25 team open parlay question

[ebbearsfb1]

So I tried my first serious 25 team parlay open.... anyway I got to play 17 before I lost... I risked 60 and was up to about 5000 before my play lost... now my question is how or when in a parlay like this is the right time to hedge

[Puppy]

did you lose it on VCU?

[ebbearsfb1]

No I had regal barceolna ml first half... lost by 2 kid missed a lay up with seconds left for the push... also does anyone know how long these can be open for?

[FourLengthsClear]

You don't hedge. If you are not comfortable with 5000 being risked on one play/team them cut the initial parlay down to a 10 teamer or 15 teamer.

Hedging just gives juice back to the book.

[ebbearsfb1]

Guess I should of hedged then cause instead I got nothing to show for it rather than atleast a few hundred bucks

[GoodSun]

why didnt you just bet heavy favorites the rest, if you up to 5,000 with 8 spots left???

[Double Bogey]

Instead of doing a 25 team open parlay, just make straight bets letting it ride each time. Then instead of worrying about hedging, just stop when you want

[ebbearsfb1]

why didnt you just bet heavy favorites the rest, if you up to 5,000 with 8 spots left???

heavy favorite lost....

[vyomguy]

i never hedge unless its the last leg...even that I hedge only risk amount.

[Gee]

Don't play 25 team parlays.

The math is against you every step of the way.

[Bengals28]

What was your average odds u took for the first 17 plays?

[beagle25]

By heavy favorite, I think he meant something along the line of a lock like Duke -5000 today.

[subs]

this

You don't hedge. If you are not comfortable with 5000 being risked on one play/team them cut the initial parlay down to a 10 teamer or 15 teamer.

Hedging just gives juice back to the book.

and this

Instead of doing a 25 team open parlay, just make straight bets letting it ride each time. Then instead of worrying about hedging, just stop when you want

[RyanLeafOfBets]

I did a 10 team open parlay the other day, got to 8 and the Indiana lost to Minnesota. Sigh.

[p19101]

You do these on 5 dimes? I'm not a parlay player, but I could see myself doing one of those for pure fun

[LT Profits]

Instead of doing a 25 team open parlay, just make straight bets letting it ride each time. Then instead of worrying about hedging, just stop when you want

Limits. You can circumvent straight bet limit at latter stages of open parlay.

[kfranz31]

guaranteed money is the only kind of money you can spend.....you should atlest been trying to get your original wager back depending on the bets

[Cicima6709]

Instead of doing a 25 team open parlay, just make straight bets letting it ride each time. Then instead of worrying about hedging, just stop when you want

Because then he would realize he is betting thousands of dollars on a -1000 or w.e it is, and he'll realize how silly going all in on 25 teams (or doing 25 team parlays) is.

[ebbearsfb1]

How is doing a 25 team parlay silly? And when did I say I went all in? Like lt said you begin to hit limit issues if you kept doubling

[bobbydrake]

So I tried my first serious 25 team parlay open.... anyway I got to play 17 before I lost... I risked 60 and was up to about 5000 before my play lost... now my question is how or when in a parlay like this is the right time to hedge

If I'm understanding your lingo correctly, a 25 team parlay OPEN is when you parlay your winnings after a win on a single bet. Is that right? If it is, I don't think there is a way to hedge an independent play. A hedge is an investment position intended to offset potential losses that may be incurred by a companion investment. In your example there is no companion investment.

Probably... during that last game, you can predict you'll lose the bet before the half. Then maybe you can hedge with the second half of the game. But at 5000, don't know if the casino you're playing at will accept a 5000 wager on a half. Unless you're considered a big player the sky's the limit.

Just for fun. There is a promotion at all Station Casinos in Las Vegas during football season where you can win $1,000,000 for $5 on a 20 team parlay. Lets say you've just won 15 games and need 5 more games to win a cool million. I would try to get my initial investment back and use martingale. (this is assuming that all bets are at -110 with a spread, adjust if your bets are money line) For my 1st bet and the 16th game on the parlay card, (1) $5.50. Next games, (2) $13.20, (3) $27.50, (4) $53.30. All together you've just spent $104.50 to win back you're investment or have a chance to win a million. For you're final bet you'll be making the biggest hedge you'll ever make. Play the casino limit. Bet $5,500 to win $4895.50 or $994,395.50

[ehp6737]

why didnt you just bet heavy favorites the rest, if you up to 5,000 with 8 spots left???

heavy favorite lost....

By heavy favorite I think he meant Ohio St versus West Bum-a-Fuk -10000.

While a -660 (which I believe is what your Barcelona 1H play was) is normally considered a heavy favorite in my book, it's not when you're in the situation that you were.

