how likely is this poker scenario SBR?

[milwaukee mike]

wondering if a math guy could run the numbers on losing to running 66 while holding an over set, i know hitting 66 is (2/45 x 1/44) one in 1000 roughly but how likely is it to run into that while i have a dominating hand too?

flop came k49 rainbow after i raised preflop from the button with kk, only the big blind stayed. then 6 diamonds for 2 diamonds on the board, big blind bets i min raise, then all ins. then the case 6 on the river.

oh and of course this happened on sbr in the tournament this morning in case you were wondering

[King Mayan]

Shit happens to me everytime.

I'm going to start playing shit hole cards.

[RudyRuetigger]

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

[k13]

50%

[k13]

On a serious note Mike, 0.10%.

So you were only a 99.9% fave.

[milwaukee mike]

yeah i know the odds after the flop are 1000-1 in my favor, but i'm wondering what the odds would be of this stuff even happening (it's ridiculously unlikely to even get to that point with me flopping overpair)?

might be impossible to calculate accurately, but i have probably played millions of hands of online poker and nowhere other than sbr have i seen so many cooler hands like this dealt.

also today i had 89 flop came 789, other guy had 10j and other guy had 9/10 spades (78 on the board were spades)

so sbr actually deals the only 3 people in the hand on the flop:
1) top 2 pair
2) straight (nuts)
3) top pair and open ended straight flush draw

the odds of this have to be completely crazy

[horja1]

wondering if a math guy could run the numbers on losing to running 66 while holding an over set, i know hitting 66 is (2/45 x 1/44) one in 1000 roughly but how likely is it to run into that while i have a dominating hand too?

flop came k49 rainbow after i raised preflop from the button with kk, only the big blind stayed. then 6 diamonds for 2 diamonds on the board, big blind bets i min raise, then all ins. then the case 6 on the river.

oh and of course this happened on sbr in the tournament this morning in case you were wondering

that's really ugly ... happened to me too, at a cash table, a few years ago ... all-in AA vs 1010 ... got an A on the flop and then he got the turn and river ... I could not believe it ... I think I actually did not move for a few minutes

[jeffdane]

did he get 4 6's?

[Haxior]

This is SBR poker, math is pointless here

[k13]

Had a better one on PS.

JJ Flop JJx

turn Q river Q

I lose.

[wtt0315]

probably as likely as dudleydickson not being a ghost.

[ballahollic2]

some of the hands on lockpoker recently have been absolutely absurd also. I have twice flopped set over set to only be one outed after getting it all in in the past 3 days.

[LVHerbie]

Without provided the exact math of the scenario you described since I don't think it was what you really are seeking (and it is kindof a poor practice to use the odds of one abnormal happening before it occurs once it already happened to try to validate/invalidate your play)...

Is the result your described likely? No
Does it happen? Yes
Will you win long term if most of the time you usually get in with the best of it? Yes

[playersonly69]

Well I saw someone get knocked out of the Main Event at the WSOP this year and he had four 10's and lost to a Royal Flush on the river

[PickWinnerAllDay]

I once lost with a straight flush so I'm never surprised at how the cards fall anymore.

[aceking]

sometimes you get lucky .

[DerekMadden]

sometimes you get lucky .

very smart to get a screenshot!

[fixxer]

Exactly the same happened with me, when I played offline poker with friends this weekends....poker sometimes cheats with chances and probabilities, and funny - and not so funny - things happen often

[ericthegangster]

sometimes you get lucky .

I like the thing on there that tells you your current hand ranking - "You have a royal flush"

I think for a royal flush they should remove the "You have a royal flush" sentence and just show cartoon man with a flaccid penis who looks up at the board, gets an erection, and starts masturbating until he pops all over your hole cards.

[milwaukee mike]

Exactly the same happened with me, when I played offline poker with friends this weekends....poker sometimes cheats with chances and probabilities, and funny - and not so funny - things happen often

you really got dealt pocket kings, hit a king on a rainbow flop, and then he hit running 6s to beat you?

sorry i have to call bullshit on that story

i do agree that funny things happen but i'm telling you i have played millions of hands and never had that exact scenario happen kk vs 66. lost to runner runner for quads more than a couple times though...

[horja1]

I think for a royal flush they should remove the "You have a royal flush" sentence and just show cartoon man with a flaccid penis who looks up at the board, gets an erection, and starts masturbating until he pops all over your hole cards.

Well ... I think I would actually fold preflop to avoid seing that

[RedSox88]

so your not looking for the exact odds of being beaten by 66 when you already flopped a set of KK

but are wondering how likley this senario would even happen

to answer your question i have logged over 650,000 hands using poker tracker 3

this has never happened to me and i dont think it ever will

so in other words its one of the worst situations i have ever heard about that actually happened


it wont happen again

ever

[Ninersnut]

so your not looking for the exact odds of being beaten by 66 when you already flopped a set of KK

but are wondering how likley this senario would even happen

to answer your question i have logged over 650,000 hands using poker tracker 3

this has never happened to me and i dont think it ever will

so in other words its one of the worst situations i have ever heard about that actually happened


it wont happen again

ever

Unless you sign up for a daily tournament here.

[mp5070]

What day was that Flush?

[d2bets]

sometimes you get lucky .

So how did the hand finish?

[SlickRick1382]

So how did the hand finish?

