So do UCLA backers watching this game...

[donjuan]

Even if you hit at 30% ?

You won't hit at 30% unless you are betting a ton of ML underdogs. If you're talking about ATS, it's pretty much impossible to hit at 30% over a decent sample size.

[ShamsWoof10]

No one cleaned up doing anything with $100 limits.

How about you stop pretending that you don't know the limits can be raised to $500 ? You have been pulling that sh*t all summer too even after people have mentioned it to you...

I don't follow.

If you make bets at +250 and you always beat the closing line, you will clean up at 30%..

Why the f*ck don't you post your last 50 bets and prove it so everyone can see all of your +250 bets... Who says 100, 1000, or 10,000 is a big enough sample size... SAYS F*CKIN' WHO..????

Put something concreate up instead of your bullsh*t...

I don't follow.

If you make bets at +250 and you always beat the closing line, you will clean up at 30%.

It's really quite simple, and the data backs it up.

Add just 1 pt to the closing line for the home team in NCAA basketball's score the last 15 years and they will cover 54% of the time (similar numbers for the away side). If you have competent risk management and can find games off by that 1pt, you will soon be rich.

Why not just f*ckiin' middle then if that's so true..?

I don't follow.

Alert the press!!!

When LT made the comment about "his" buddy getting paid four weeks straight Cwag. was losing on it's guesses but that was before the plastering of over 5 straight weeks where CWag was on the RIGHT side.... Also most of Cwags. numbers that were off were chalk +RLines not this +250 sh*t you pull out of the air to fit your need...

[donjuan]

Why not just f*ckiin' middle then if that's so true..?

Because there's the strange thing called vigorish that likely makes the second part of the bet -EV. If I could arb/middle at no vig and fair value I'd do so every time as that is more +EG than simply betting it.

[ShamsWoof10]

Because there's the strange thing called vigorish that likely makes the second part of the bet -EV. If I could arb/middle at no vig and fair value I'd do so every time as that is more +EG than simply betting it.

It doesn't matter... With all the reloads you would still make money if that half point mattered as much as you say it does... So if the half point is a big advantage in betting the game it's even MORE SO when betting a f*ckin' half... That comment about leaving money on the table was just ignorant....

I guess he's not posting his bets to prove his point... Maybe he doesn't have big enough........ ummmmm...... sample size..?

[donjuan]

It doesn't matter... With all the reloads you would still make money if that half point mattered as much as you say it does... So if the half point is a big advantage in betting the game it's even MORE SO when betting a f*ckin' half... That comment about leaving money on the table was just ignorant....

We aren't talking about simply making money. We are talking about the play that optimally grows a bankroll, i.e. the bet or combination of bets that has the highest expected growth.

Feel free to go with a rebuttal of something other than "that's ignorant".

[donjuan]

I guess he's not posting his bets to prove his point... Maybe he doesn't have big enough........ ummmmm...... sample size..?

Or because it is not positive expected utility for me to do so.

[LT Profits]

If you bet the better number at CWag on MLB games they have been off by a wide margin you would have lost your d*ck this summer...

I could tell you from experience you are 100% wrong. CW has been vurtually like a second paycheck to me, especially their run lines.

[LT Profits]

And by the way, durito and donjaun are actually 100% correct, if you continuously beat the closing number, you will win in the long run. Losing one game does not change that, I will glaldly take Tennessee ML +100 in this game every time if it were played 100 times.

[LT Profits]

Love the responses from you guys saying you got the right number...

Taking the emotion out of the game is the only way to win.

That is correct. You can'y be a fan and expect to win long term.

[LT Profits]

Even if you hit at 30% ?

If you consistently beat closing numbers, you will hit over 50%. How much over 50% depends on how much you beat the number by.

[LT Profits]

I should say that my last post is regarding ATS bets. Money Lines obviously have different breakeven pointsm but even there, you will beat them if you continually beat the closing line.

