Round 11 AFL Degen plays...

[Gee]

What a crazy game of footy. The cover was always a tease... Biggest margin of 52 and spent, I reckon, about 95% of the game not covering.

Turned out a Demons goal with 10 seconds on the clock screwed us.

I ended up pushing on the game. I laid the juice on the Pies 40+ when the line moved so hard this morning. You can have a screenshot if you don't believe me. Still filthy at not winning both units, but for ONCE laying the juice actually worked...

edit: dirty, dirty fukn loss. Filthy.

[shari91]

Man I got lucky. JJ asked me this morning who I liked and I said the Pies if they were fielding everyone but I hadn't looked at the match at all. Started to read this thread and was pissed that I forgot to jump on. Get to the end and it seems I got saved. Some of these one goal losses on the cover in the dying seconds when they mean shit make you wonder sometimes.

[Libert1ne]

Got ****** by that last goal there.

******* blew like 15 units profit and turned it into a ~10 unit loss. 4 Seconds left. oyster

[tom89]

[Pride]

i had dees +48.5 and felt sick for everyone on the pies with the last goal since i didnt need it for the cover.

just disgusting and really makes you wonder. pies player was 20 yards out with 30 seconds to go and shanks it clear of goal and the dees march up the field.

[Gee]

Meh. I can't really complain. I got a push and I've gotta say, I've been on the right side of these more often than not over the last two seasons.

There have been quite a few goals after the siren, late goals etc that have gone my way. Don't forget about those when you cop this type of loss... Pies were the kings of 10 goal final quarters to cover last season (remember Bulldogs game. I think they were losing in the last quarter and won by 40+). I also remember being on the miracle by Pies over Geelong a fortnight ago. If i went through the last 2 years of betting, i reckon those 'miracles' would outnumber the losses by at least 3 to 1.

If i'd lost on this type of finish more often, I'd be furious.

[MatI]

Some of these one goal losses on the cover in the dying seconds when they mean shit make you wonder sometimes.

just disgusting and really makes you wonder. pies player was 20 yards out with 30 seconds to go and shanks it clear of goal and the dees march up the field.

Actually, what makes me wonder are these sorts of comments. Keep that BS in the NBA forum please.

If there was anything dodgy going on with covering the spread do you think they would let it come down a kick from 50 metres out, on the angle, with 5 seconds left on the clock?

If you are going to fix something, you do not leave it to chance.

[Pride]

chill. i am not talking about a fix.

[hawley]

Actually, what makes me wonder are these sorts of comments. Keep that BS in the NBA forum please.

If there was anything dodgy going on with covering the spread do you think they would let it come down a kick from 50 metres out, on the angle, with 5 seconds left on the clock?

If you are going to fix something, you do not leave it to chance.

How is it possible to "fix" a result in the opening stages of a match?

[MatI]

When you write that it 'really makes you wonder' yes, you are talking about fix.

[MatI]

How is it possible to "fix" a result in the opening stages of a match?

Surely you jest hawley...

[hawley]

Surely you jest hawley...

Obviously I am trying to wind you up.

I struggle to believe anyone genuinely believes the AFL is corrupt (in this manner).

[shari91]

Actually, what makes me wonder are these sorts of comments. Keep that BS in the NBA forum please.

If there was anything dodgy going on with covering the spread do you think they would let it come down a kick from 50 metres out, on the angle, with 5 seconds left on the clock?

If you are going to fix something, you do not leave it to chance.

lol Mat I wasn't talking about a fix. I was referring to wondering why I even bet at all. Same thing I always say: As much as I think I have things figured out at times, at the end of the day when you see a close cover like this it reminds me that I'm going up against linesmakers who are much smarter than me.

[Gee]

I don't know if there was a fix. I doubt it.

I said during the game that I was unhappy with the way it was being called... Its more likely the old story of calling the game to avoid a blow out Dick Bavetta style (was it Bavetta who was known for that??). Umpiring was pretty poor in this one though... more by the non-calls to set up Demons goals than anything.

