Good post... comes down to picking your spots with live betting... every situation is different and a 14 0 lead is not the same... lsu down 14 0 to bama is different then ok state down 14 0 to stanford.. gotta bet smart.. and do what you feel is best...to each is own... good luck
-
Comment -
Lol I won't... now you say that's plus even... what do you the value should actually beComment -
Pretty simple. If you can stomach the variance, don't hedge (unless the hedge bet is +ev in itself, which don't happen often), long term you will be better off. If you want to sleep better, hedge.Comment -
youre like our resident wise-man Wantit.
Comment -
But your basing that the line should be -106 off your own opinion? Or model? Correct?Comment -
I'm sure I make bets that are -EV but that is not my intentions which is the argument here. I try to make a +EV bet every time I hit the submit button however I do understand that that is not reality and sometimes I make -EV bets. I sure don't do it intentionally though.Comment -
this is the circle everyones talking about. if the E in ev is "expected" then thats what the capper expects (perceived percent likelihood put against the odds)- whether it is based on a model or a good pick or not. this changes for each person and it is based on the individual's perception. you will keep going around in circles forever trying to argue for or against whether someone can detect something that is +evComment -
The part I have bolded is where we disagree (and it is probably better that we agree to disagree).
In this case of hedging you have a 100% probability of winning x
In the case of not hedging you have a W% probability of winning y and an L% of losing z
You and wantit suggest, essentially, that you cannot define/quantify W and L with sufficient accuracy/confidence to justify the risk and if that works for you, who am I to argue?
As food for thought though consider how the books in-play odds come about. These days for tennis pretty much all of them are simply tracking Betfair, adding juice and, I presume adjusting for current exposure.
Those Betfair odds are not derived from hunches. The big traders are turning over millions on single matches with overrounds/juice of less then 1% which they can only do with every game/point/missed first serve being carefully priced based on samples of 10,000s of previous matches.Comment -
It still at the end of the day is up to the bettor to decide if the play is +ev or - ev... a minus 500 play could be + ev if you feel the value should be minus 100.... good luck wager responsibilty.. don't lose your rooster on 2 large of a playComment -
I am not sure if they all follow betfair or not, if they are then I would suggest betfair is also following someone else.
But as long as they are all shading a common line then wha I and he says is true. there is no real 'value' just a comparative one. If the line is 'right' or 'wrong' can only be determined by the outcome. The outcomes themselves wont even be 100% , so determining the accuracy even in a vacuum is impossible. While you can weight it and validate it any number of ways you an still only gauge your play/bet on your findings. It isnt like you assume say a +280 chance, and then offer that price. No you look at the line offered and bet accordingly. If the offer is +320 then you take that. But it could be +160 So do you take the other side at presumably -180/-200 or do you do nothing?
The inconsistency of sporting event results is the great equalizer. If sports have say a margin of error of 10-12% that makes putting math into them a very difficult thing. Because even a team with a 100% 'chance' of beating a team might still lose 10 or 12 out of 100 just based on unknown variables. That is where it gets really theoretical but there are some cases where a team would and should never ever lose to another, but there is always that sports variable that gives the team with no chance a slight chance. It might not be 10% but the closer the teams are in known variables the more that sports margin of error comes into play.Comment -
a good strategy regarding this encompasses the science of predicting an over-reaction. these happen very very often. many live odds ARE derived from hunches- even if its a relatively collective hunch from betfair etc based on different things. their traders have specific arbitrary power to adjust based on factors as they perceive them.
10,000 previous matches does not mean much when taking into account a talented newcomer. ex- Lotsa gamblers here dont know who David Goffin is. i know who he is because hes good for an upset and/or a set Very often.
that highlighted part is incorrect- that is not what we are saying at all. we both like +ev bets a lot. we are saying that guaranteeing money is an entirely different thing. (and if you start with a +ev dog every time, then this is where my loop loops back to your loop ( if a -ev bet doesnt come later- our loops stay in series)) we love +ev wagers but those are gambling. these are something different.
- you may have missed the part of my post where i quoted you and said something about wages and grandmother b-day cards. but i agree that it is better that we agree to disagree here. thanks for the knowledge guys.
*if youre just now coming in- you missed a lot.Last edited by Glitch; 01-20-12, 01:55 PM.Comment -
4lc- today in CBB we have oklahoma sooners +155 and colorado state +190 as extemely +ev dogs.
-i cant guarantee su ml ft wins (though i feel each should win handily on the road today) but i can almost guarantee very favorable live-betting opportunities as a result of trader over-reactions to in-game leads.Comment -
threads like this make me want to become a bookie..easy moneyComment -
oklahoma led 18-11 and was up 3 with 1 minute left but lost in overtime.
colorado state is losing wire to wire. i think i severely underestimated wyoming. have not watched them play and still tonight have not.Comment
