Testing my MLB moneyline value calculator tonight for the first time

Chi_archie · 07-06-12, 06:48 AM

where are you at with it now?

hydrosmak · 07-06-12, 07:30 AM

ARI: +$3.32 (Loss)
BAL: +$0.86 (Loss)
MIN: +$0.67 (Loss)
HOU: +$0.54 (Loss)
TOR: +$0.52 (Loss)
CIN: +$0.47 (Loss)
ATL: +$0.47 (Win)
NYM: +$0.36 (Win)
TBR: +$0.29 (Loss)
STL: +$0.28 (Win)
CHW: +$0.19 (Win)
MIL: +$0.14 (Loss)
SFO: +$0.06 (Win)
MIA: -$0.04
WAS: -$0.06
TEX: -$0.09
PHI: -$0.26
COL: -$0.28
CLE: -$0.29
CHC: -$0.37
SDG: -$0.37
KCR: -$0.42
PIT: -$0.44
DET: -$0.57
LAA: -$0.76
LAD: -$3.12

Looks like you are betting on the wrong side of this thing but keep posting it and we can see where it goes.

taxe91 · 07-06-12, 08:00 AM

a -500 moneyline favourite would set off alarm bells for me, especially since i believe they had a rookie pitching for them in that game.

Axis · 07-06-12, 09:33 AM

I also have been working on a model to find potential ML value...and we seem to be quite different on yesterday. I currently have only been tracking mine for over a week, since I used a majority of the first half to build up stats...just hoping it proves worth over the second half so I know it has potential for next season.

Personally, when looking at a game for the model, if the pitcher has less than 21 innings pitched, I don't even bother capping it. I too showed Arizona to have value yesterday (had it pegged at -280) but Miley, though a rookie, has pitched quite well this season, and halfway through...the fact he's a rookie shouldn't affect him during a regular season game like it might his first 3 starts, or his first playoff appearance.

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 09:47 AM

Disregard this post by the way, turns out I had a bug in my calculation method last night. Was not calculating pitchers ERAs properly. So all of those numbers are wrong, knew there was something up when it said Baltimore should have been a favorite

After fixing it it still showed Arizona with value, but not as a -500 favorite, it was actually -227

I fixed it and will try again tonight

ScreaminPain · 07-06-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

After fixing it it still showed Arizona with value, but not as a -500 favorite, it was actually -227

I fixed it and will try again tonight

I find it interesting how people can come up with such different conclusions.....and using mostly the same data. Arizona was -126 on my sheets yesterday. Obviously a NO-PLAY since the line was near -168 or so in mid afternoon.

As an aside, it's a bit more predictive to use FIP or DIP calculations instead of ERA.

I'll be following along here to see if this effort comes to fruition...good luck on your endeavor.

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

I find it interesting how people can come up with such different conclusions.....and using mostly the same data. Arizona was -126 on my sheets yesterday. Obviously a NO-PLAY since the line was near -168 or so in mid afternoon.

As an aside, it's a bit more predictive to use FIP or DIP calculations instead of ERA.

I'll be following along here to see if this effort comes to fruition...good luck on your endeavor.

Yeah its still early... just made it yesterday, I am going to experiment with it. FIP and DIP sounds like a good idea to try

The main issue is access to stats, I run a webpage sniffer that automatically collects and parses the data so it has to be a webpage I can easily get the stats from and parse it. I use baseball reference because its layout is easy, but I have to use ESPN for bullpen era.

But today I have been working on a WNBA efficiency calculator(similar to kenpom's) so any adjustments will have to wait.

Axis · 07-06-12, 11:50 AM

Really wish I knew more about programs like that for scraping data...still do it the old school way using double monitors haha.

If you don't mind me asking, because I know some don't like to just "hand out" their hard work...when predicting your ML's, do you first come up with a predicted game score, or do you use a power rating type deal?

I ask, because I first predict a score, from which I then generate a ML. It's been fairly sound so far in it's infancy, but this allows me to test 3 models at the same time...one for finding ML value, and the other using the predicted scores, and then using the predicted score for team totals.

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Axis

Really wish I knew more about programs like that for scraping data...still do it the old school way using double monitors haha.

