don't overthink the super bowl people

[tony_come]

Books would get kill if giants cover or win

[Monitor-Tan]

When you have 2 marketable team, with marketable "plot", bias is inevitable by everyone.. As someone said.. Vegas couldn't do anything but to give fg to the pats...

I see a lot of "history" and stats in a lot of arguement, but not enough about match ups..

NFL. NBA, NHL MLB, they are all pros.. some teams just match up so well against another, they are like their "kryptonites"...

How about we talk about the match ups instead of finger pointing and the bashing..

[Monitor-Tan]

I would also like to point out that, Eli winning at the Superbowl can be argued as being "lucky", but when you win again AT NEW ENGLAND, where they won like what 20 + in a row, that's no longer luck considered luck, so atleast come up with something better then eli being lucky to beat the pats.. Lets argue with match ups and facts..

[milwaukee mike]

When you have 2 marketable team, with marketable "plot", bias is inevitable by everyone.. As someone said.. Vegas couldn't do anything but to give fg to the pats...

I see a lot of "history" and stats in a lot of arguement, but not enough about match ups..

NFL. NBA, NHL MLB, they are all pros.. some teams just match up so well against another, they are like their "kryptonites"...

How about we talk about the match ups instead of finger pointing and the bashing..

patriots with 2 weeks to prepare, are pretty good at exploiting matchups and filling their own cracks.

i think the giants have no defensive scheme that will take away what gronkowski and hernandez can do.
gronkowski is just a total beast, and i'm assuming he will be close to 100%.

gronkowski/hernandez combined for 150 yards and 2 tds in the first matchup.

[milwaukee mike]

Me saying it's freaking awesome that Eli Manning is going to face (& beat) Peyton Manning's nemesis in Peyton's house is one of the best storylines for Superbowl week. You don't have to be a Giants fan to actually realize that. C'mon, man! Get with the program.

i think a better storyline will be brady and the patriots whipping eli in indianapolis just like they used to whip peyton.


brady era = patriots 8-5 vs colts outscoring them 401-335

and pretty much every one of those colts teams were much much better than this giants team

[rsnnh12]

Giants D can't stop Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker, and if they put the emphasis on them and somehow slow them down, BJGE, Woodhead, and Ridley (not sure of his status though) will have a field day. All capable runners with different styles. Good luck stopping the big 3 without completely abandoning your run D. Pats O line has looked good, and Brady reads defenses and adjusts blockers better than anyone in the game. If the Giants can't get pressure with their front 4 they'll be in for a long day, because you can't blitz Brady.

Wilfork vs the Giants center could be the most overlooked matchup of this game. I believe the C is a little banged up, and if you didn't see what Vince did to the Baltimore line, you need to rewatch that game. He tore them up, which allowed pressure to get to Flacco. Mark Anderson has had a great year, Ellis is healthy, Spikes is healthy, and Chung is healthy. The Giants need to abuse Edelman when he's on D, because the rest of the Pats can hold their own most of the time, especially when aided by a pass rush.

Should be an exciting game. I have the Pats winning by a few, but if Eli is on fire, the Giants can easily take it

[k13]

I wish I was stupidly cocky enough as these Giants fans so I would not have to hedge my futures.

Reminds me of all these LSU backers/fans we had.

[Monitor-Tan]

There's history to be made here folks..

If Giants win, Eli just might be the best Giants QB of all time, and may be the only one with multiple SB wins in Giants franchise, I can be wrong on that, as I'm really not digging into the history right now, so I can be wrong..


If Pats win, this will undoubtedly put brady as top 3 QB of ALL TIME WITHOUT a shadow of a doubt, with another SB win..


Here's something I don't think anyone has mentioned I don't think...

Patriots suck on the pass defense, there's no if and or buts about it, they give up A LOT of yardage..
However, patriots are actually in the middle last time I checked ranked somwhere around 16th, GIVING UP A TD in the REDZONE...

Giants struggle in the redzone, ranked almost dead last or pretty bad down there on the list somewhere..

Patriots have been really getting a lot of short passes, and this was to be expected playing Baltimore.. Ravens were willing to give the small yards so welker doesn't go off on yards after catch, and gronk going off on them..

This means, it will come down to will giants convert on the big plays.. Giants MUST convert on big plays to win this game because they blow on redzone, and pats actually have descent defense in the redzone...

I think this game will come down to, which team will convert on the BIG PLAYS...

Another thing to consider is, Welker has been dinged up and he hasn't really been a big factor the last few weeks... Gronk is reported to have some ligament damage but should still be effective..

For the pats, the big play isn't about gronk.. It will be about welker and the yards after the catch..

The reason why Giants defense has been ok the last few weeks is, they haven't missed a lot of open field tackles.. Minimizing the YAC..

Qustion is will giants continue to make tackes and not like welker go off on the YAC..

[Saltbagger]

if he will most likely win it then why are the giants an underdog

Generally Accepted Wagering Principle #1 states that lines are set to attract equal money on both sides as the bookmaker happily takes his vig + prop money, and rests easy at night.

