Can A Banged Up Jokovic Beat Raffy Nadal AGAIN????

[jjgold]

I say yes and hear is why

Extreme pressure on Nadal not Joker
Joker it seems has batting practice against Nadal's ground game because of all short and high balls
Joker a better server day in and day out

Nadal's only chance is if he gets his first serve in at a decent rate, if not straight sets

6-4, 6-3, 7-5

[face]

yea but think about playing a four-five set match against rafa after all that he just did. no way. i think rafa will take it, djoker will be tired as fuk.

[Domestic]

Joker will be fine, he has 43 hours to rest up.

[k13]

nadal is +133

might be right

[blackbeSSt]

gimme plus money on rafa all day long.

[jjgold]

Guys do you realize Joker Owns Raffy on every surface even clay??

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Probably. They're so doped-up nowadays that a long match the round before doesn't matter.

[EaglesPhan36]

JJ you're such a schmuck. IF Nadal loses, no way it comes in straight sets. Even last year when Djokovic was dominant, he never beat Rafa in straights at a Slam. Djokovic has shown definite vulnerability over the last few rounds and if anyone can pounce on that + work his fitness concerns, it is Rafa. I think for the good of the men's game, Rafa needs to win this.

[Betn247]

JJ you're such a schmuck. IF Nadal loses, no way it comes in straight sets. Even last year when Djokovic was dominant, he never beat Rafa in straights at a Slam. Djokovic has shown definite vulnerability over the last few rounds and if anyone can pounce on that + work his fitness concerns, it is Rafa. I think for the good of the men's game, Rafa needs to win this.

Agree 100%, This isnt the same guy who was running everyone off the court last year ADV RAFA

[FourLengthsClear]

Really tough call and even though I think it is right that Djoker is favourite, it is hard to argue against Nadal at +140 being the better bet.

Even with a lot of cheap points against Murray, Djokovic was clearly struggling with fatigue fairly early in the match and you just know that Nadal is going to extend every point early to try and exploit that lack of conditioning.

[face]

djokovic's serve was not hitting. oodles of second serve points for murray to have a chance with. djokovic has to slam some first serves in if he wants to beat nadal. i cant put money on this match cause i want djoker to win so bad, but nadal seems like a good idea of a bet.

[Holtgetsback]

joker has defeated nadal 6 times in a row.

even with that said, I am not sure what the best bet is

[shari91]

Djoko's press conference after the Murray match: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/...677228095.html

I really have my doubts about him pulling up physically, especially with him yapping about flower allergies. If the price rises a little more on Nadal, I'm hopping on although I had predicted +120 to +130 and if FLC's s seeing +140 now, I think this may be the time.

[Jaug]

Never bet on the joker.

[Betn247]

joker has defeated nadal 6 times in a row. even with that said, I am not sure what the best bet is

He isnt in nearly the same form as he was last year IMO.....that being said if the sets is set @ 3.5 I am gonna pound that

[shari91]

He isnt in nearly the same form as he was last year IMO.....that being said if the sets is set @ 3.5 I am gonna pound that

Over 3.5 sets -250 at Bet365. I'm on that already although that amount of chalk yet again (after just betting it on Djoko) is going to be the end of me. If this goes less than 4 sets, then I can only assume Nadal would be the winner.

[Mikail]

That's the million dollar question. My answer? Yeah, if anyone can pull it off it'd be Novak Djokovic. Even when he's not in top form the guy still can hold his own against the best. Not sure who i'm backing but i'm already excited for this finals.

[EaglesPhan36]

I am going to wait and see if the public is dumb enough to help raise the total # of games up to 40. See it opened at 39.5 and is juiced already @ -128 at 5Dimes. Looking at their last few Slam meetings and factoring fatigue, Under 40 might be a play for me.

[shari91]

I am going to wait and see if the public is dumb enough to help raise the total # of games up to 40. See it opened at 39.5 and is juiced already @ -128 at 5Dimes. Looking at their last few Slam meetings and factoring fatigue, Under 40 might be a play for me.

The problem is that's what I bloody thought today. I'm sure I'll end up on Nadal anyway and I'd be stunned if Djoko can do this in 3. If Nadal does, then so be it and he can cover my loss on the over 3.5. Of course if Djoko pulls a straight setter out of his arse then I'm f'd

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah it will depend how high that # goes for me. I just think the same as today that with the way either guy can run away with a set quickly there will be lopsided sets like today and if you look at their history tie breaks are more of a rarity as well. Of course, I said that with Dolgpolov and Tomic too and those two fukks played some very tight sets ... speaking of which, is that asshole still holed up in his house?