If you don't mind me asking, because I know some don't like to just "hand out" their hard work...when predicting your ML's, do you first come up with a predicted game score, or do you use a power rating type deal?

I ask, because I first predict a score, from which I then generate a ML. It's been fairly sound so far in it's infancy, but this allows me to test 3 models at the same time...one for finding ML value, and the other using the predicted scores, and then using the predicted score for team totals.

Right now I am just using the usual log5 and pyth oriented numbers... really haven't found a good way to predict a score yet

It's pretty basic and not that complex, but baseball is a sport with so many stats and numbers its really hard to figure out which ones to use and how much to use them.

LT Profits · 07-06-12, 02:46 PM

Maybe you could scape FIP from fangraphs? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=16,a

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 02:51 PM

Today's Output, before the ERA to FIP change. I am going to alter the ERA to FIP and see if anything changes. But this is prior to it. St. Louis seems to be the value play of the day.

STL: +$0.99
ATL: +$0.59
LAD: +$0.55
MIN: +$0.54
NYM: +$0.42
CLE: +$0.42
SEA: +$0.41
DET: +$0.23
WAS: +$0.20
SDP: +$0.19
SFO: +$0.15
BOS: +$0.14
HOU: +$0.10
MIL: $0.00
BAL: OFF
TOR: OFF
CWS: OFF
LAA: OFF
CIN: -$0.01
PIT: -$0.05
NYY: -$0.09
COL: -$0.10
KCR: -$0.18
OAK: -$0.31
CHC: -$0.32
TBR: -$0.32
ARI: -$0.45
TEX: -$0.46
PHI: -$0.49
MIA: -$0.89

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Maybe you could scape FIP from fangraphs? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=16,a

Wish I had that page yesterday... looks like it has all the data I need. Right now my model uses a socket to recieve data from 3 different pages.

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 03:28 PM

Here is the output when I changed Starter's ERA to FIP. I still use a bullpen ERA instead of FIP, will change that later, don't feel like doing it right now. But this model likes St. Louis even more, Royals Rangers and Rays saw a huge jump, but I would disregard Texas due to Martin Perez's small sample size.

STL: +$1.48 (0.99 / +0.51)
SEA: +$1.02 (0.41 / +0.61)
KCR: +$0.94 (-0.18 / +1.14)
CWS: +$0.73 (OFF / NA)
ATL: +$0.59 (0.59 / 0.00)
TBR: +$0.49 (-0.32 / +0.81)
TEX: +$0.46 (-0.46 / +0.92)
SDG: +$0.39 (0.19 / +0.20)
SFO: +$0.39 (0.15 / +0.24)
HOU: +$0.26 (0.10 / +0.16)
WAS: +$0.25 (0.20 / +0.05)
LAD: +$0.14 (0.55 / -0.31)
BOS: +$0.10 (0.14 / -0.04)
NYM: +$0.04 (0.42 / -0.38)
NYY: $0.00 (-0.09 / +0.09)
BAL: OFF
LAA: OFF
ARI: -$0.04 (-0.45 / +0.41)
CHC: -$0.06 (-0.32 / +0.26)
MIL: -$0.16 (0.00 / -0.16)
COL: -$0.25 (-0.10 / -0.15)
CIN: -$0.29 (-0.01 / -0.28)
PIT: -$0.31 (-0.05 / -0.26)
MIN: -$0.36 (0.54 / -0.90)
CLE: -$0.41 (0.42 / -0.83)
PHI: -$0.49 (-0.49 / 0.00)
TOR: -$0.63 (OFF / NA)
DET: -$0.81 (0.23 / -1.04)
OAK: -$0.92 (-0.31 / -0.61)
MIA: -$1.38 (-0.89 / -0.49)

everythingred · 07-06-12, 04:04 PM

Money on STL then

frogsrangers · 07-06-12, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by everythingred

Money on STL then

I am on them big too... but remember this is the first night I have run this so if the Cardinals lose don't come crying to me!

everythingred · 07-06-12, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

I am on them big too... but remember this is the first night I have run this so if the Cardinals lose don't come crying to me!

