How Does Vegas Not Get Buried in The NBA Playoffs?

[LVHerbie]

C'mon guy everyone know Vegas doesn't lose..just cause you win a bit on the NBA so what?..99% of the people blow it back on other bets...silly post.

From everything I heard outside a couple locations (Cantor and Hilton?) book managers in Vegas are scared shitless to take more then a dime (in some cases less) if they think you have half a clue...

[durito]

pinnacle must get buried taking 50k on series bets

[Pride]

celtics were free money tonight.

[durito]

Anybody who bets a 20-1 favorite is a retard and has no business gambling anyways

fail

[brahmabull117]

celtics were free money tonight.

there is zero chance, ZERO of Boston winning this series

[thetrinity]

im gona take a wild guess that vegas has never lost money for an entire playoffs.

[brahmabull117]

im gona take a wild guess that vegas has never lost money for an entire playoffs.

You're probably right



People can't help themselves but bet on spreads and totals in basketball, which is ALWAYS a losing proposition as they're nothing but pure coinflips


If you understand basketball and matchups and have the discipline to only play series lines, there's no excuse for not making money every year. This year especially has been incredibly predictable

[k13]

#1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.

[Sunde91]

Mavs beat by 8th seed 2007
Bulls beat by 8th seed
Spurs beat by 8th seed
Mavs sweep Lakers
Mavs beat Heat
Suns sweep Spurs 2010 after Spurs knock off 2nd seed Mavs
Boston beats heavily favored Cavs in 2010


on and on and on just shut up pickloserallday

[raydog]

cant argue with stupid, boyz... very typical

[brahmabull117]

Bulls beat by 8th seed
Spurs beat by 8th seed
Mavs sweep Lakers
Mavs beat Heat
Suns sweep Spurs 2010 after Spurs knock off 2nd seed Mavs
Boston beats heavily favored Cavs in 2010
Boston beats favored Magic in 2010 including first 2 on road

on and on and on just shut up pickloserallday

And I can show you a 100 examples in the last 10 years of obvious choices winning


I am not telling people to just bet every single favorite. There are favorites and there are obvious choices. You just gotta understand basketball and what the more likely team to win is


Perfect example - neither team in the LAC/Memphis series was an obvious choice cause it's an even matchup - there's no difference in experience. Boston was an obvious choice over Philly cause of their playoff experience


Does that make sense?

[rm18]

Suns were favored over Spurs in 2010 though Sunde

[brahmabull117]

Suns were favored over Spurs in 2010 though Sunde

Guys I am NOT saying to bet every single favorite, no way



You just gotta know the matchups, experience, etc... I think picking NBA playoff winners is very easy when you do that. That's all I'm saying


Don't bet on a favorite in questionable matchups - I wanted no part of LAC/Memphis because there's no clear advantage there in either side

[raydog]

look, just sit back on your 100ft yacht, you paid for with gambling winnings, and watch the game...with every post, you make yourself look even more stupid..if its possible

[brahmabull117]

#1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.

exactly

[Kindred]

Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they? And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.

Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

totally predictable

obviously a ton more examples

And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

Bet the playoffs a few years and you'll see it's not as easy as you think. Until then don't bet the rent

[brahmabull117]

Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they?

I thought Dallas was a very easy choice last year because of the HUGE difference in playoff experience

2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.

you skipped 4 years of the better/more experienced team winning the finals there brah between 2007-2010 and pretty much the same thing with every year between when Jordan came back from his retirement for the first time to Detroit beating LAL (another true rare upset)

Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

Manu was injured. San Antonio was a shell of what they are now

And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

No betting a 20-1 favorite is retarded no matter what. The point is that there can possibly be value in a 4-1 favorite, betting a 20-1 favorite is idiotic no matter what

[LVHerbie]

Last year thunder were favored over dallas weren't they? And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

2006 Dallas won first 2 games vs. heat looked like a lock to win it all..oh and those two games if I remember correctly where in Miami. The heat went on the road and beat Dallas in Dallas and won 4 straight to take the title.

Last year Memphis crapped all over the spurs in the first round

totally predictable

obviously a ton more examples

And how are 4-1 favorites a LOCK and a 20-1 favorite like the Bulls not

Bet the playoffs a few years and you'll see it's not as easy as you think. Until then don't bet the rent

Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

For the rest of us the only thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

[brahmabull117]

Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

My point is when Manu gets injured for San Antonio or when D Rose gets injured for the bulls, those plays are no longer easy choices and you should hedge out


Also I never said true upsets NEVER happen, they're just rare


The experts all predicted the NBA finals properly in something like 16 out of the last 19 seasons. You'll never see that in any other sport

For the rest of us the the thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

hey I told everybody to play Lakers game 7, Boston series, boston game 7, SA series, Miami Series. My record is nearly impeccable in the NBA playoffs this year

[k13]

[QUOTE=Kindred;14888998 And I know the heat were a HUGE favorite over dallas in the finals..and LOST

[/QUOTE]

HUGE as in +1000 or HUGE as in +150

[brahmabull117]

I don't know how anybody can say the Heat were an easy choice over the Mavs last year in the finals. The mavs had more playoff experience and Lebron's history of choking in huge situations made that a 50-50 proposition either way



The point is that the experts properly predict the Conference finals and the NBA finals like 80 or 90% of the time

[raydog]

pinnacle must get buried taking 50k on series bets

really all that needs to be said here...he still wont understand though

[brahmabull117]

really all that needs to be said here...he still wont understand though

you don't see my point though that the "Experts" properly predicted the conference finals and championship over the last 20 years at an astonishingly high rate?

