FB nearing $20, do we buy?

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  • SBR_John
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-12-05
    • 16471

    #1
    FB nearing $20, do we buy?
    I think it holds. Finger nervously on the trigger to buy. What do we think?
  • BIGDAY
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 02-17-10
    • 48245

    #2
    $15 John. Be patient
    Comment
    • Monitor-Tan
      SBR MVP
      • 02-20-11
      • 4460

      #3
      FB's valuation still isn't that high..

      Before their earnings report their valuation was over 60 billion..

      They're not worth anywhere near that..

      Even @ 20, you're saying they're worth over 40 billion.. I don't think so.

      Their earnings report was just a wake up call..

      I'm sure their earnings will be fine moving forward in the future, but they are not worth 40 + billion..
      Comment
      • Waterstpub87
        SBR MVP
        • 09-09-09
        • 4108

        #4
        Nope. Wait till it hits five.
        Comment
        • thechaoz
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-23-09
          • 12154

          #5
          Wait for it ......wwaaaiitttwforiittttt
          Comment
          • mikejamm
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-24-09
            • 11047

            #6
            Don't waste your money! It's a fad that will soon fade out like my space did! Google is where you want your money! Top notch search engine, chrome browser, great on line software like google docs, they own you tube, and they're just gett'in started dominating the future of the internet and how it's used. Zuckerburg is an lying scumbag who stole someone else's idea and paid off the real creators of FB. His own sister won't ever work for him, she works for Google!
            Comment
            • stuntin909
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 08-05-10
              • 933

              #7
              Just a fad. Dying already.
              Comment
              • dj_destroyer
                SBR MVP
                • 07-28-10
                • 3856

                #8
                FB has value somewhere between 8-12 dollars.
                Comment
                • tony_come
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 03-31-10
                  • 21695

                  #9
                  Pull the trigger after the oylmpic is over
                  Comment
                  • stevenash
                    Moderator
                    • 01-17-11
                    • 65618

                    #10
                    FB is done John, trust me on this.
                    Comment
                    • freeVICK
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-21-08
                      • 7114

                      #11
                      What did it open at again?
                      Comment
                      • milwaukee mike
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 08-22-07
                        • 26914

                        #12
                        Originally posted by freeVICK
                        What did it open at again?
                        came out at $38 ipo price, got up to 45 on the first day

                        $10 billion in cash ($5/share), if you're going to buy it at 20 then sell some covered calls in the 25-30 range against it for some free money.
                        i'm short the $18 puts (i'm betting it doesn't go below 18 by august 17).

                        Comment
                        • TheCalculator
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-10-11
                          • 1683

                          #13
                          I'm in the online marketing space -- and IMO, I think they're peaking in many ways. Unless they do like Google and crack new territory, I don't see that much blue skies ahead. Also, Google + is gaining ground. Other platforms, Instagram, etc... gaining ground. They could easily fade. Unless you think you can flip it at a profit, I would advise against it. Although I could be wrong.
                          Comment
                          • vyomguy
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-08-09
                            • 5794

                            #14
                            another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

                            The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

                            Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

                            The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.
                            Comment
                            • greenhippo
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-15-12
                              • 9091

                              #15
                              Originally posted by vyomguy
                              another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

                              The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

                              Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

                              The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.
                              I wanted to short this stock so fukking bad. Not enough cash on hand to make a big enough profit though. Chances of FB stock sitting in the upper $40's a month after IPO was +250, being under $30 was -175 at the very least. FB doesn't sell anything.
                              Comment
                              • milwaukee mike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-22-07
                                • 26914

                                #16
                                Originally posted by greenhippo
                                I wanted to short this stock so fukking bad. Not enough cash on hand to make a big enough profit though. Chances of FB stock sitting in the upper $40's a month after IPO was +250, being under $30 was -175 at the very least. FB doesn't sell anything.
                                they sell advertising

                                last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

                                you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
                                and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.
                                Comment
                                • blackbox
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-28-08
                                  • 1415

                                  #17
                                  sell - facebook employees are going to be able to sell their shares in a month-more or less !!!
                                  Comment
                                  • hels
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-12-09
                                    • 8767

                                    #18
                                    I read an article yesterday saying that over 80% of ad clicks are facebook bots. Advertisement revenue is going to drop with this news.
                                    Comment
                                    • paranoyd androyd
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-01-11
                                      • 6459

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                                      came out at $38 ipo price, got up to 45 on the first day

                                      $10 billion in cash ($5/share), if you're going to buy it at 20 then sell some covered calls in the 25-30 range against it for some free money.
                                      i'm short the $18 puts (i'm betting it doesn't go below 18 by august 17).

