Buddy of mine who's a career loser gambling

[Kindred]

I've never said it was the end-all be-all. You still have to cap and watch games. It's always been something worth considering, though. To dismiss it and say it "means nothing" is a bit extreme. It was a very helpful tool that cashed a lot of bets for me in my first year-plus of gambling. Doesn't seem to be hitting at the rate it once was, but then again -- and contrary to popular belief -- I don't follow it close enough to say for sure so maybe I'm just picking/skipping over the wrong games when I do notice it. Again, I don't know.

you throw around the word "cap" when all you really mean is spending two seconds looking for RLM and making a guess

Say you find a ncaa game 75% of "public" is on one side..you have no idea if that's a public bet or not. Could be 3 bets at $10 while one guy bet $100 the other way. So you have no idea what value if any those public % numbers represent.

You throw around the word public but guess what..you are the public and so is this forum..public. Funny when squares think they are so different and smarter than the "public" and then try to fade themselves taking the "sharp" side

[thetrinity]

its computer assisted but the actual lines are set by humans. a computer does a lot of the work just like in the rest of the facets of our lives. these guys are basically at the offices 80+ hours a week though.

another thing on the oddsmakers. they are very good at knowing what the line should be. however, they are not great handicappers. kind like being a good mathematician doesnt make you a good scientist.

[No coincidences]

you throw around the word "cap" when all you really mean is spending two seconds looking for RLM and making a guess

Say you find a ncaa game 75% of "public" is on one side..you have no idea if that's a public bet or not. Could be 3 bets at $10 while one guy bet $100 the other way. So you have no idea what value if any those public % numbers represent.

You throw around the word public but guess what..you are the public and so is this forum..public. Funny when squares think they are so different and smarter than the "public" and then try to fade themselves taking the "sharp" side

I just said that's why you have to cap games -- because you can't just look at a line for two seconds and make a decision based on that. It doesn't work that way.

There are no "squares" or "sharps" -- just winners and losers at the end of the day. Square bets lose and sharp bets win. That's it.

[thetrinity]

you throw around the word "cap" when all you really mean is spending two seconds looking for RLM and making a guess

Say you find a ncaa game 75% of "public" is on one side..you have no idea if that's a public bet or not. Could be 3 bets at $10 while one guy bet $100 the other way. So you have no idea what value if any those public % numbers represent.

You throw around the word public but guess what..you are the public and so is this forum..public. Funny when squares think they are so different and smarter than the "public" and then try to fade themselves taking the "sharp" side

agree. also just because theres a RLM doesnt mean that the sharps dont necessarily want the antipublic side. take the dodger pirate game. the dodgers open in the 145ish range close around 10 cents lower, its entirely possible that the so called sharps manipulated the oddsmakers into giving them a better line on this game and really liked the dodgers at -135 and not so much at -145. just because the dodgers were a public play doesnt really matter. its also quite possible the sharps were just wrong (and on the buccos at the better price). its important to remember that even the sharpest of sharps is nowhere near 100%.

unless you have inside information to a sharp syndicate, you really dont know if you are dealing with good information or not. (referring to line movement). assuming that the sharps are automatically on the other end of RLM is foolish IMO.

[No coincidences]

$500 parlay tonight: Lakers 1H, Mavs 1H, Dodgers ML.

Unreal. He's going to do it again.

[paco]

Dodgers only lead by 1. Long game to go

[No coincidences]

Dodgers only lead by 1. Long game to go

Trust me, he'll get it done. He's up over $5,000 in the last two weeks on parlays alone (betting $25 to $100). Hasn't taken one dog.

[No coincidences]

Dodgers only lead by 1. Long game to go

Now 6-3.

[No coincidences]

He just called me laughing about the Lakers and Mavs lines.

"-2? Who are they kidding? This is free money." His exact words.

Love how The Greek had -1.5 on both. "Sharp" book my ass.

[BettingWizard]

just gotta fade from here on out. start posting the plays beforehand

[No coincidences]

just gotta fade from here on out. start posting the plays beforehand

This has been going on for a while BW. Pretty consistent since fall.

[BettingWizard]

yeah it sucks if you've been fading, but since we haven't, now is the time to start

even the best bettor in the world can't stay hot for a whole year

[No coincidences]

yeah it sucks if you've been fading, but since we haven't, now is the time to start

even the best bettor in the world can't stay hot for a whole year

No, I haven't been fading. Glad too -- I'd be in the poorhouse.