Secondly, why in the world would you go with a 1H bet? Why not full game? Any shitty team can run with a good team for a half before the cream rises to the top. A halftime play in any sport in this situation is way too risky to try and move your parlay along when your at the stage you were. You should have taken them full game, which they did end up coming back and winning.

But to answer your OP, your closest option to a hedge is to bet the largest favs you can find, preferably over -10000 or more. Plays like Federer in the opening round of a tournament or Duke against Miss Valley St and stuff like that where you have a 99.9% chance of winning.

[ebbearsfb1]

Thanks eph... yeah learned the hard way.. know for the future will open another one to play with soon

[ehp6737]

Thanks eph... yeah learned the hard way.. know for the future will open another one to play with soon

Ya that sucks bro. That was a great thing you had going. And just to clarify, I somewhat misspoke in my earlier post. You could've hedged by betting all -10000 or greater the last 8 games and betting the other side for around $75 each time. Betting those high chalks would've only bumped your parlay a hundred or 2 so you would've cashed out at around $5200 minus $75 coverage x 8 games ($600) = $4600. If you were betting -10000 favs the underdog would've been around +6000 or so (these are real loose numbers, but just using as an example) $75 x +6000 = $4500 straight bet win in the event that one of the underdogs actually won and blew up your parlay. So in either outcome you would've stood to walk away with about 90%-92% of your existing parlay value of $5000.

[ebbearsfb1]

Ya that sucks bro. That was a great thing you had going. And just to clarify, I somewhat misspoke in my earlier post. You could've hedged by betting all -10000 or greater the last 8 games and betting the other side for around $75 each time. Betting those high chalks would've only bumped your parlay a hundred or 2 so you would've cashed out at around $5200 minus $75 coverage x 8 games ($600) = $4600. If you were betting -10000 favs the underdog would've been around +6000 or so (these are real loose numbers, but just using as an example) $75 x +6000 = $4500 straight bet win in the event that one of the underdogs actually won and blew up your parlay. So in either outcome you would've stood to walk away with about 90%-92% of your existing parlay value of $5000.

thank you, thats i figured,, and should of done... will start a new one tomorrow and try to do it through out the week...


cause i figured even if you hedge those big plays .. at worse you walk away with 3000 or 4000 ... shoulda woulda coulda... gotta look at as only a 60 dollar lose...

lot of good info from ehp

[subs]

By heavy favorite I think he meant Ohio St versus West Bum-a-Fuk -10000.

While a -660 (which I believe is what your Barcelona 1H play was) is normally considered a heavy favorite in my book, it's not when you're in the situation that you were.

Secondly, why in the world would you go with a 1H bet? Why not full game? Any shitty team can run with a good team for a half before the cream rises to the top. A halftime play in any sport in this situation is way too risky to try and move your parlay along when your at the stage you were. You should have taken them full game, which they did end up coming back and winning.

But to answer your OP, your closest option to a hedge is to bet the largest favs you can find, preferably over -10000 or more. Plays like Federer in the opening round of a tournament or Duke against Miss Valley St and stuff like that where you have a 99.9% chance of winning.

right now there r like 5 or 6 bookies that will give u massive bonuses, like 40% extra on 20 leg parlay wins. because they can and still make serious loot!

this strategy has been thought of over and over and is 1 of the quickest ways of losing money. cos a -1000 play does not have a 99.9% chance of cashing. that is the huge hole in this... if it had there would be no line offered. -1000 plays r usually the worst plays because people fail to grasp this so the bookies cheat a little to make more money. DUC?

the problem with these plays is that they r the most -EV plays there r. so u compound ur -EV.

if the play in itself is not a good play (ie federer in the 1st round) then parlaying it with another poor play isn't going to make it a good play.

please reconsider, i hate to see people getting massacred by the bookies.

[Big Bear]

once you get up the amount you want to cash out with bet on ML on college baketball teams favored by 20 or more if they are playing at home and youfeel you can trust them.

[Big Bear]

really you cant exactly hedge until you are down to just 1 remaining leg of your parlay

[ehp6737]

By heavy favorite I think he meant Ohio St versus West Bum-a-Fuk -10000.

While a -660 (which I believe is what your Barcelona 1H play was) is normally considered a heavy favorite in my book, it's not when you're in the situation that you were.

Secondly, why in the world would you go with a 1H bet? Why not full game? Any shitty team can run with a good team for a half before the cream rises to the top. A halftime play in any sport in this situation is way too risky to try and move your parlay along when your at the stage you were. You should have taken them full game, which they did end up coming back and winning.