And for whoever said "Vegas" was taking a position on the Giants, I think you need counseling. How and why would any bookmaker take any "position" in a game which 4 Billion dollars are estimated to be wagered on worldwide?

It's just another business, they have a model and plan they stick to unless they get stuck after setting a soft line or fail to adjust quickly enough for public perception. I can not think of a logical explanation as to why they'd ever pass up walking with millions in vig + additional props income, to take some type of ridiculous risk on of actually losing money on their biggest money maker of the year but feel free to explain.

Personally, I think the line means nothing here, nothing more than their best guess to garner a 50/50 split on a tough game to predict. I don't think they want to be in a position to care who wins.

I think the game will be decided by 3-4 points and I don't know who will win. So I'll just be hoping for a total play (lean: Under) and search for a few weak prop lines, good luck to everyone else whichever way you go.....

[milwaukee mike]

Generally Accepted Wagering Principle #1 states that lines are set to attract equal money on both sides as the bookmaker happily takes his vig + prop money, and rests easy at night.

And for whoever said "Vegas" was taking a position on the Giants, I think you need counseling. How and why would any bookmaker take any "position" in a game which 4 Billion dollars are estimated to be wagered on worldwide?

It's just another business, they have a model and plan they stick to unless they get stuck after setting a soft line or fail to adjust quickly enough for public perception. I can not think of a logical explanation as to why they'd ever pass up walking with millions in vig + additional props income, to take some type of ridiculous risk on of actually losing money on their biggest money maker of the year but feel free to explain.

Personally, I think the line means nothing here, nothing more than their best guess to garner a 50/50 split on a tough game to predict. I don't think they want to be in a position to care who wins.

I think the game will be decided by 3-4 points and I don't know who will win. So I'll just be hoping for a total play (lean: Under) and search for a few weak prop lines, good luck to everyone else whichever way you go.....

ok then if you say there could be a bias in the line just to get even numbers on each side, let's look at the UNBIASED COMPUTER NUMBERS.
sagarin predictor ratings
patriots 30.07
giants 27.26

implying a spread of patriots -2.81 on a neutral field (strange how similar that is to the point spread, huh?)

[Saltbagger]

Good Luck

anyone that thinks the giants will win the superbowl this year in this situation under these circumstances should never bet football again. this is much easier than picking gb last year, which was already a pretty easy spread because of the way the line opened. This game is gonna be a 14+ point win for the Pats.

Bellicheck does not lose to the same team in the superbowl twice. he is buried in film right now. neutralize the giants D line and you win the game. I'm pretty sure Bill is reviewing everything from last time.

Sounds logical...

So anyone that thinks team A, that has already beaten team B in their own house....
Could possibly beat team B again on a neutral field....
Should never bet on football again...
because team B's coach is watching film to prepare to play in the Super Bowl?

[milwaukee mike]

saltbagger once you are here a while you will see tons of these "if you think ... you should never bet again" statements.

they are ridiculous and only meant to grab attention or get a response

[Mr Handicapable]

The Giants put up 24 in Foxboro without Nicks or Bradshaw. I'm on the Giants but I can see the Pats out scoring them if they lose the TEs in coverage like they lost Vernon Davis. One thing I can't see whatsoever is the Pats covering with the Under? I wasn't expecting 55 and I'm thinking it might trickle down a tiny bit?

[GamblerSpirit]

The Giants put up 24 in Foxboro without Nicks or Bradshaw. I'm on the Giants but I can see the Pats out scoring them if they lose the TEs in coverage like they lost Vernon Davis. One thing I can't see whatsoever is the Pats covering with the Under? I wasn't expecting 55 and I'm thinking it might trickle down a tiny bit?

Gronkowsi is going to be hurt and easily can be a liability for the Pats if he steps on the field. That injury looked pretty bad.

[Saltbagger]

ok then if you say there could be a bias in the line just to get even numbers on each side, let's look at the UNBIASED COMPUTER NUMBERS.
sagarin predictor ratings
patriots 30.07
giants 27.26

implying a spread of patriots -2.81 on a neutral field (strange how similar that is to the point spread, huh?)

Mike, I'm not saying there's no formula, rhyme or reason to the line they set, I'm just responding to the numerous posts relating to the line indicating or meaning much of anything to get some kind of idea "what Vegas wants". So maybe I shouldn't have been quoting your post to begin with. I agree that they use their formulas/systems similar to what you have shown here, and then they adjust that number based on what they feel the current public perception is to get the money where they want it...

And again, this is just my opinion, I really can not see as to why they wouldn't be looking for even money here. I'm not one to really believe in the "trap theories" that a lot other people do or that they really ever want to take a position on any big game unless they're stuck doing so.

I think it's interesting it ever opened at -3.5 anywhere to begin with, I would have guessed -3, and it never budging. But I've also read a lot of interesting articles quoting bookmakers themselves, that they will always lose on a -3 line that pushes, factoring in teasers and big money bettors who tend to buy the hook off a key number. Which makes this all the more interesting.......

