positions. For me the 2-5th weeks of the season seem to be the best, as teams true form still deviates greatly from their expected form/rankings/odds. Unfortunately oddsmakers see the true value of teams as the season progresses, although I like it late in the year when the teams start crossing conferences(especially SEC vs ACC).

Madison · 08-09-12, 08:21 AM

#1 ... Play quality and try to beat garbage. Always!!! Don't ever try to be a hero. It's as much about who you are trying to beat as it is who you are betting on. Loser's find a way to lose. Take it to the bank!

Vinnie Paz · 08-09-12, 09:45 AM

Everytime i go big i fukkin lose
Me, im better off just grinding out 1 or 2U bets
Fukk it

ACoochy · 08-09-12, 11:41 PM

Alot of Solid responses here guys.

Fukkin goldmine of info as well...

Good work...

aggieshawn · 08-09-12, 11:52 PM

Know your strenghts and weaknesses. Bet your strenghts and fade your weaknesses.

Never bet for action for more $ then cost of a beer.