Also the 19.15 was pretty poor. A lot of the misses were fairly easy shots at goal.

Tough season this one...

[MatI]

lol Mat I wasn't talking about a fix. I was referring to wondering why I even bet at all. Same thing I always say: As much as I think I have things figured out at times, at the end of the day when you see a close cover like this it reminds me that I'm going up against linesmakers who are much smarter than me.

lol, then we have very different ways of expressing ourselves. I am not sure how your comment could ever be interpreted as 'golly gosh, the books are sharp arent they'.

Again:

Some of these one goal losses on the cover in the dying seconds when they mean shit make you wonder sometimes.

All good, just sayin. Pisses me off all the constant 'fixed' talk on these boards on a bad beat.

[Pride]

im in the same boat as shari in regards to what i said. i was indirectly referencing what shari meant since ive seen the same type of posts in the tennis section.

i was on the other side of the bad beat and when these happen it makes me remember why i dont bet year round.

[Libert1ne]

AFL is definitely not corrupt. Sometimes umpires can be swayed to favour the losing team, especially in response to an angry crowd. Nothing much more than any other sport.

[shari91]

lol, then we have very different ways of expressing ourselves. I am not sure how your comment could ever be interpreted as 'golly gosh, the books are sharp arent they'.

Again:


All good, just sayin. Pisses me off all the constant 'fixed' talk on these boards on a bad beat.

Yeah I probably didn't express myself that clearly. Sometimes I forget I'm not talking to people face to face or they might not have seen my other "conversations" on here about stuff. Normally prompted by my losing or winning a tennis handicap by 0.5 or 1 game. I've been on a kick for the past 6-12 mths - usually after I've been grading in the SBR book - about how crazily close some of the lines get to being spot on. And of course it's magnified when it happens in the last few minutes or seconds of a game, no matter which sport. I can only imagine how many people were dumping money on Collingwood live betting even with a bigger line only to be screwed later in the match. I by no means think the AFL is dirty. Sometimes I think the umps are blind or are favouring one team over another to a certain extent but I think that has more to do with other factors ... not anything betting related.

[Bbr]

Bookies are getting there lines sharp. Glad i took the rest of the round after getting buried by the tigers. Very cautious times ahead when wagering on AFL.

[ACoochy]

Whoa!!!! A lot of posters and players buried by pies today as already stated. Bring on next week!!!

[shari91]

Bookies are getting there lines sharp. Glad i took the rest of the round after getting buried by the tigers. Very cautious times ahead when wagering on AFL.

I can't remember if it was this year or last year on here that we were saying we should quit after round whatever. I guess it's comparable to tennis tourneys. As time goes on the books have a better chance to gauge where a team/player is at so it gets harder to pick a side.

[jjgold]

Who covered?????

[shari91]

Who covered?????

Melb in the last few seconds. Hooped a lot of people. I'm hoping you didn't get on because I totally forgot to. I'll feel badly if you did.

[jjgold]

I did not bet it

I fell asleep

I guess Colling was the right side even though they did not cover

[Crowing Capers]

Got screwedddd. That last goal by Melbourne was nasty shit.

Books cleaned up BIG time today...... That Farkinnnn hurt.

[raydog]

AFL is definitely not corrupt. Sometimes umpires can be swayed to favour the losing team, especially in response to an angry crowd. Nothing much more than any other sport.

i think you have been under a rock for a while, libert rumors are all over the place about match fixing in footy this year... but not the case here... i dont think the guys on th field have much of a clue how much time is left in each qtr...

[Coopertrooper]

Sorry to see you guys miss there.

Too many injuries for us at the moment to be covering big lines confidently, but that was very unlucky at the end. Lines are super sharp this year, going to steer clear of them mostly, the totals have been a bit easier to cap.

Early start to next round on Thursday, hopefully a nice easy round to help ease the pain of the last month!

