TOTALCON Mark II - MLB Total Calculator
With new changes in TOTALCON comes a new thread.
Whereas TOTALCON Mark I simply existed to pick sides of a total, TOTALCON Mark II does things a bit differently. Instead, it searches for not only a side to pick but looking for the value as well. It is more mathematically sound.
TOTALCON Mark II has 3 parts to it.
First, the crude total which existed in TOTALCON Mark I makes its return. It uses simple sabermetrics to calculate a raw total and prices for a game. Think of this as a starting point.
Second, the D-factors. These are what I call deviations. There are 3 D-Factors. These are used to help "cap" the raw total and move it accordingly. A negative D factor means its more under friendly and should move the total/prices downward. A positive D factor means its more over friendly and should move the total upward.
D1 is the sabermetric factor. It is the D-Factor that contains sabermetric statistics such as adjusted opponents batting average, adjusted average vs. the starting pitchers hand, starting pitcher career average vs. opponent's batters, and adjusted location batting average(road/home). I consider this one the most important of the 3 D-Factors, but not so important that you should ignore the other two.
D2 is the, for lack of a better term, "what have you done lately" factor. These are non-adjusted raw stats that contain stats such as bullpen innings pitched in the last 3 games, average with runners in scoring position for the last 5 games, and batting average in the last week. If you are looking for stats that show how a team has fared lately, this is the factor for that.
D3 is the situation factor. This is where umpires, weather, park factor, and the other non statistical factors come into play. This factor is usually going to be close to 0, but if its not, that means there are some key situational factors to consider.
The 3rd part to TOTALCON Mark II is the "Capped Line". This is what I determine, based on the crude total, d-factors, and my own capping, that the fair line should be. Feel free to create your own Capped Line though. The Actual Line is what the actual Vegas line is(I use Cantor Lines), but feel free to insert your own actual line here as they vary.
This is day 1 of TOTALCON Mark II, but if I had to make plays based on these, I would make plays on the totals where the capped line has a run of value or more. I.e. if the actual line is 7.5, but the capped line is 8.5, that is a run of value so I would play the over. Likewise, if the actual line is 8.5 and the capped line is 7.5, that is a run of value and I would play the under. But its early, so this is just what I am thinking right now.
This isn't meant to pick sides, but show value, which I believe in the long run if you can consistently beat the posted line with my capped fair lines it would show a profit over the long run.
Whereas TOTALCON Mark I simply existed to pick sides of a total, TOTALCON Mark II does things a bit differently. Instead, it searches for not only a side to pick but looking for the value as well. It is more mathematically sound.
TOTALCON Mark II has 3 parts to it.
First, the crude total which existed in TOTALCON Mark I makes its return. It uses simple sabermetrics to calculate a raw total and prices for a game. Think of this as a starting point.
Second, the D-factors. These are what I call deviations. There are 3 D-Factors. These are used to help "cap" the raw total and move it accordingly. A negative D factor means its more under friendly and should move the total/prices downward. A positive D factor means its more over friendly and should move the total upward.
D1 is the sabermetric factor. It is the D-Factor that contains sabermetric statistics such as adjusted opponents batting average, adjusted average vs. the starting pitchers hand, starting pitcher career average vs. opponent's batters, and adjusted location batting average(road/home). I consider this one the most important of the 3 D-Factors, but not so important that you should ignore the other two.
D2 is the, for lack of a better term, "what have you done lately" factor. These are non-adjusted raw stats that contain stats such as bullpen innings pitched in the last 3 games, average with runners in scoring position for the last 5 games, and batting average in the last week. If you are looking for stats that show how a team has fared lately, this is the factor for that.
D3 is the situation factor. This is where umpires, weather, park factor, and the other non statistical factors come into play. This factor is usually going to be close to 0, but if its not, that means there are some key situational factors to consider.
The 3rd part to TOTALCON Mark II is the "Capped Line". This is what I determine, based on the crude total, d-factors, and my own capping, that the fair line should be. Feel free to create your own Capped Line though. The Actual Line is what the actual Vegas line is(I use Cantor Lines), but feel free to insert your own actual line here as they vary.
This is day 1 of TOTALCON Mark II, but if I had to make plays based on these, I would make plays on the totals where the capped line has a run of value or more. I.e. if the actual line is 7.5, but the capped line is 8.5, that is a run of value so I would play the over. Likewise, if the actual line is 8.5 and the capped line is 7.5, that is a run of value and I would play the under. But its early, so this is just what I am thinking right now.
This isn't meant to pick sides, but show value, which I believe in the long run if you can consistently beat the posted line with my capped fair lines it would show a profit over the long run.
