How Does Vegas Not Get Buried in The NBA Playoffs?

[brahmabull117]

Public got super buried with the Magic vs Cavs series


No question about it.

The public is retarded then, I don't bet on series lines bigger than - 500. I prefer not to go over -300-400 actually


It's just hard to bet on -700 lines to be profitable and win 90% of your plays

[brahmabull117]

trolling or stupid to not know I'm not talking about 2009

In 2010, at that point, Celtics weren't thought of highly by anyone. It was all about the Cavs and Lakers. -475 series price reflects it

something like 16 out of the last 19 finals have been properly predicted by NBA experts. There is no other sport like that


Explain that

[rake922]

Who are the NBA experts?

[Wojo]

3)Spurs were only about - 200 IIRC and Manu was injured. A semi upset there

Manu only missed one game, Game #1, last year against Memphis. He averaged 20.7 ppg against the Grizz, 3.4 more points than he did during the regular season. I do not believe that a #1 seed was just -200 over a #8 seed at the beginning of the series.

You make it sound like hedging out of a series is so easy. It isn't and you can actually end up losing much more money than if you just would have stuck with your original wager.

Since this is so easy, how come you are only 2-0 in series this year?

Hindsight is always perfect. I see you have gone way out on a limb predicting Miami over Boston. Why don't you let us know who is going to win the Finals?

TIA

[breikert]

Who are the NBA experts?

Me.

[Sunde91]

Dogs 4-4 last 8 Finals clown

2004 LA -620

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/9490-lakers-pistons-series-line.html

2006 Mavs -200 (no links found, but estimate can be inferred by game lines, like Mavs -5.5 game 1)
2008 LA -185

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/basketball/a/08nbafinals.htm

2011 Heat -185

-11.9 lost + 4 won = -7.9 units last 8 years taking all favs in the Finals

You aren't going to find series prices for 15 years ago so you have no proof of anything outisde this

[lakerboy]

Manu only missed one game, Game #1, last year against Memphis. He averaged 20.7 ppg against the Grizz, 3.4 more points than he did during the regular season. I do not believe that a #1 seed was just -200 over a #8 seed at the beginning of the series.

You make it sound like hedging out of a series is so easy. It isn't and you can actually end up losing much more money than if you just would have stuck with your original wager.

Since this is so easy, how come you are only 2-0 in series this year?

Hindsight is always perfect. I see you have gone way out on a limb predicting Miami over Boston. Why don't you let us know who is going to win the Finals?

TIA

Memphis was +176. You figure out what san an was?

[Sunde91]

wow Memphis was +176 you believe that

http://www.nsawins.com/betting/nba/2011-nba-playoffs-grizzlies-vs-spurs-series-odds-predictions-free-picks-and-preview/

Spurs -380

[Wojo]

Memphis was +176. You figure out what san an was?

Good job, Sunde. Spurs were -380.

Can you figure out what the Grizzlies were, Lakerboy?

Where is your spread number documented, Lakerboy?

Dolt.

[rm18]

Sunde's line was not the closer though it was before people thought Ginobili was hurt significantly.

[bettilimbroke999]

Year after year after year, nearly EVERY series results in the obvious choice winning. How does Vegas not get buried in the NBA playoffs? Is it because people don't have the discipline to just play the series lines (which is free money) and are constantly playing the spreads in all the games (which are coinflips)?

Oh Philly was supposed to beat Chicago? Clippers were supposed to win game 7 against Memphis? Pacers were supposed to be up 2-1 and a pick in Game 4 to go up 3-1 vs Heat? Denver was supposed to come back from 3-1 to take it to game 7 in LA? Individual games they dont get burned on bc there is a reasonable chance of the worst team winning and they make the moneylines like -400 or more so you gotta win 4 out of 5 just to breakeven

Now if you want to look at the series the reason why Vegas doesnt get buried is bc SA was like -2000 to beat Utah, so you win pennies on the dollar and if theres ever any key injuries like Chicago who was like -1500 to beat Philly then you lose your ass

[PAYTON20]

this is a funny thread

[Avenger]

You mean like how philly beat the Bulls this year as 10-1 underdogs

Exactly what I was thinking.

an INJURED Philly beating a healthy Bulls team (before the first game, iggie was injured and Rose was healthy)

Brahmabull =

[Avenger]

I have a theory: could someone back test it?

I think the series price for a heavy fav in the first round of playoffs tells you how many big favs will lose.

For example, if it's -200, then 1 out of 4 favs will lose. Because you'll have geniuses like Brahma, who will bet all favs for every series. And they'll still lose $$$ because of the juice.

So... why not bet all dogs, knowing that 1 out of 4 will win? And if one dog loses, chase the other dog? Of course, you couldn't do series prices, but maybe the last game of the series?

Just thinking out loud, this system seems kinder to the bankroll, rather than chasing big favs.

[GunShard]

Sportsbooks/Vegas make money from the juiced lines.
Vegas makes money off the juiced line no matter the outcome.
Only way Vegas loses is by creating a bad line and if the public money is on the right side. That rarely happens and Vegas has recovered from that. Both Patriots vs Giants super bowls for example.

