Buddy of mine who's a career loser gambling

[mrmarket]

Basically

sprinkled in with some psuedo sharp rationalizations.The only correct response is congratz or lets go do A where A = i have an advantage vs. you involving money. Getting tied up in this when you have no financial involvement is silly.

So If you think his plays are square vs your angle start booking his bets at the no vig line and see where it ends up. Upside is that you can profit from your theories too Or take the easy way out charge vig or tag him as your affiliate at some book. NM posting a thread on SBR much better i guess.

[No coincidences]

Basically

sprinkled in with some psuedo sharp rationalizations.The only correct response is congratz or lets go do A where A = i have an advantage vs. you involving money. Getting tied up in this when you have no financial involvement is silly.

So If you think his plays are square vs your angle start booking his bets at the no vig line and see where it ends up. Upside is that you can profit from your theories too Or take the easy way out charge vig or tag him as your affiliate at some book. NM posting a thread on SBR much better i guess.

You missed the point of the thread entirely. I'm just using him as an example. I was asking if this is part of a broader scope adjustment by the books to the Internet/information age and how they treat/adjust lines.

[convick]

Your buddy is a career losing gambler? You are on the other hand, a winning one?

[No coincidences]

this, duno why a book would do this "on the level". the only people who look at this are guys who want to "fade the public", i disagree with you on that no coin. never have i heard a squareball come in and say wow team a has 90% on the public, i better be on that 2, they dont even care to be honest. you shouldnt have to look to see who the public has anyways, you should know by now.

I have probably two dozen friends who gamble on-line. Pretty much every single one of them looks at the "top bets today" or whatever their sportsbook throws out there and bets with that team accordingly. They look at it as a helpful hint of which is the "hot" team to bet -- not fade material.

[No coincidences]

Your buddy is a career losing gambler? You are on the other hand, a winning one?

I was up before this last six months, yes. Not anymore.

He was in pretty deep given his bet sizes. Now he laughs it off like he's getting free money. This has been going on since college football season, and I would assume he's not alone.

[mrmarket]

You missed the point of the thread entirely. I'm just using him as an example. I was asking if this is part of a broader scope adjustment by the books to the Internet/information age and how they treat/adjust lines.

His method of gambling is the antithesis of yours by your own admission so it can't help but be personal.
That being said in this case specifically if you're using your friend as an example the answer is no. He is a non factor in the market.

The real questions you have to ask is:

Is his method profitable? Is your method profitable? Why? Can they be profitable at the same time? Can they lose at the same time? (yes) If one/both are profitable why does the market allow them to exist?

The only way to answer these questions is to gather data. Start by your method vs. books. Test his results by cross booking and if you consider him square it's win win. You will get no (good/accurate) answers out of this thread.

[thetrinity]

I have probably two dozen friends who gamble on-line. Pretty much every single one of them looks at the "top bets today" or whatever their sportsbook throws out there and bets with that team accordingly. They look at it as a helpful hint of which is the "hot" team to bet -- not fade material.

ever think they are just betting on the better team, which is the case on about every single top bet? the recs want to bet on the better team without regard to anything else.

[Smoke]

Every gambler goes hot and cold over time

Your buddy will give it all back

its inevitable

[thetrinity]

Does anyone know what sort of conditions line makers adhere to so that they continue to work as line makers rather than betting the games for larger profit?

i know the guys who work for lvsc have very little free time if any at all. i suppose they have a different set of scruples then degenerates do as well.

[No coincidences]

i know the guys who work for lvsc have very little free time if any at all. i suppose they have a different set of scruples then degenerates do as well.

Plus, I would imagine that, for the most part, it'd be like running a gas station. You can't offer gas at $1.50 a gallon when the guy across the street is at $4. Books, by in large, carry relatively similar lines. There are "leans" from time to time that books give, but an oddsmaker couldn't get too out of line with anything for long without losing his job.

[thetrinity]

Every gambler goes hot and cold over time

Your buddy will give it all back

its inevitable

agree, feels like a jealous rant more then anything. ive been there dont get me wrong and have had an awful few months myself.

anyways, if lines are tighter, theres gonna be less skill involved. if anything it seemed like no coin was on every game when he did his thread, nowadays we gota be a bit more selective.

[thetrinity]

coin, out of curiosity, if this guy is on to something shouldnt your other 2 dozen friends who bet online and look to follow the top pick also be killing it as well?

[thetrinity]

Plus, I would imagine that, for the most part, it'd be like running a gas station. You can't offer gas at $1.50 a gallon when the guy across the street is at $4. Books, by in large, carry relatively similar lines. There are "leans" from time to time that books give, but an oddsmaker couldn't get too out of line with anything for long without losing his job.

thats true if there is a difference of opinion its by a half point or a few cents at most.

[No coincidences]

coin, out of curiosity, if this guy is on to something shouldnt your other 2 dozen friends who bet online and look to follow the top pick also be killing it as well?

They aren't killing it, but they are hitting more than I've ever seen them hit in the past six months (with mostly faves and overs).

[Ralphie1412]

No coin is so bitter. His friend is killing it betting based on teams and players and no coin has dedicated his life to watching lines and he's getting killed.

You suck, move on.

[hydrosmak]

So if this is true locals must be getting raped. Most of their players are going to be squares right?

[No coincidences]

So if this is true locals must be getting raped. Most of their players are going to be squares right?

My buddy's local threatened to cut him off this morning -- or at least stop playing parlays.

Can you believe that? A bookie not wanting to take parlay action?

[spankie]

mods, saloon this shit.

[thetrinity]

They aren't killing it, but they are hitting more than I've ever seen them hit in the past six months (with mostly faves and overs).