[Kindred]

HUGE as in +1000 or HUGE as in +150

I've had a few beers pal not like I'm a walking almanac of last years odds. It was more than +150, +175 huge lol. I think I was remembering the price after game 1..and I remember it cause I took the +175 before game one and wished I had waited.

The NBA has less parity than the other major sports but vegas is well aware of this. I'd feel safe betting that anything you know vegas knows

[Kindred]

Pretty sure what he is arguing (since every example that others cite doesn't qualify) is that when the favorites win they are all obvious but when the favorites lose they aren't...

For the rest of us the only thing that is obvious is the reason why we are getting this thread in the middle of the playoffs rather then a list with the obvious plays before it started...

Yeah I realize no way to get through..just buzzed and wanted to keep him from going bust. Just read the thread title you know it's going to end bad

[raydog]

you don't see my point though that the "Experts" properly predicted the conference finals and championship over the last 20 years at an astonishingly high rate?

okay, well after you realized you were being fukking stupid with the series bets idea, you decided to change your "point" to this... trying to help you and you dont seem to realize it kid...damn why do we bother?

[brahmabull117]

okay, well after you realized you were being fukking stupid with the series bets idea, you decided to change your "point" to this... trying to help you and you dont seem to realize it kid...damn why do we bother?

I'm 2-0 betting on NBA series prices so far - both the Lakers against Denver and the Celtics over 76ers. I'll be 4-0 when Miami and SA both win their series


all 4 of those series are easy choices when you consider talent, experience and matchups


I'm not trying to brag at all by the way when I say that, I think anybody who watches basketball should be 4-0 on those series

[Sunde91]

And I can show you a 100 examples in the last 10 years of obvious choices winning

you could not, but it wouldn't matter and you would still be down buried by the heavy chalk losers even picking 80%

Million $ is how you discern the "obvious choices" from the not so obvious

Heat -180 vs. Mavs last year must have been the best value in history right? Unstoppable Heat too easy. Then you would have bet them -400 after winning game 1
Spurs -400 vs. Grizz impossible Spurs get beat by an 8th seed
LA -350 over Mavs last year very obvious yes? A very reasonable price for the 2x champs
Cavs -475 over Bos 2010 for the best reg season team that year obvious yes?
Cavs -800 over Magic 2009 also obvious for a #1 Cavs team that swept the first 2 rounds

on and on

Go on and call all of these not obvious, Captain Hindsight, while you brag about being 2-0 on -300 prices

[RAPISTburger84]

#1-3 seeds have been champions every year except ONE.

When's Steve Young gonna come out the closet?

[lsuheat911]

"free money" lol bet you anything the OP will be flat ass broke in a few years collecting welfare checks

[brahmabull117]

Heat -180 vs. Mavs last year must have been the best value in history right? Unstoppable Heat too easy. Then you would have bet them -400 after winning game 1
Spurs -400 vs. Grizz impossible Spurs get beat by an 8th seed
LA -350 over Mavs last year very obvious yes? A very reasonable price for the 2x champs
Cavs -475 over Bos 2010 for the best reg season team that year obvious yes?
Cavs -800 over Magic 2009 also obvious for a #1 Cavs team that swept the first 2 rounds

on and on

Go on and call all of these not obvious, Captain Hindsight, while you brag about being 2-0 on -300 prices

1)Dallas over LA was a rare pure upset, I'll give you credit there

2)Boston over Cavs shouldn't have been a surprise to anybody. 3 Stars to 1 star. Boston was the more experienced and better team that year. People who understand basketball know that regular season means nothing

3)Spurs were only about - 200 IIRC and Manu was injured. A semi upset there

4)Orlando over Cleveland. How was anybody surprised by this seeing Cleveland's constant choking in the playoffs?



What about the NBA experts properly predicting like 16 of the last 19 NBA finals? and a huge % of the conference finals?

What about the experts properly predicting the conf finals the last 2 seasons? (they were right last year, it's pretty much a guarantee that Miami/SA will win)

[Sunde91]

Cavs had the best record and swept the first 2 rounds going 7-0-1 ATS, fukko. Cavs weren't known for choking until THAT YEAR

[brahmabull117]

Cavs had the best record and swept the first 2 rounds going 7-0-1 ATS

regular season doesn't mean anything, their first 2 rounds faced zero competition


please explain to me how Lebron, with no rings, and a bunch of role players is an obvious choice over 3 superstars and real championship experience in Boston?

[BettingWizard]

Public got super buried with the Magic vs Cavs series


No question about it.

[Sunde91]

trolling or stupid to not know I'm not talking about 2009

In 2010, at that point, Celtics weren't thought of highly by anyone. It was all about the Cavs and Lakers. -475 series price reflects it