It's SBR so I'm certain he lost somehow.

Maybe the system made him auto fold ....

[mikew]

just stop it, disguising your 'math' question as a bad beat story basically you are looking for the odds on this parlay: you being dealt KK, villian being dealt 66, flop being dealt K94r, turn being dealt 6, river being dealt 6. go calc

[daneblazer]

So how did the hand finish?

Someone had pocket Jacks. The turn was a jack, the river was a jack. 5 of a kind > Royal Flush.

[milwaukee mike]

just stop it, disguising your 'math' question as a bad beat story basically you are looking for the odds on this parlay: you being dealt KK, villian being dealt 66, flop being dealt K94r, turn being dealt 6, river being dealt 6. go calc

not a bad beat story, an "sbr story"

i write just as much about the crazy stuff that happens in my favor, for example today heads up in a .25/.50 cash game i flopped a straight flush. a 1 in 5000 thing that seems to happen quite a bit more than 1 in 5000 times that i'm holding suited connectors.

it really WAS a math question because as i said, i have played millions of hands and would be the last one to complain about a bad beat especially in a freeroll for peanuts.

but i guess some people just assume anyone is whining when they ask a question, maybe i'll see you at the tables mikew and maybe i won't. but you can easily ask around and see if i am one to cry about these things or just say "nh" "gg" and move on.

but if you want to criticize me for posting an interesting story/question about overset getting beat by runner runner for quads then just ignore the thread and move on.

[milwaukee mike]

just stop it, disguising your 'math' question as a bad beat story basically you are looking for the odds on this parlay: you being dealt KK, villian being dealt 66, flop being dealt K94r, turn being dealt 6, river being dealt 6. go calc

this is the part of your response i really love. dude that's been here for 5 minutes telling one of the most senior and valuable members of sbr what to do

maybe i should ask your permission before posting from now on so i get the semantics right and you're not offended by my wording

[LVHerbie]

so your not looking for the exact odds of being beaten by 66 when you already flopped a set of KK

but are wondering how likley this senario would even happen

to answer your question i have logged over 650,000 hands using poker tracker 3

this has never happened to me and i dont think it ever will

so in other words its one of the worst situations i have ever heard about that actually happened


it wont happen again

ever

Come on I call bullshit on you playing that many hands and never seen a equally unique suck out (which, the OP stated himself, it wasn't really all that special since the money didn't get in till after the second player caught a set and it was "only" like 1 in 44 of the suckout happening at that point (a little rarer then say hitting a specific number on a roulette wheel)...

Regardless here is my favorite hand of poker (was the second table a double shootout sat on pokerstars where the first two got a seat into the weekly $215 and third got some insignificant amount of cash back) were the money did get in needing one card runner runner outs to hit...

PokerStars Game #6593679481: Tournament #33279439, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level V (75/150) - 2006/10/11 - 02:31:11 (ET)
Table '33279439 1' 8-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: HerbieX101 (2620 in chips)
Seat 4: bbxprs (3590 in chips)
Seat 8: doctor tilt (5790 in chips)
bbxprs: posts small blind 75
doctor tilt: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HerbieX101 [2d 7h]
HerbieX101: raises 300 to 450
bbxprs: folds
doctor tilt: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [Td Th 2s]
doctor tilt: checks
HerbieX101: bets 750
doctor tilt: raises 750 to 1500
HerbieX101: raises 670 to 2170 and is all-in
doctor tilt: calls 670
*** TURN *** [Td Th 2s] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Td Th 2s 2h] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
doctor tilt: shows [Kd Tc] (a full house, Tens full of Deuces)
HerbieX101: shows [2d 7h] (four of a kind, Deuces)
HerbieX101 collected 5315 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5315 | Rake 0
Board [Td Th 2s 2h 2c]
Seat 3: HerbieX101 (button) showed [2d 7h] and won (5315) with four of a kind, Deuces
Seat 4: bbxprs (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: doctor tilt (big blind) showed [Kd Tc] and lost with a full house, Tens full of Deuces

[milwaukee mike]

nice one there herbie

you kept the history from over 5 years ago?

i'm pretty sure "doctor tilt" would be on major tilt after that one, i actually laughed it off cuz it was just sbr points but for $215 i'd probably swear a little bit.

bodog had a poker tournament where the top 5 got a free trip to hawaii for a poker tournament and party with shannon elizabeth and snoop dogg.
i had over half the chips with 10 people left and still didn't get top 5 (got 7th). after getting sucked out on a couple times, i still had the chip lead but lost most of my chips with 10/6 in the blinds after a 10/6/2 flop. i bet, got raised, reraise, etc to all-in with my opponent on jj. needless to say he caught a 2 for bigger 2 pair.

not a terrible bad beat, but one that really stung because i was just slow playing my way to 5th until hitting top 2 pair with nothing scary on the flop. and it also stung because it was more than just money, i knew i would never have the chance to meet those celebs again.

[LVHerbie]

nice one there herbie

you kept the history from over 5 years ago?

I posted it before so I just refound it through google... But it is my favorite hand so I'll never forget it...

[RudyRuetigger]

herbie, its obvious you are smart and know poker...so are you pulling an "insert poster here who pretends to be broke" and not really in the current situation you portray or if you are, what the hell happened? you are obviously capable of good things

[RudyRuetigger]