In coins defense my local who is a bit of a whiner has said its been a rough few months. I still know personally a few guys who cant pick their nose.

[dfberger23]

You are over-thinking gambling. RLM and who the public is on means nothing.

[No coincidences]

You are over-thinking gambling. RLM and who the public is on means nothing.

I've never said it was the end-all be-all. You still have to cap and watch games. It's always been something worth considering, though. To dismiss it and say it "means nothing" is a bit extreme. It was a very helpful tool that cashed a lot of bets for me in my first year-plus of gambling. Doesn't seem to be hitting at the rate it once was, but then again -- and contrary to popular belief -- I don't follow it close enough to say for sure so maybe I'm just picking/skipping over the wrong games when I do notice it. Again, I don't know.

[No coincidences]

In coins defense my local who is a bit of a whiner has said its been a rough few months. I still know personally a few guys who cant pick their nose.

I know a local in my area (don't do business with him) that has said, off the cuff, the same thing. He was taking a lot of hits during college football in particular, and early in the NFL season with all of the overs. Didn't talk to him during basketball season.

[hydrosmak]

I think a lot of the posts in here are more directed to No Coin than the topic. I think there some valid points made by NC and all I keep seeing is generic statements about variance and personal attacks about his betting style. The lines are made the way they are for a reason. Lakers lines are inflated because the books know no matter what they make the line the public will bet on the Lakers. They are covering the spread at around 40% yet people still bet them more than their opponent.

To me it makes sense that the books would look to have the public get more of the wins if they can manipulate the spreads in that manner. The public isn't good with money management (as a whole) so they will just piss away their winnings on props and stupid bets anyhow or in Vegas at slots and whatever else.

[No coincidences]

I think a lot of the posts in here are more directed to No Coin than the topic. I think there some valid points made by NC and all I keep seeing is generic statements about variance and personal attacks about his betting style. The lines are made the way they are for a reason. Lakers lines are inflated because the books know no matter what they make the line the public will bet on the Lakers. They are covering the spread at around 40% yet people still bet them more than their opponent.

To me it makes sense that the books would look to have the public get more of the wins if they can manipulate the spreads in that manner. The public isn't good with money management (as a whole) so they will just piss away their winnings on props and stupid bets anyhow or in Vegas at slots and whatever else.

Now there's an example of a team that ultimately the public gave it all back with this season. They were on a 2-14 ATS run before last night. Not sure how they were doing early, but in the end, it all evened out and then some.

[Dexter]

like anything you have to adjust. i think if you saw RLM plays winning and now they're not on a consistent basis, just adjust and mix up your plays.

im sure poker players can agree - how they ran over people 10 years ago with a hyper aggressive style, is probably not the best approach all the time now that the "cat is out of the bag."

i think adjusting is a good thing. great businessmen, poker players, etc adjust/adapt over time and are not stubborn in their ways. if you're noticing a severe change in these RLM plays, start adjusting or make your screens more filtered. maybe look at only 80% or > and moves of 1 full point tick the other way without moving back before tip. i dont know...you get the point.

[Dexter]

see above

[No coincidences]

He hammered the Dodgers, D'Bags, Clippers and Mavericks tonight. All individual and parlays. Four biggest public plays of the night as well.

4-for-4 again. Unreal.

[MatI]

I have probably two dozen friends who gamble on-line.

Not a chance in hell you have two dozen friends.

[Jayvegas420]

The laker lines btw, are inflated because a greater % of the public are betting in nevada.
Just a theory I have.
And the over unders are set too high because the drunks in vegas are desperate & no one cheers for an under!
This is all real stuff.

[therushishere]

He hammered the Dodgers, D'Bags, Clippers and Mavericks tonight. All individual and parlays. Four biggest public plays of the night as well.

4-for-4 again. Unreal.

Who does he like tomorrow?

[therushishere]

The laker lines btw, are inflated because a greater % of the public are betting in nevada.
Just a theory I have.
And the over unders are set too high because the drunks in vegas are desperate & no one cheers for an under!
This is all real stuff.

What about the norcal and oregon teams? UNLV?

[PAYTON20]

No one strategy will always work or else everyone here would be rich

RLM, Fading Public, Chasing steam -- none of these work every time or even 3/4 of the time at that

I have noticed that the more square-ish NBA bets have been hitting at a higher rate recently.

For people arguing about the linesmakers... It's a computer, not a person. The computer runs every stat known to man and then spits out a number, then the books decide what to put out. Most of the time I think their goal is a 50/50 betting split but there are other times I definitely think they set a line as a trap to encourage action on one side (w/ confidence that the other side will cover). Identifying these instances is not easy though...

[warriorfan707]

The books try to minimze the gambling that they do and will go for collecting on the vig whenever they can. Thats why they move the line.

There is no whale hunting or throwing bones to small players by books. The only whale hunting they will do is the occasional banning of players.

[Jayvegas420]

What about the norcal and oregon teams? UNLV?

If youre betting on teams like UNLV & Santa Brbra you shouldn't be staying up that late to bet in the 1t place!
LOL

[Jayvegas420]

No one strategy will always work or else everyone here would be rich

RLM, Fading Public, Chasing steam -- none of these work every time or even 3/4 of the time at that

I have noticed that the more square-ish NBA bets have been hitting at a higher rate recently.

For people arguing about the linesmakers... It's a computer, not a person. The computer runs every stat known to man and then spits out a number, then the books decide what to put out. Most of the time I think their goal is a 50/50 betting split but there are other times I definitely think they set a line as a trap to encourage action on one side (w/ confidence that the other side will cover). Identifying these instances is not easy though...

I didnt know computers were capable of making these types of conscious decisions.
Sounds like a human making the inevitable decision here.