how long would u assume it takes to be recognized as a dependable capper

[donjuan]

ive never lost more than 6 in a row because i don't chase loses like a dumb

It has nothing to do with chasing and all to do with simple math. As your number of wagers approaches infinity, your chance of losing 10 in a row approaches 100%.

i am by far a +ev sports bettor

followed by

but if you throw everything aside you have a 50% chance of winning

Tells me all I need to know, broski.

start flipping that quarter, ill be dead before you get heads 10 times

So you are really good at picking heads or tails? That's seriously your argument?

By the way, this is a gambling forum, not an audition for To Catch a Predator so feel free to start typing like a normal human being at any time.

[durito]

I personally think it's possible to lose ten wagers in a row. Depending on your bankroll and money management it should be possible to overcome ten losses in a row.

I've lost more than 10 in a row, more than once.

[englishmike]

this is better than the daily show

You should add to the debate, it's entertaining.

[$$POOLCRAZY$$$$]

Black Jack is the worst..and craps to ,id rather bet on miami over N.E...even tho i'm 99.99999999989% sure that the pats are a lock..i'll still bet miami over a hand of black jack..take them apples from the orchard and bake sum pie bro!! That was the truth, the whole thuth, n nuttin but da truth,so help me ....

[tacomax]

no but the lottery is completely different my whole point is if you pull your head out your ass you wont loose 10 in a row ,

I once lost 15 straight hands at Blackjack. And my head was nowhere near my arse.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

I personally think it's possible to lose ten wagers in a row. Depending on your bankroll and money management it should be possible to overcome ten losses in a row.

no doubt in that you can always overcome any kind of loss with financial stability but as i said earlier i doubt anyone looses 10 in a row that wasn't chasing, just my opinion, ill continue to post my picks, you can criticize me and start a countdown if i loose 5 in a row

[tacomax]

I've lost more than 10 in a row, more than once.

Your head must have been up your arse. Right?

[englishmike]

I've lost more than 10 in a row, more than once.

So have I, many times and the only time it ever hurt was when I didn't realise the strategy of money management, whichever way you choose to manage your money.

I understand I'm open to ridicule but I hinestly beileve money management is more important than capping skill.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

when i say 50% i mean that if someone knew absolutely nothing about sports. colts -5.5 and jax +5.5 , they pick one or the other they have a 50% chance of winning, they can win or they can loose, there's nothing more to that saying. its not anything i look into. im just saying loosing 10 in a row can be hard cause everything aside you can only win or loose ( or push in certain instances)

[donjuan]

they have a 50% chance of winning, they can win or they can loose

Genius. That doesn't make something 50%.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

keep the laugh's going ill keep the picks coming, i pay rent car payment insurance and utilities off gambling so i must be doing something right, and its not the day job cause that barely covers the car payment. loosing 10 in a row can happen, obviously has and im aware of that. i just believe if you approach a few loses the right way you can avoid it. that's all

[tacomax]

I understand I'm open to ridicule but I hinestly beileve money management is more important than capping skill.

If you want to make money, both are equally important. A 55% capper with a unit size of $10,000 and a $10,000 bankroll has a pretty high risk of ruin. A 45% capper with a unit size of $1 of a $10,000 bankroll will be making bets (albeit unsuccessfully overall) for years and years.

[englishmike]

You're right, even sticking a pin in the list to pick your games should ensure you don't suffer ten losses, I suppose it depends what you're betting and whether you pick dogs. I posted a bet on a UEFA Cup Soccer thread here earlier, a two team parlay that comes to 54-1. Do i think it will win...probably not, but do I think it has a better than 54-1 chance of hitting....absoluely. If it goes down it's a loss but I do beleive the reward is better value than the potential loss.

[tacomax]

when i say 50% i mean that if someone knew absolutely nothing about sports. colts -5.5 and jax +5.5 , they pick one or the other they have a 50% chance of winning, they can win or they can loose, there's nothing more to that saying.

But what if the line is -6/+6 - you can either win, lose or push. So there's only a 33.3% chance of winning. Yikes!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

you're right, even sticking a pin i the list to pick your games should ensure you don't suffer ten losses, I suppose it depends what you're betting and whether you pick dogs. I posted a bet on a UEFA Cup Soccer thread here earlier, a two team parlay that comes to 54-1. Do i think it will win...probably not, but do I think it has a better than 54-1 chance of hitting....absoluely. If it goes down it's a loss but I do beleive the reward is better value than the potential loss.

agreed i don't think wed be placing parlays if we only believed we had a 40% chance of winning.