I don't mind taking a risk.

sohearen · 07-24-13, 01:12 AM

STL had 12 hits (3 errors) to 6 hits (1 error) of opponent but lost 3-2.

jjgold · 07-24-13, 06:08 AM

Keep this thread updated, Frogs curious to see what develops.

The Kraken · 07-24-13, 06:42 AM

BigDeem5 · 07-24-13, 07:03 AM

4th shift Jj, using punctuation.

konck · 07-24-13, 08:48 AM

I dont care what the terms are when you bet -180 your an idiot

you go 7-3 and barely squeeze out a profit I still cant understand how players dont see that. MLB is not as hard as it looks and its not as easy as betting heavy chalk. Moneyline value is numbers closer to even or plus thats where your attention should be. Look at the good cappers here Benny and Nash you never see them laying -180 look at Brock he lives at -180

Smoke · 07-24-13, 08:54 AM

Did he win?

The Kraken · 07-24-13, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by konck

I dont care what the terms are when you bet -180 your an idiot

you go 7-3 and barely squeeze out a profit I still cant understand how players dont see that. MLB is not as hard as it looks and its not as easy as betting heavy chalk. Moneyline value is numbers closer to even or plus thats where your attention should be. Look at the good cappers here Benny and Nash you never see them laying -180 look at Brock he lives at -180

Goddamn this guy is stupid

Hit 70% on a bet with break even rate of 64% and you're barely squeezing a profit?

Guy if you have zero clue (which applies to you) nobody gives a fukk about your beyond worthless opinion.

Assuming the market is efficient, you will break even at -180. Just like you would at +180

Learn this kock, there can be more value on a -180 line than on a +180 line. Repeat it 1000 times until it sinks in your empty head. Value is value, regardless of the price. Yet according to you , you're gonna bypass the correct play out of ignorance. And feel good about it

youre beyond help here.

Louisvillekid1 · 07-24-13, 05:40 PM

jjgold · 07-24-13, 05:58 PM

Let the kid try his experiment men

Its definitely something different

Frogs prove these guys wrong

The Kraken · 07-24-13, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Let the kid try his experiment men

Its definitely something different

Frogs prove these guys wrong

jJ there's a reason frogger isn't showing up. This thread is a year old and he scrapped the whole thing a long time ago. Now all we're doing is confirming not if but how stupid konck is.

Swinging Johnson · 07-24-13, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

Goddamn this guy is stupid

Hit 70% on a bet with break even rate of 64% and you're barely squeezing a profit?

Guy if you have zero clue (which applies to you) nobody gives a fukk about your beyond worthless opinion.

Assuming the market is efficient, you will break even at -180. Just like you would at +180

Learn this kock, there can be more value on a -180 line than on a +180 line. Repeat it 1000 times until it sinks in your empty head. Value is value, regardless of the price. Yet according to you , you're gonna bypass the correct play out of ignorance. And feel good about it

youre beyond help here.

I agree 100% but you could have been a bit more demure in your lecture Krakster.

The Kraken · 07-24-13, 06:05 PM

Swinging I know. But I had let the whole Konch and Benny thing go but fukk, Konck kept popping in and trying to run his little fukking meat market so I obliged and responded.

ill be better in a week

Swinging Johnson · 07-24-13, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

Swinging I know. But I had let the whole Konch and Benny thing go but fukk, Konck kept popping in and trying to run his little fukking meat market so I obliged and responded.

ill be better in a week

You're sharp as a tack but don't forget your meds....I worry.

frogsrangers · 07-24-13, 07:38 PM

Why the hell was this thread resurrected?

frogsrangers · 07-24-13, 07:43 PM

I do remember using this when I was in Vegas last August. I remember using it one night and it gave me 4 money line dog winners. I thought it was great and used it again the next night. Picked the 7 money line dogs it gave me and went 1-6. Didn't use it again.

cotes17 · 07-24-13, 07:59 PM

Do you have it in an excel spreadsheet or do you do it all by hand?

Smoke · 07-24-13, 08:20 PM

Frogger bring back your calculator

The Kraken · 07-24-13, 08:37 PM

Frogged you scrapped it way too early. Aim for a thousand plays for a good sample size to analyze. Don't bet the games, just see how your calculator performs. Need a good n number.