Anyway to predict line/price movement from opener to closer ?

jjgold · 04-02-12, 05:19 AM

I think guys that have models might be able to

Pete your not a math guy

Its a guess

CHAZ · 04-02-12, 08:23 AM

Popular pitchers and public teams like the Yankees/Angels are mostly likely gonna be bet into just because they are the public favs. Other then that I think you just gotta watch the early morning lines and see how they are moving.

Smoke · 04-02-12, 08:30 AM

No

Unless you have a crystal fukkin ball

d2bets · 04-02-12, 08:52 AM

That's like saying any way to predict exactly how a stock is going to move up and down every day.

wantitall4moi · 04-02-12, 09:10 AM

yeah you can but guys that do keep it close to the vest as to how they do it. When I was betting full time I was around 87% in getting lines to move enough to at least break even. In games I DID NOT bet that moved enough to make money both ways that was about 3% of all games played. Which in MLB is actually a lot of games over the time period I can check. It actually worked out to almost 25% of the total number of games I did bet. So even with a great approach that does well you can still miss some games that would have worked out better than ones you did bet.

Basically I had more chances to improve my returns than I did losing ones. If I could have replaced the 13% of the games I DID bet with the ones I DIDN'T bet I could have been 100% (more actually) since I miseed more non bets than 'bad' ones.

But basically every single MLB game played moves just depends on how much of a move constitutes a 'move', a nickle? 8 cents? a dime?

But as with every other cliched approach you cant look at openers and closers you have to look at best available, which in about 75% or so of the game is NEITHER the opener OR the closer.

High3rEl3m3nt · 04-02-12, 11:13 AM

I play 5dimes' overnight lines and last year dogs consistently lost a few points if you waited to snatch them up the following day. I have found that acting early on dogs and small home favs generally gets you the best numbers. GL.

Pete0 · 04-02-12, 11:27 PM

So I guess even bookies do not know where the line will move until they see action coming in ??

d2bets · 04-02-12, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by Pete0

So I guess even bookies do not know where the line will move until they see action coming in ??

They (or some) try. You'll see this by seeing how they shade the line at a given time.

CrazyCarl · 04-03-12, 12:23 AM

This is something I have almost no clue on, but is very valuable if you can start finding trends. I've seen some people who predict line movement more often than not, and I don't know how. Vegas doesn't always shift it the way you'd expect based on the public bets, so it's very hard to guess.

I'd say that experience probably plays a very big role.

135steward · 04-03-12, 04:50 AM

[QUOTE=CHAZ;14325210]Popular pitchers and public teams like the Yankees/Angels are mostly likely gonna be bet into just because they are the public favs. /QUOTE]

And don't forget the Red Sox and Phils. The Marlins will probably be overpriced this year, too. Look to the cities with more money than talent, and bet against them. Books know those cities, too, and will overprice those teams at the open.

Pete0 · 04-03-12, 08:01 AM

Some good info here.

Thanks men.