                                      how long have you been trading options? and what's your price for those puts?

                                      you're correct in saying there's definite value above cash levels, but i believe that value to be discernible at this point in time. the problem is that fb is also currently hemorrhaging cash due to increased core infrastructure and personnel spend, they're essentially pushing more chips into the middle of the table (which could work out for them).

                                      for disclosure, i'm interested in taking a mid-term bullish position after some nice free money in covering my earlier shorts about a week ago. definitely enjoying the continued downward pressure, but am not interested in some crazy stuff i'm seeing out there right now - specifically some serious naked calls.
                                      Comment
                                      • vyomguy
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 12-08-09
                                        • 5794

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by hels
                                        I read an article yesterday saying that over 80% of ad clicks are facebook bots. Advertisement revenue is going to drop with this news.
                                        Not only that...83 million profiles are bot created as well...thats like 20% of their consumer profiles.

                                        Several facebook exceutives are leaving and cashing out their stock options. They know that facebook was way over-valued. Those who still stayed have lost 50% of their net worth. Sanders for example lost more 600 million dollars in net value. Had she left when they went IPO, she would have been worth 1.2 billion dollars.
                                        Comment
                                        • greenhippo
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-15-12
                                          • 9091

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                                          they sell advertising

                                          last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

                                          you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
                                          and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.
                                          checkout.google.com
                                          ebay is a marketplace that you have to pay to have your items listed, how is that not selling something?
                                          shopping.yahoo.com
                                          Comment
                                          • paranoyd androyd
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-01-11
                                            • 6459

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by vyomguy
                                            another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

                                            The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

                                            Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

                                            The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.
                                            when exactly did your friend get short and how'd he get that many borrowed shares? borrowing was very tight at the time (although not as tight as many thought), but still. just curious vyom, not calling you out. gl
                                            Comment
                                            • Waterstpub87
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-09-09
                                              • 4108

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                                              they sell advertising

                                              last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

                                              you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
                                              and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.
                                              What did you get on those puts? I calculated a current value of 1.11 on the August 17 $18 Puts
                                              Comment
                                              • eidolon
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 01-02-08
                                                • 9531

                                                #24
                                                it should be around 12-13. But I think it wont drop below 15 or 16
                                                Comment
                                                • jarvol
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-13-10
                                                  • 6074

                                                  #25
                                                  Poor John.....that man will never learn the profitability of shorting stocks.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mathdotcom
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-24-08
                                                    • 11689

                                                    #26
                                                    Fair price ~$4

                                                    Garbage site

                                                    No one uses it anymore

                                                    Betting on stock market is easy

                                                    Big timers try to beat average vig of -2.5% not aerage vig of +5%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SBR_John
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-12-05
                                                      • 16471

                                                      #27
                                                      When it was in the mid 30's we had a thread and I think I predicted it would get to $19. I didnt buy today. I figured if I bought I'd need to stop out at $18. That looks extremely likely. $16 to $17 may be worth a look with a stop a little under $15. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ebbearsfb1
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-07-08
                                                        • 18815

                                                        #28
                                                        Would rather buy sbr or 5 dimes stock... true money makers
                                                        Comment
                                                        • k13
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 07-16-10
                                                          • 18104

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                                          Fair price ~$4

                                                          Garbage site

                                                          No one uses it anymore

                                                          Betting on stock market is easy

                                                          Big timers try to beat average vig of -2.5% not aerage vig of +5%
                                                          Site is garbage but everyone still uses it and will for a while because sheep can only follow. They have no where else to go.

                                                          Stock value was a joke from the start but the stock market is one big scam anyway.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • itchypickle
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-05-09
                                                            • 21452

                                                            #30
                                                            No...much better options looming to get a better return year over year John.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Stallion
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-21-10
                                                              • 3617

                                                              #31
                                                              Short facebook.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • vyomguy
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-08-09
                                                                • 5794

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by paranoyd androyd
                                                                when exactly did your friend get short and how'd he get that many borrowed shares? borrowing was very tight at the time (although not as tight as many thought), but still. just curious vyom, not calling you out. gl
                                                                Not if you are a silicon valley insider my friend. 500k is like 12k stocks...which is peanuts.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Carseller4
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-22-09
                                                                  • 19627

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I don't see facebook being around in 10 years.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FuzzyDunlop
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-15-11
                                                                    • 2422

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by TheCalculator
                                                                    Unless they do like Google and crack new territory, I don't see that much blue skies ahead.
                                                                    The only territory to crack is monetizing mobile. If anyone will do it, it will be them and if they do, they are in total beast mode.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • The Bet Master
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 09-29-10
                                                                      • 2665

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Twitter has taken over
                                                                      Comment
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