[LT Profits]

As for those that think that takes handicapping out of the equation, not true. You still have to be a good handicapper to estimate that the line you are getting will be better than the closing line will be. A good test may be to look back at my posted plays that I put up early in the morning and compare my lines to closings.

[john pavlic]

The ending to this game was typical Phil Fulmer, he was going to play it safe and not do anything but try to tie it, cause he felt good his guy made the last field goal! The problem is he was kicking the first one str on, this one was from an angle. This will be Fulmers last year.

[ShamsWoof10]

Or because it is not positive expected utility for me to do so.

Is there "positive expected utility" for you by debating this ?

[durito]

There is to me. It's hilarious.

[donjuan]

Yes. If there wasn't, I wouldn't do so. Reeeeeeeaally difficult concepts here.

[ShamsWoof10]

Yes. If there wasn't, I wouldn't do so. Reeeeeeeaally difficult concepts here.

and what is it..?

By the way if you look back through my posts I debated this samething but I took the side of you knot heads... I think this USE to be true and is changing... I stopped doing it recently because I noticed it was changing and not working like it use to and I noticed a few of you jerkoffs are doing it now too... When people start doing it.. enough people that is..it won't work anymore....

[donjuan]

It's highly amusing to me and I expect that to continue. Hence, the positive expected utility.

[ShamsWoof10]

I could tell you from experience you are 100% wrong. CW has been vurtually like a second paycheck to me, especially their run lines.

It's not hard to catch you in a lie is it..?

I thought it was your "friend" and not you..?

I know we caught you in this lie already but I just wanted to mention it again...

[LT Profits]

It's not hard to catch you in a lie is it..?

I thought it was your "friend" and not you..?

I know we caught you in this lie already but I just wanted to mention it again...

That cat came out of the bag a long time ago.

I just didn't want CW to know it was me. However, they haven't kicked me out yet.

[ShamsWoof10]

That cat came out of the bag a long time ago.

I just didn't want CW to know it was me. However, they haven't kicked me out yet.

I know... I just wanted to point out that you have lied in the past and for a while to save face you kept denying it...

[durito]

and what is it..?

By the way if you look back through my posts I debated this samething but I took the side of you knot heads... I think this USE to be true and is changing... I stopped doing it recently because I noticed it was changing and not working like it use to and I noticed a few of you jerkoffs are doing it now too... When people start doing it.. enough people that is..it won't work anymore....

So, your contention is that gambling markets are becoming less efficient?

The data suggests otherwise, but I'd be thrilled if this was the case.

[LT Profits]

I know... I just wanted to point out that you have lied in the past and for a while to save face you kept denying it...

No, it wasn't to save face. It was because I didn't want CW to know it was me.

And besides which, what does any of this have to do with the points in this thread?

[smitch124]

The Masons are the reason...

[MonkeyF0cker]

i.e. Shams beat the closing number twice and he lost both times so he "quit" doing it. Hard to argue with this guy. You may have math on your side but he'll still call you ignorant and try to "prove" you wrong...

[donjuan]

It has nothing to do with it, of course. He's sidestepping the issue in any way possible because when anything related to expected value, market efficiency or probability distributions are brought up, he has no clue because he thinks sports betting is about "picking winners".

[durito]

shams hits over 60% at -110, he only loses because of poor money management

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yep. He'll try to call out LT rather than actually debate his award winning formulas for success...

[MonkeyF0cker]

shams hits over 60% at -110, he only loses because of poor money management

I thought it was closer to 70%. He doesn't "pick losers" I thought...

[MonkeyF0cker]

As for those that think that takes handicapping out of the equation, not true. You still have to be a good handicapper to estimate that the line you are getting will be better than the closing line will be. A good test may be to look back at my posted plays that I put up early in the morning and compare my lines to closings.

I would argue that you actually have to be a much better capper to consistently beat the closing number. Anyone can pick a side...