[englishmike]

If you want to make money, both are equally important. A 55% capper with a unit size of $10,000 and a $10,000 bankroll has a pretty high risk of ruin. A 45% capper with a unit size of $1 of a $10,000 bankroll will be making bets (albeit unsuccessfully overall) for years and years.

Interesting stats. I personally think if people put as much thought into managing their money as they do capping two pitchers they'd probably win more. Could be wrong but I do believe it.

[tacomax]

agreed i don't think wed be placing parlays if we only believed we had a 40% chance of winning.

So you wouldn't bet a 54-1 payout parlay if you only had a 40% chance of winning?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Maybe he uses the jjgold strategy of taking both sides when he gets to 9 losses in a row...

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

im referring to a 2 team parlay where its a 25% chance for you to win your bet. of course id take a 40% chance with 54-1. but i dont usually ever place wagers that i feel arnt in my favor, when you do that your gambling and not handicapping

[englishmike]

The reason I believe money management is more important than picking winners is because it's possible to make a profit by laying losers.Open an account at Betfair.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

alright boys im out, thnx for the laughs, when i loose 10 ill let you no, ill continue updating my spreadsheet every time i bet which is usually 3-4 times a week, im out

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

The reason I believe money management is more important than picking winners is because it's possible to make a profit by laying losers.Open an account at Betfair.

of course you can go 17-3 + 500 betting say 25 a pop and then increase wagers to 100 go 1-7 and be done when you were 18-10(64%) MM is key

[donjuan]

keep the laugh's going ill keep the picks coming, i pay rent car payment insurance and utilities off gambling so i must be doing something right

3 words of advice: get a vasectomy.

[rjt721]

This is my favorite thread in a long time.

[bettilimbroke999]

No one is a respected capper b/c no one makes any money at this, in the long run the juice keeps us from being able to win (53% winning picks AND YOU ARE REWARDED BY BREAKING EVEN, 53% LOSING PICKS AND YOU SLOWLY LOSE YOUR ASS) , simply throw darts at a dartboard and you'll be better than half the cappers here and much better than donjuan. Do this for fun and entertainment, if you think you're going to profit at this in the long-run get off tha drugs son

[donjuan]

Betlittleimbroke,

Heads up handicapping contest?

[bettilimbroke999]

Betlittleimbroke,

Heads up handicapping contest?

Not in the mood dumbjuan

[dwaechte]

I officially waive all of my previous 'Best. Thread. Ever' statements. This one takes the cake.

Step #1 to becoming a winning gambler according to UntilTheNDofTimE: Be a giant attention whore.

[donjuan]

Not in the mood dumbjuan

Surely if I'm such a poor sports bettor, you'd want to take a bet that for once in your life had +EV? Or do you just hate money?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Ahh. Another one of the I can't win so nobody can crowd. Delightful. How refreshing..

[etothep]

The gambling gods will surely not take kindly to this thread...i see fades in the not too distant future

[bettilimbroke999]

Surely if I'm such a poor sports bettor, you'd want to take a bet that for once in your life had +EV? Or do you just hate money?

I would have no way of getting paid when you lost, besides it wouldn't help me at all to beat an idiot degenerate, it wouldn't raise my confidence in my capping ability as I already know there is no way to win at this long-term. I do this for fun and entertainment you're already proving I'm 10x smarter than you by even thinking you can make a living at this joke BS trying to predict whether a pitcher will pitch good or bad for a particular game , gl2u dumbjuan

[donjuan]

I would have no way of getting paid when you lost

I wouldn't do it without using an escrow service or having an agreed upon poster hold the money.

besides it wouldn't help me at all to beat an idiot degenerate

So you hate money.

It wouldn't raise my confidence in my capping ability as I already know there is no way to win at this long-term.

So people who are professional sports bettors are liars. Better go tell the IRS.

I do this for fun and entertainment you're already proving I'm 10x smarter than you by even thinking you can make a living at this joke BS trying to predict whether a pitcher will pitch good or bad for a particular game

I can see you've thought about this deeply. Now tell me this. Pinnacle offers -150/+140 on a baseball game. SIA offers +160 on the dog. So you could just arb it and guarantee a profit. However, you could also realize that if there is an arbitrage opportunity, at least one of the sides has to have +EV. How does that fit into your world where there are no +EV bets out there? How about 6 pt football teasers crossing the 3 and 7? Are you suggesting those have -EV at +100?

[bettilimbroke999]

Donny your bookie called, told me to tell ya he hasn't received this month's installment

[reno cool]

Sounds like the kid is doing well. He might not be expressing himself correctly, or not using correct lingo. But thats no reason to get down on him. Unless he's straight up lying he might be a good handicapper.
Are you all just jealous of some one who might be winning without arbing or similar?