intelligent posters only: probability question

[l7ustin]

if derek jeter has a 38% chance of getting a hit in every at bat tonight and robinson cano has a 40% chance of getting a hit in every at bat tonight then what is the probability that either cano or jeter will get a hit in their first at bat in tonights game??

[jrmartin.mig]

My first question would be "where do you get the figures that they have a 38% and 40% chance of getting a hit"?

[mathdotcom]

Independent probability

If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is
<dl><dd></dd></dl> for example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is ^[18]
Mutually exclusive

If either event A or event B or both events occur on a single performance of an experiment this is called the union of the events A and B denoted as . If two events are mutually exclusive then the probability of either occurring is
<dl><dd></dd></dl> For example, the chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is
Not mutually exclusive

If the events are not mutually exclusive then
<dl><dd>




I'll let you figure out which applies
</dd></dl>

[JohnGalt2341]

Do you mean getting on base? Wouldn't it be 58.5%?

[l7ustin]

My first question would be "where do you get the figures that they have a 38% and 40% chance of getting a hit"?

the infallible Accuscore

[no gnu taxes]

if derek jeter has a 38% chance of getting a hit in every at bat tonight and robinson cano has a 40% chance of getting a hit in every at bat tonight then what is the probability that either cano or jeter will get a hit in their first at bat in tonights game??

Simply put:


Probability of Jeter not getting a hit = 1-.38 = 0.62

Probability of Cano not getting a hit = 1-.40 = 0.60


So the probability of neither getting a hit is (0.60)(0.62) = 0.372


Probability at least 1 gets a hit = 1 - 0.372 = 0.628

[l7ustin]

1-.4=.6
1-.38=.62
.6*.62=.372
1-.372=.628
They have a 62.8% chance of either one of them getting a hit

[l7ustin]

Excellent job gnu!!

[str]

78%

Assumed 39% times 2= 78

[Br0nxer]

think tank this fukkin bullshit

[wantitall4moi]

think tank this fukkin bullshit

LMAO yeah because simple math belongs in there..... well yeah I guess it would considering some of the shit they think is worth discussing in that place.

Anyone betting more than lunch money on sports should actually be able to figure that out, even though some think it is some advanced form of math or something.

[PerfectGrape]

Riddle me this Batman: the Heat have a 67% chance of winning any given NBA Finals game. What is the probability Heat wins series 4-3?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

it's 50/50

either they do or they don't

/thread

[King Mayan]

I think the right answer is:

[bb_skoots]

The chance that Jeter gets a hit in his first at bat is 38% and that Cano gets a hit in his first at bat is 40%.

[d2bets]

62.8% is right. Jeter is 38%. So 62% of the time you'll get to Cano. He gets a hit 40%*62% = 24.8%. So 38% plus 24.8%.

[The Kraken]

40+38=78

78/2= 39

Assume 4 at bats per game

39/4=10

So 10% chance they get a hit on their first at bat

[yisman]

It was first plate appearance, not first at bat, and Accuscore did not have those percentages you mentioned.

[alukk]

40+38=78

78/2= 39

Assume 4 at bats per game

39/4=10

So 10% chance they get a hit on their first at bat

lol

[MonkeyF0cker]

Riddle me this Batman: the Heat have a 67% chance of winning any given NBA Finals game. What is the probability Heat wins series 4-3?

14.48%

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/190052-no-vig-series-calculator.html

[TheCentaur]

One variable that is being ignored is how much more unlikely it is to get a hit against a pitcher on the first at bat of the day. There's a reason why you don't want pitchers going more than 6-7 innings besides pitch count, if a hitter has already seen the guys stuff in 2 or 3 at bats he's better prepared.

[jbart28]

Bout tree fiddy...

You 2p2'ers will laugh

[PerfectGrape]

14.48%

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...alculator.html

Great tool, was looking for exactly this

[a4u2fear]

As math would say and I would agree, any introductory probability course would have tAught you this week 1

[no gnu taxes]

Riddle me this Batman: the Heat have a 67% chance of winning any given NBA Finals game. What is the probability Heat wins series 4-3?

Odds of being tied 3-3 after 6 games:

(6, 3) * .67^3 *.33^3

(6*5*4)/3*2 * .67^3 *.33^3

20 * .67^3 *.33^3

= 21.62%

Since the chance of Miami winning the 7th game is 0.67, the chance of the heat winning in 7 games is 0.67 * 0.2162 = 14.48%

By the same analysis, if the 2 teams were evenly matched, there would only be a 31.3% chance of a 7th game happening (i.e. series is tied 3-3 after 6 games). In real life, it seems the actual percentage is much higher, although I've done no research to verify that.

[ebelisle22]

1.7%