[FourLengthsClear]

Djoko's press conference after the Murray match: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/...677228095.html

I really have my doubts about him pulling up physically, especially with him yapping about flower allergies. If the price rises a little more on Nadal, I'm hopping on although I had predicted +120 to +130 and if FLC's s seeing +140 now, I think this may be the time.

Yeah, he is +140 at Betfair now. For me it really a no-brainer because I would bet him in the Tournament winner market to offset my Djoker bet. The commission offset means I am getting effective odds of +145.

The upshot of all that means that I essentially ended up betting Djoker to beat Murray at -290 which doesn't make me feel very good!

[nyplayer33]

I like Nadal to win this..don't think dfjork looked good vs Murray and that was a very exhausting and draining match...

[shari91]

Yeah, he is +140 at Betfair now. For me it really a no-brainer because I would bet him in the Tournament winner market to offset my Djoker bet. The commission offset means I am getting effective odds of +145.

The upshot of all that means that I essentially ended up betting Djoker to beat Murray at -290 which doesn't make me feel very good!

LOL. Yeah -290 on that is a bit icky when you think of it after the fact. I just took Nadal +141 at Pinny. I haven't looked at anything further data wise and I probably won't... the fact I'm even betting a Final other than hedging a futures bet is mind boggling to me. But I'm just going to go with my first instinct on this one and be done with it because I'm so tired of analysing these same players multiple times a day at this point. If I end up screwing myself over between this and the over 3.5, so be it.

[Demonata]

Djoker can win this match. He will have plenty of rest and will be determined.

[benrama]

My take on this is that I think Joker will feel like he needs to win in straight sets - 4 maximum - to win this; he simply won't get any free points with Rafa and he will be sure to exploit Joker's physical problems. Murray may have stepped up his game, but he's no Rafa mentally.

My thoughts on this match are that Joker comes out firing and wins the first set, and then true to form the physical problems start kicking in and the momentum swings to Rafa. I think my bets on the final will be along these lines - Joker to win 1st set; live bet on Rafa at good underdog odds at the end of the 1st set.

[BernardMadoff]

Don't worry about Nole's conditioning he'll be fine, but his form isn't the greatest right now. He always looks like he might be getting tired he's back to running around like a bunny rabbit.

[jjgold]

This is Raffy's chance man

He has to win so a lot of pressure on him

Joker tough to bet against though

[shari91]

This is Raffy's chance man

He has to win so a lot of pressure on him

Joker tough to bet against though

I think anyone betting either side with confidence - unless they're greening out a futures bet - is delusional. And we'll see 40 threads again just like today from people declaring the winner when really it was a coin flip. And yet they never return to their threads???

If someone's putting money on this match, like I did like a nutter, they should just view it as a fun bet. There is no lock. There is no "xxx will win", anything. And when people lose, those threads will never be bumped and they'll disappear from the Tennis Forum because a Slam is over. Yet the rest of us will stay because we realise betting softer lines in smaller tourneys is much more conducive to growing our roll than betting a Slam Final which is the equivalent of the Superbowl except the money wagered worldwide will be much larger for the tennis match.

[jjgold]

If you watched all the finals Joker won last year against Raffy he really was never close to winning even though Nadal got sets off him

Joker was always in control with intense hitting, Nadal played pretty well too in all the finals

[Betn247]

Over 3.5 sets -250 at Bet365. I'm on that already although that amount of chalk yet again (after just betting it on Djoko) is going to be the end of me. If this goes less than 4 sets, then I can only assume Nadal would be the winner.

I like it.....I am on this as well already too, can't believe they wouldnt go 4.5, they should make some back tonight on total sets in the womens game as that is always a toss up!

[YOUSENKO]

Remember last year at Wimbledon final Joker was like +133. At US he was only slight fav at -110. Today nadal is +144 because he serve like shit. Djoker can break him every game. I think he'll win again, Murray don't give him top spin to eat.

[face]

djoker serving poorly as well though. gl

[Jonah]

Joker doesn't look as scary as he did last year. Looks like a little bit better version of his three years-ago self. Still fights tho. Nadal's first serve looked fine against Fed. He is peaking at the right time. I like that he is hitting more winners and big shots than Joker right now, at least it seems.

[boondoggle]

probably. They're so doped-up nowadays that a long match the round before doesn't matter.

+100000

[jjgold]

Joker doesn't look as scary as he did last year. Looks like a little bit better version of his three years-ago self. Still fights tho. Nadal's first serve looked fine against Fed. He is peaking at the right time. I like that he is hitting more winners and big shots than Joker right now, at least it seems.

Great write up


He does seem slightly off but not much
He is still in the final

If Nadal loses he should quit