[You mad bro]

this dudes a clown ... coming out with bulls only lost cuz of d rose ....

the bulls had the same record if not a better one without him ... he doesnt mean shit when u play team basketball ... look at the san antonio spurs ... they dont have out person who averages 25+ every year but are yet successful year after year ... the bulls were out played by a younger team and just let it go ...


and i know plenty of ppl who lose on series bets ... it happens thats why its called gambling .... sometimes u take plus odds and roll with it and sometimes u take heavy favorites and get fcked in the ass hard


brama please keep posting ur plays so i can start to fade

[You mad bro]

and also .. there is no such thing as a sports expert ... just because you know an entire book of stats doesnt mean you know what you are talking about ... how many times have u seen in baseball or hockey a team get hot at the right time and dominate ... big example

LA KINGS .... dominated the 1 seed ... dominated the 2 seed .. and blew the coyotes away to .... and if u dont know hockey the kings are an 8 seed

all it takes is a team to get hot at the right time in sports and anything can happen ...


its called gambling for a reason bro, if it was so easy you would be rich already

[NittanyLionsFan]

Brahmabull bet the Bulls at -2000 and forgot to list Derrick Rose as the starting PG in 60% or more of the series games, and now he's mad. #poorguy

[jjgold]

This guy must be a real idiot

Guy talks like he wins, in realty he loses everything

[Grits n' Gravy]

Books make money because they have the bankroll to grind through tough times. Add in the fact that fuktards like yourself think betting is free money and are willing to eat more chalk than sideloaded at a bukkake fest and you have your answer. If it looks too good to be true, more likely than not it is. For the measly money you will win laying 4 or 5 to 1 odds on a favorite in a series you will probably lose 6 times that betting each game.

[rm18]

Bulls were still -600 after Rose got hurt

[brahmabull117]

and also .. there is no such thing as a sports expert ... just because you know an entire book of stats doesnt mean you know what you are talking about ... how many times have u seen in baseball or hockey a team get hot at the right time and dominate ... big example

LA KINGS .... dominated the 1 seed ... dominated the 2 seed .. and blew the coyotes away to .... and if u dont know hockey the kings are an 8 seed

all it takes is a team to get hot at the right time in sports and anything can happen ...


its called gambling for a reason bro, if it was so easy you would be rich already

Baseball and hockey are totally different though, there's absolutely no way to predict baseball or hockey playoffs



Football has a little bit of predictability in terms of home/road splits, matchups, experience, previous history, etc... Basketball though is far and away the most predictable


Even the upsets to me are predictable - I though Memphis had a great shot last year to beat San Antonio with the way the Spurs struggled with them during the regular season and struggled with teams that had an interior presence (Getting blown out by the lakers at home a couple weeks before playoffs started). I actually made some money on the grizzlies if you want to search my threads in the NBA section


To me, basketball playoffs are the sport that really rewards somebody for understanding basketball matchups. Other sports are far far more unpredictable

[Romerowned]

Vegas doesnt get buried because you are laying 3 or 4 to 1. You are most likely going to win, hence laying those odds, but when you lose, you get crushed.

[brahmabull117]

Vegas doesnt get buried because you are laying 3 or 4 to 1. You are most likely going to win, hence laying those odds, but when you lose, you get crushed.

My point being is that I think you can make awesome money in the NBA playoffs if you understand series matchups. There are lots of series where it's -200, -250 or -300 but the favorite has good value simply due to experience/homecourt advantage/better matchup



Pretty much exactly what you're seeing with the Spurs and Thunder. SA wins that series a huge percentage of the time and they're only - 180 - 200 favorite. Reason being superior experience, coaching and they match up very well with OKC

[Grits n' Gravy]

So open up your own book or start betting real money brahma. Otherwise shut the fuk up.

[vaas187]

why wouldn't you play the spread though. sure you could take spurs tonight but what the **** is it worth to drop even 1K on spurs ML....to win what, 300 bucks? not worth the risk/reward with such a small payout.

the reason they make money is because theirs so many stupid ******* suckers who place shitty bets everyday and end up mortgaging their house to keep betting, not on people betting spreads. spreads are easy to play.

[vaas187]

So open up your own book or start betting real money brahma. Otherwise shut the fuk up.

exactly. if you're not happy with the lines or winnings/losses then start your own book.

frankly, im in the midst of trying to start getting involved in a pyramid or giving my own lines to to small groups of friends.

[Kindred]

Year after year after year, nearly EVERY series results in the obvious choice winning




How does Vegas not get buried in the NBA playoffs? Is it because people don't have the discipline to just play the series lines (which is free money) and are constantly playing the spreads in all the games (which are coinflips)?

You're a fuckin genius

[Kindred]

My point being is that I think you can make awesome money in the NBA playoffs if you understand series matchups. There are lots of series where it's -200, -250 or -300 but the favorite has good value simply due to experience/homecourt advantage/better matchup



Pretty much exactly what you're seeing with the Spurs and Thunder. SA wins that series a huge percentage of the time and they're only - 180 - 200 favorite. Reason being superior experience, coaching and they match up very well with OKC

[NittanyLionsFan]

there is zero chance, ZERO of Boston winning this series

You're so ******* stupid that it hurts, lol.

I love when the clueless monkeys get fkn owned.

[NittanyLionsFan]

And I'm not saying Boston won this series, but they obviously have a much better than 0% chance. This kid is just a fuckin troll that gets owned all day every day.

[PAYTON20]

I think you've answered your own question now lol

[Grits n' Gravy]

Brahma is the kid who pays his bookie every week and can't believe he keeps losing teasers that look too good to be true.

[MrXYZ]

why wouldn't you play the spread though. sure you could take spurs tonight but what the **** is it worth to drop even 1K on spurs ML....to win what, 300 bucks? not worth the risk/reward with such a small payout.

the reason they make money is because theirs so many stupid ******* suckers who place shitty bets everyday and end up mortgaging their house to keep betting, not on people betting spreads. spreads are easy to play.

That's the funniest thing I've read on SBR lately, so true. Their most valuable customers are poor dumbasses who can't stop.

[crustyme]

brahmakerry buried for the 500th time.