FB nearing $20, do we buy?

[SBR_John]

I think it holds. Finger nervously on the trigger to buy. What do we think?

[BIGDAY]

$15 John. Be patient

[Monitor-Tan]

FB's valuation still isn't that high..

Before their earnings report their valuation was over 60 billion..

They're not worth anywhere near that..

Even @ 20, you're saying they're worth over 40 billion.. I don't think so.

Their earnings report was just a wake up call..

I'm sure their earnings will be fine moving forward in the future, but they are not worth 40 + billion..

[Waterstpub87]

Nope. Wait till it hits five.

[thechaoz]

Wait for it ......wwaaaiitttwforiittttt

[mikejamm]

Don't waste your money! It's a fad that will soon fade out like my space did! Google is where you want your money! Top notch search engine, chrome browser, great on line software like google docs, they own you tube, and they're just gett'in started dominating the future of the internet and how it's used. Zuckerburg is an lying scumbag who stole someone else's idea and paid off the real creators of FB. His own sister won't ever work for him, she works for Google!

[stuntin909]

Just a fad. Dying already.

[dj_destroyer]

FB has value somewhere between 8-12 dollars.

[tony_come]

Pull the trigger after the oylmpic is over

[stevenash]

FB is done John, trust me on this.

[freeVICK]

What did it open at again?

[milwaukee mike]

What did it open at again?

came out at $38 ipo price, got up to 45 on the first day

$10 billion in cash ($5/share), if you're going to buy it at 20 then sell some covered calls in the 25-30 range against it for some free money.
i'm short the $18 puts (i'm betting it doesn't go below 18 by august 17).

[TheCalculator]

I'm in the online marketing space -- and IMO, I think they're peaking in many ways. Unless they do like Google and crack new territory, I don't see that much blue skies ahead. Also, Google + is gaining ground. Other platforms, Instagram, etc... gaining ground. They could easily fade. Unless you think you can flip it at a profit, I would advise against it. Although I could be wrong.

[vyomguy]

another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.

[greenhippo]

another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.

I wanted to short this stock so fukking bad. Not enough cash on hand to make a big enough profit though. Chances of FB stock sitting in the upper $40's a month after IPO was +250, being under $30 was -175 at the very least. FB doesn't sell anything.

[milwaukee mike]

I wanted to short this stock so fukking bad. Not enough cash on hand to make a big enough profit though. Chances of FB stock sitting in the upper $40's a month after IPO was +250, being under $30 was -175 at the very least. FB doesn't sell anything.

they sell advertising

last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.

[blackbox]

sell - facebook employees are going to be able to sell their shares in a month-more or less !!!

[hels]

I read an article yesterday saying that over 80% of ad clicks are facebook bots. Advertisement revenue is going to drop with this news.

[paranoyd androyd]

came out at $38 ipo price, got up to 45 on the first day

$10 billion in cash ($5/share), if you're going to buy it at 20 then sell some covered calls in the 25-30 range against it for some free money.
i'm short the $18 puts (i'm betting it doesn't go below 18 by august 17).

how long have you been trading options? and what's your price for those puts?

you're correct in saying there's definite value above cash levels, but i believe that value to be discernible at this point in time. the problem is that fb is also currently hemorrhaging cash due to increased core infrastructure and personnel spend, they're essentially pushing more chips into the middle of the table (which could work out for them).

for disclosure, i'm interested in taking a mid-term bullish position after some nice free money in covering my earlier shorts about a week ago. definitely enjoying the continued downward pressure, but am not interested in some crazy stuff i'm seeing out there right now - specifically some serious naked calls.

[vyomguy]

I read an article yesterday saying that over 80% of ad clicks are facebook bots. Advertisement revenue is going to drop with this news.

Not only that...83 million profiles are bot created as well...thats like 20% of their consumer profiles.

Several facebook exceutives are leaving and cashing out their stock options. They know that facebook was way over-valued. Those who still stayed have lost 50% of their net worth. Sanders for example lost more 600 million dollars in net value. Had she left when they went IPO, she would have been worth 1.2 billion dollars.

[greenhippo]

they sell advertising

last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.

checkout.google.com
ebay is a marketplace that you have to pay to have your items listed, how is that not selling something?
shopping.yahoo.com

[paranoyd androyd]

another 1.7 billion shares will be added to the market within the next 4 months. So, the value of the stock will go down further...around $15 for sure.

The main problem with facebooks is that people come there to interact socially...not to buy products. As compared to google, where people are actually there to buy something if they are looking for a product.

Long term...investing in facebook is a mistake....I can easily see the stock going to $5 in the next 3-4 years. There are always new social startups which people move on to.

The only thing to do with facebook stock is SHORT...my friend put close to 500k in SHORT when it came out. He will make a cool 200k-250k if he sells now...he thinks it will go down to $15 by the end of this year.

when exactly did your friend get short and how'd he get that many borrowed shares? borrowing was very tight at the time (although not as tight as many thought), but still. just curious vyom, not calling you out. gl

[Waterstpub87]

they sell advertising

last time i checked google, yahoo, ebay don't sell anything either

you guys thinking it goes to $5/share are crazy, that is the value of their cash. so that would be assuming that the company is worth nothing.
and the lockup isn't dilutive, there are still going to be 636 million shares outstanding whether people sell or not. over time as the executives keep getting free shares, that will be mildly dilutive but not to the extent some think.

What did you get on those puts? I calculated a current value of 1.11 on the August 17 $18 Puts

[eidolon]

it should be around 12-13. But I think it wont drop below 15 or 16

[jarvol]

Poor John.....that man will never learn the profitability of shorting stocks.

[mathdotcom]

Fair price ~$4

Garbage site

No one uses it anymore

Betting on stock market is easy

Big timers try to beat average vig of -2.5% not aerage vig of +5%

[SBR_John]

When it was in the mid 30's we had a thread and I think I predicted it would get to $19. I didnt buy today. I figured if I bought I'd need to stop out at $18. That looks extremely likely. $16 to $17 may be worth a look with a stop a little under $15. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

[ebbearsfb1]

Would rather buy sbr or 5 dimes stock... true money makers

[k13]

Fair price ~$4

Garbage site

No one uses it anymore

Betting on stock market is easy

Big timers try to beat average vig of -2.5% not aerage vig of +5%

Site is garbage but everyone still uses it and will for a while because sheep can only follow. They have no where else to go.

Stock value was a joke from the start but the stock market is one big scam anyway.

[itchypickle]

No...much better options looming to get a better return year over year John.

[Stallion]

Short facebook.

[vyomguy]

when exactly did your friend get short and how'd he get that many borrowed shares? borrowing was very tight at the time (although not as tight as many thought), but still. just curious vyom, not calling you out. gl

Not if you are a silicon valley insider my friend. 500k is like 12k stocks...which is peanuts.

[Carseller4]

I don't see facebook being around in 10 years.

[FuzzyDunlop]

Unless they do like Google and crack new territory, I don't see that much blue skies ahead.

The only territory to crack is monetizing mobile. If anyone will do it, it will be them and if they do, they are in total beast mode.

[The Bet Master]

Twitter has taken over