[milwaukee mike]

Gronkowsi is going to be hurt and easily can be a liability for the Pats if he steps on the field. That injury looked pretty bad.

there is a possibility of that, if he was out or not close to 100% i would consider hedging my action, he's probably the most important player on either team not named tom or eli.

[Mr Handicapable]

i think a better storyline will be brady and the patriots whipping eli in indianapolis just like they used to whip peyton.


brady era = patriots 8-5 vs colts outscoring them 401-335

and pretty much every one of those colts teams were much much better than this giants team

You're better than this Milwaukee? Peyton won 4 of the last 6 vs Brady....and more than half of the games were on grass in Foxboro vs a far far superior defense anyway? All I know is this....the Giants already beat these guys this year without Nicks & Bradshaw and Eli beat Brady last time with a weaker team when Brady had a better team.

[rsnnh12]

Gronkowsi is going to be hurt and easily can be a liability for the Pats if he steps on the field. That injury looked pretty bad.

Sounds like wishful thinking from the Giants fan. He's fine, he'll play in the Super Bowl. If he's in any pain then, which there's a good chance he won't be, adrenaline and painkillers will solve that for the game. Don't worry, Gronk will be out there shredding the Giants D

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Giants ML/Giants+/and the UNDER............BOL!

[milwaukee mike]

You're better than this Milwaukee? Peyton won 4 of the last 6 vs Brady....and more than half of the games were on grass in Foxboro vs a far far superior defense anyway? All I know is this....the Giants already beat these guys this year without Nicks & Bradshaw and Eli beat Brady last time with a weaker team when Brady had a better team.

we can both choose to tilt stats in our favor.
you can say peyton won 4 of the last 6 (actually 5 of his last 7), i can say brady has won 8 of the 13 times he faced the colts.

and we would both be right

yes the giants won but do you really think the patriots are going to have 4 turnovers again?
the patriots outgained the giants big-time in that game, and despite 4 turnovers, still had the lead before a miracle last minute drive.

way too many people saying "well the giants beat the patriots this year in new england". i will take my chances on the patriots side, they outgained new york by 438-281 until that last minute drive that wouldn't have happened if the patriots would've had better clock management on their own quick td drive.

[ByeShea]

Pats are a one man team and he has a bad ankle this game is a mismatch, the Giants have the advantage on both sides of the ball.

So the Pats are a one man team - and that man is not Tom Brady?

I can't believe ESPN hasn't signed you yet. Are you holding out for a bigger contract?

[Jmdurbz]

Deja blue

[rm18]

The patriots have never won a Super Bowl by over 3 points, don't overthink it

[milwaukee mike]

The patriots have never won a Super Bowl by over 3 points, don't overthink it

and the patriots have never faced a team in the super bowl that gave up more points on the season than they scored.

so what?

everything hasn't happened until it does

i have never posted in this thread at 6:00 pm central on a wednesday so i guess that means i won't hit "submit reply" right now

[tony_come]

Books would get kill if giants cover or win

you have my approval

[milwaukee mike]

dammit tony come you've posted that screenshot in at least 3 threads already.

you're not even a pro so the $10 worth of points are really $0 worth of points...

[tony_come]

mike do you want 2pts?

[milwaukee mike]

i would love them
i apologize for the hostility, just keeping sbr traffic up

[Mr Handicapable]

Its 4 of 6 with Peyton over Brady.....Cassel vs Peyton doesn't count. Peyton might leave the Colts but I sure hope that stupid Jets game that Caldwell fk'd up wasn't his last game? This SB will be a good one but I think NEs lack of production at WR will cost them in the end....just like it did with SF.

[HedBustah1]

patriots with 2 weeks to prepare, are pretty good at exploiting matchups and filling their own cracks.

i think the giants have no defensive scheme that will take away what gronkowski and hernandez can do.
gronkowski is just a total beast, and i'm assuming he will be close to 100%.

gronkowski/hernandez combined for 150 yards and 2 tds in the first matchup.

And they lost lol, AT HOME

[p19101]

First game Nicks wasn't playing and NYG still won

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Giants ML/Giants+/and the UNDER............BOL!

That was a great game in more reasons than one!

[Jmdurbz]

The Key to the Superbowl

The Giants were the Road Team.

Road Warriors.

NYG SUPER BOWL 46 Champions!

[Sunde91]

That was a great game in more reasons than one!

wow youre like the best ive ever seen. id like to suck your edik and tell you how great you are

nothing more pathetic than bumping a thread 2 weeks after just to quote yourself out of 130 posts like anyone gives any fuk at all

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

wow youre like the best ive ever seen. id like to suck your edik and tell you how great you are

nothing more pathetic than bumping a thread 2 weeks after just to quote yourself out of 130 posts like anyone gives any fuk at all

It was all just to ruffle your feathers and i see it worked! You're too easy!