[Lookingtostart]

Everyone's so sombre, me too, I had a bad week in AFL, won most of my bets overall... just didn't bet the same. Though, I must have been the only one who picked the Melbourne line.

We can pick ourselves up and good luck to all on!

[Gee]

I can't remember if it was this year or last year on here that we were saying we should quit after round whatever. I guess it's comparable to tennis tourneys. As time goes on the books have a better chance to gauge where a team/player is at so it gets harder to pick a side.

I don't remember this conversation. We have dominated the finals the last two seasons at SBR - check GNPs thread from 2010 and mine from last year. Whilst the lines get sharper, for the time being, if you are selective - AFL is still beatable. Its only mid-season! I remember saying not to bet the final few games when team have nothing to play for and is uncappable, but that is nothing to do with sharp lines.

[shari91]

I don't remember this conversation. We have dominated the finals the last two seasons at SBR - check GNPs thread from 2010 and mine from last year. Whilst the lines get sharper, for the time being, if you are selective - AFL is still beatable. Its only mid-season! I remember saying not to bet the final few games when team have nothing to play for and is uncappable, but that is nothing to do with sharp lines.

AFL will always be beatable. Just like very sport. But the conversation was about how easy it was to pick off 'off lines on spreads and totals early on and how that advantage disappears as the season goes on.

I'll just tail you in the latter rounds. So you better post some good sh$t!!!

[Gee]

Ah, yeah, I do remember that conversation. I think it was about totals primarily. No doubt its the same for spreads though. Its why I was more selective this week... usually I would have been all over the Tigers and Bombers, but something worried me in both games.

I will only hit 60% or so, so you better tail everything I post for later rounds! It is still very early days in the season though. Not even half way there yet.

Eagles at home this week after a 2 week break, vs Blues on the road after a taxing game against the Cats almost looks too easy. On it now at -23.5 for a unit.

Who knows why they are playing on a Thursday night? I'm in WA and I have no idea... there isn't anything on Friday and the timing is ridiculous - 5:40 - trying to get there in peak hour traffic and getting a beer after work before the game is impossible.

[hawley]

Gee are you a DOCKERS fan?

[therealdealau]

Ah, yeah, I do remember that conversation. I think it was about totals primarily. No doubt its the same for spreads though. Its why I was more selective this week... usually I would have been all over the Tigers and Bombers, but something worried me in both games.

I will only hit 60% or so, so you better tail everything I post for later rounds! It is still very early days in the season though. Not even half way there yet.

Eagles at home this week after a 2 week break, vs Blues on the road after a taxing game against the Cats almost looks too easy. On it now at -23.5 for a unit.

Who knows why they are playing on a Thursday night? I'm in WA and I have no idea... there isn't anything on Friday and the timing is ridiculous - 5:40 - trying to get there in peak hour traffic and getting a beer after work before the game is impossible.

5.40 is pathetic on a Thursday, I would also like to know why they are playing then. The freeway is going to be packed...possibly taking the day off.

[Gee]

Hawley: not a fan of any team any more. Gambling has destroyed any sense of loyalty that I ever had. Each game is now just an opportunity to try to make some money or to get some info for future wagers. When I post a play, you know emotion has nothing to do with it.

Therealdeal: yeah, makes no sense whatsoever. I have tickets available to me for the game, but by the time I finish work and relax, it'll be easier to watch on TV. If I try to go, I guarantee I'll miss the first quarter.

They have LESS games each week due to the mid-season byes, but they stretch the games they have out more? :dontgetit:

[Ghenghis Kahn]

ghengis. You should go back to sucking Roxxybitch's nuts. Degenerate twink.

ghengis where were u during during last 6 weeks when I went 15 in a row ATS??

Ur a classic pal. Keep up the good work...

Genghis getting buried here.


Guy should know better than to come into more sports and talk shit.

internet tough gay. how was your threesome you *? had plenty of cocks to go around huh?



keep at it with your fairy sport.