[paco]

Padres tie it ...

[freshguy222]

just look at what how goldengreek got hammered during cfb, hitting like 45% or so on anti-public and trap lines. ive recognized it as well, last year the line told you exaclty what to do, especially when it was way too high for public perception, usually a total blowout

[rm18]

Lakers -1.5 was a really bad line, the other picks might of been kind of lucky.

[No coincidences]

Three-teamer tonight:

Celtics over, Pacers over, Lakers over.

$200 to win nearly $1,200.

[Ralphie1412]

I love this thread.

I can just see NC boiling mad. He dedicates this life to this and sucks at it, his buddy just lays down bets and cleans up. Awesome.

[No coincidences]

People wanted me to start posting his plays, so there it is. Lakers over to finish the parlay. He got it at 199. It's now 198.

[No coincidences]

He's going to do it again.

Bookie said no more parlays if he hits them this week.

[No coincidences]

Both teams shooting 55 percent.

[No coincidences]

He just called me. Here are his plays tonight.

Reds
Yankees
Blue Jays
Dodgers

Fvcking nailed the four biggest public plays of the day (outside of the Phillies). Again.

$500 on each.

[Jayvegas420]

Could you please post the pick before the game starts, not just the winners 1/2 way through the game or after its finished.
Dont bother mentioning in your reply, that sometimes you do. Also don't bother with the, I don't know what hes betting untill he calls me SH|T.
I think its high time you post these remarkable parlays a few hours in advance so we can fade or tail in plenty of time.
I get the feeling several previos posters have this right on the money......Fading the picks from now on will likely be quite lucrative,
I dont hate winners, I hate people who lie about winning after the fact.
Oh, here's my publicly posted pick before the game, well, yeah it lost but I made money on the 2nd half....blah, blah, blah.
ironically I had Yanks, Jays & Red Wings parlayed tonight. I don't have any reservations coming here & telling you about it, after the fact because I dont mind being honest with people & telling them that I was losing bettor today.

[No coincidences]

He also took the Celtics +10.5 for $500 (he's basically gone 10x his normal bet size on every play). I asked him why? He said, "why are the Celtics getting 10.5 vs. Atlanta?" I told him Pierce, Rondo and Allen were sitting. He said, "oh, I had no idea."

[No coincidences]

Could you please post the pick before the game starts, not just the winners 1/2 way through the game or after its finished.
Dont bother mentioning in your reply, that sometimes you do. Also don't bother with the, I don't know what hes betting untill he calls me SH|T.
I think its high time you post these remarkable parlays a few hours in advance so we can fade or tail in plenty of time.
I get the feeling several previos posters have this right on the money......Fading the picks from now on will likely be quite lucrative,
I dont hate winners, I hate people who lie about winning after the fact.
Oh, here's my publicly posted pick before the game, well, yeah it lost but I made money on the 2nd half....blah, blah, blah.
ironically I had Yanks, Jays & Red Wings parlayed tonight. I don't have any reservations coming here & telling you about it, after the fact because I dont mind being honest with people & telling them that I was losing bettor today.

I don't always talk to him beforehand. When I do, I post them. He's usually at work until right before gametime.

[No coincidences]

Not sure if I can believe this or not (though I've seen some of the things he's bought since this past fall), but he says he's up over $13,000 in the last eight months after tonight. He literally hasn't bet one underdog, and he played heavy chalk ML parlays every day until his bookie cut him off.

I know he lost almost $1,000 yesterday, but made it all back and then some today.

[mh217]

right plays win..only barreled in players dictate their bets by line movement..shameful that you are envious....thats a guaranteed recipe for losing....be smart, cap your own selections, go for it....otherwise you will remain a cocksucking weasel.

[No coincidences]

right plays win..only barreled in players dictate their bets by line movement..shameful that you are envious....thats a guaranteed recipe for losing....be smart, cap your own selections, go for it....otherwise you will remain a cocksucking weasel.

Dude, I'm amazed by this. He literally doesn't cap games. He threw a parlay in last week that hit and basically told me he went through and clicked on all big home faves. It hit. I've never seen anything like this sustained for so long.