There Can Be Tons of Value in Live Betting

[Vitooch]

As long as you pick your spots carefully...

for example...there was a point in tonight's Miami/Boston game in which Boston was +8 1/2. It was in the third quarter when Miami was on a run with around a 6 point lead. While Boston was having the first string of flat possessions of the game, it was clear that no team had a commanding control of the game. It only took Boston a couple solid defensive and offensive possessions and they were right back in the game. That is the beauty of live in-game play. The pre-game spreads are usually very sharp, and are virtual coinflips. While you can certainly pick your shots with pre-game spreads, it seems as though you can find better opportunities with live spreads. Good cappers can gauge if a team seems to be pulling away, or are just on a temporary cold streak.

[Vinnie Paz]

Yep totally agree

Good for middling your game/team totals too

[hawley]

I agree but your example is pretty moot since the original spread was +8.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Live Betting is fukkin awesome but I've been playing with the same local for 3 years now and its just so much better in every other way

The one thing I do miss is Live betting because it can be a gold mine if you pick your spots (I keep small amounts online so I still do some live betting ).....

If you are on tilt or just a degenerate action junkie in general, Live Betting can be a death sentence on the other hand

[Vitooch]

I agree but your example is pretty moot since the original spread was +8.

Yes, but this was the pre-game spread. I find it more difficult to make predictions pre-game than during the game. Who would have thought pre-game that Rondo would be shooting lights out like he did, and that Boston in general would put on one of their most productive halves of offense in these playoffs?

I was much more confident that a veteran Boston club would be able to hang with the Heat considering the information that I did know (that I didn't know pre-game). That Miami's offense was a little more stagnant than expected, that Boston would come out much more efficient on defense, that Rondo would be playing the way he was playing.

[The Kraken]

Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.

[the_situation]

Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.

maybe for you. people that know what they're doing can make money off it. EG. Heat down 15 in 1st half, grab them at +6 live.

[Vitooch]

Um, no. Not even close. Live betting is a suckers bet. You will win a few middles and think you're good at it and the books are imcreasimg your limits everytime.

I would say the pre-game spread is more of a suckers' bet than live betting. Books are incredibly sharp with pre-game spreads. Books are more likely to give you a live spread that's off because the nature of the NBA (how much the score differential fluctuates). Taking something like Boston +8 1/2 seems like less of a coin-flip than a pre-game spread where no one could predict something like Rondo shooting lights out.

[Sunde91]

It only took Boston a couple solid defensive and offensive possessions and they were right back in the game.

captain hindsight awaaayy

That just killed anything you said. "It was a good play because I knew after the fact that Boston would be right back in it"

Good cappers can gauge if a team seems to be pulling away, or are just on a temporary cold streak.

Bos went from tied to down 7 in 2 mins in the 3rd of gm1. No different really than this game Bos up 1 to down 6 in 3 mins. One was temporary the other pulled away. You don't know. Only value in live is beating pregame line or scalping/middling

[Vitooch]

captain hindsight awaaayy

That just killed anything you said. "It was a good play because I knew after the fact that Boston would be right back in it"



Bos went from tied to down 7 in 2 mins in the 3rd of gm1. No different really than this game Bos up 1 to down 6 in 3 mins. One was temporary the other pulled away. You don't know. Only value in live is beating pregame line or scalping/middling

Boston was playing a way better brand of basketball in Game 2. I had a much harder time seeing a focused, more efficient Boston team keeping the game close, than in Game 1, when they seemed much more disoriented and less prepared. It's still very tough to gauge, but I think it is easier to catch an off in-game spread than pregame a much sharper pre game spread.

[Buster Posey]

What book is the best for using live betting these days? It seems most books like 5dimes only have a few live betting options on the Nationally Televised Games. Would be great to find a solid and reputable book that offered line options on every game on the board.

[TheCalculator]

Bet365 has insane amount of options.

[Buster Posey]

Bet365 has insane amount of options.

Cool, txs for the tip.

[jjgold]

Juice is always a concern with live betting
Delays are a concern

[laddder]

These past few games ive been live betting and have gotten sickk lines... I had the pleasure of getting SAS +ML gm1 against okc and i believe gm3 against clips, okc +10 gm 2 and was able to nab heat +ML yesterday. Just watch the games and try to grab the best lines, these games are back and forth and a 10-15pt lead can lead to inflated lines, you know the team that is down will claw back up.

[jjgold]

It's addicting

Biggest plus is watching game flow and being able to bet on it.

[Smogs]

Nice thread indeed, good advice

[notoriouz]

I have found that live betting on the ML rather than the spread to be more profitable for me. For example, yesterday in the heat-celtics game, when the heat made there run in the 3rd and led by 6 or so, you could have grabbed Boston on the ML for +500 or so. And when the celtics were leading by 5 in the last 3 minutes, you could have grabbed Miami on the ML for +1000 or so. I unfortunately did not make any bets in this game so I missed out.

Obviously you have to pick your spots, but the NBA has had many swings this season. You can guarantee yourself profit when you get + odds over +100, and if you can get boths teams at +200 or more you get a guaranteed unit of profit.

[riffraff24]

I had Spurs +3 in game 1 live betting in Vegas.

[Vitooch]

And, as people mentioned in the thread, there are lots of middling opportunities ...if you capped the live lines of last night game well enough you could have caught Miami at +2, and Boston +8 1/2

[Vitooch]

Testing my theory with Spurs +13 In-Game

[Pauulzcappin]

Got them 10, 10.5... slim chance but oh well

[Vitooch]

Seems like Pop has thrown in the towel. Parker's been out for a while

[The Kraken]

I'm not disagreeing with you about scalps or middles or how fun it is. I enjoy live betting for fun just as much as the next guy, usually when my brothers in town. But the title of your thread is about value. Each bet is it's own and each line is the new line for the game so even though there are scalp and middle oppurtunities, you are likely compounding one -ev bet with another -ev bet. I promise you books aren't losing on live betting or they would not be offering it. They in fact clean up on live betting. Have fun with it but do not be disillusioned about it's value, they are almost always -ev bets.

[nux4thecup]

burnt too may times by live betting

[Beetlejuice]

I like middles. I lead in with the Fav pre-game, wait for an opportunity where there is a big point disparity, and take the other team. Works great, but haven't been doing it long enough to really see a chance to make big bank.

[Big Bear]

Ahh live betting... This is something i probably need to get disabled.

That shit will get you in trouble

[hougigo]

Ahh live betting... This is something i probably need to get disabled.

That shit will get you in trouble

True... good thing Heritage only has it for football right now

[uncynd]

Live betting value is only really lacking in action. Finding a good line and decent maximum bet is hard sometimes.

[Ralphie1412]

Its stealing. I wish 5dimes would let you bet a dime. Nickle limits. Its still pretty mindblowing though. I wait for every big televised game and bet live. I got Alabama +110 +120 +240

[trytrytry]

what books do you use and like the most for live wagering? list them all plus or minus

[necro]

Live betting is the best, you can easily come from 50 to 2000 but than you can easily lost 2000 going all in on some -330 odds...