But to answer your OP, your closest option to a hedge is to bet the largest favs you can find, preferably over -10000 or more. Plays like Federer in the opening round of a tournament or Duke against Miss Valley St and stuff like that where you have a 99.9% chance of winning.

right now there r like 5 or 6 bookies that will give u massive bonuses, like 40% extra on 20 leg parlay wins. because they can and still make serious loot!

this strategy has been thought of over and over and is 1 of the quickest ways of losing money. cos a -1000 play does not have a 99.9% chance of cashing. that is the huge hole in this... if it had there would be no line offered. -1000 plays r usually the worst plays because people fail to grasp this so the bookies cheat a little to make more money. DUC?

the problem with these plays is that they r the most -EV plays there r. so u compound ur -EV.

if the play in itself is not a good play (ie federer in the 1st round) then parlaying it with another poor play isn't going to make it a good play.

please reconsider, i hate to see people getting massacred by the bookies.

True, a -1000 play doesnt have a 99.9% chance of winning. The problem is I never said they did. If you actually take the time to look at what I wrote I said -10000 or greater play. Also, my subsequent post addresses to OP what to do to cover against the slight possibility a massive fav would lose.

Now while you are accurate in your other statements, the OP was just looking to cashout with as much of his could at that point. I dont think he really cared about the value of each line, but rather how he can cover himself and cash out as much of his parlay's value that he could with 8 games to go.

[subs]

Dude u r totally right, u answered the OP in a good way.

I was just trying to say that these 25 team parlays r terrible, not saying ur post was at all. i guess i didn't make that clear, my fault. u actually give some good advice.

we both know parlaying a bunch of overwhelming favs and then hedging the last 8 is not a good strategy, i was shocked that after getting great advice from 4LC and double bogey that OP did not get it and wants to repeat.

whatever it is his money...

GL

[ebbearsfb1]

Dude u r totally right, u answered the OP in a good way. I was just trying to say that these 25 team parlays r terrible, not saying ur post was at all. i guess i didn't make that clear, my fault. u actually give some good advice. we both know parlaying a bunch of overwhelming favs and then hedging the last 8 is not a good strategy, i was shocked that after getting great advice from 4LC and double bogey that OP did not get it and wants to repeat. whatever it is his money... GL

how are they terrible if you hit one and turn 10 bucks in 1k? or whatever the amount its open so you can do it for as long as you like. a 25 team parlay.. so alll the plays your picking arent rushed and won be - ev .. even though the whole -ev is bs.. as what is - ev to me can be + ev to you and so on


and like we say with double bogey, if your playing a team -900 or whatever and keep doubling you will hit limit issues as lt said...

if you doing it with 50 bucks... for a team that is -2000... it would roll over to like 52 dollars ..
so that wasnt really great advice, and advice of not doing them isnt advice either to my question.. like i said ehp was the one who answered it


so i agree with ehp... and what he said so it make senses to hedge the last 8 as most of the parlay wasnt over whelming favorites...



but you could do ever big favorite at the end like he said ... and still make money rather than if a big favorites loses walking away with nothing

[ebbearsfb1]

really you cant exactly hedge until you are down to just 1 remaining leg of your parlay

well thats how your able to hedge...

say you do 100 dollar parlay you have it up to 10 k....


you can take all minus 10000 or better plays... if they all win then you win lets say 10.5 k..

but if you hedge each at say + 6000...

if there is a huge upset your covered and still walk away with with over 5k rather than your thumb up your butt

[FourLengthsClear]

how are they terrible if you hit one and turn 10 bucks in 1k? or whatever the amount its open so you can do it for as long as you like. a 25 team parlay.. so alll the plays your picking arent rushed and won be - ev .. even though the whole -ev is bs.. as what is - ev to me can be + ev to you and so on


and like we say with double bogey, if your playing a team -900 or whatever and keep doubling you will hit limit issues as lt said...

if you doing it with 50 bucks... for a team that is -2000... it would roll over to like 52 dollars ..
so that wasnt really great advice, and advice of not doing them isnt advice either to my question.. like i said ehp was the one who answered it


so i agree with ehp... and what he said so it make senses to hedge the last 8 as most of the parlay wasnt over whelming favorites...



but you could do ever big favorite at the end like he said ... and still make money rather than if a big favorites loses walking away with nothing

Every leg that you hedge will cost you around 2.4% of the parlays previous value.
Going into these things with the INTENTION of hedging is crazy.

If you have $5000 after 17 legs and the most you can expect to achieve after 25 legs is USD 4100 doesn't it make more sense to play a parlay with a lower number of legs and not even think of hedging?

EHP was advising you you could have done last time to ensure a return, he certainly was not suggesting that you do the same thing again.

[Sirus73]

Parlays = lotto.

[ebbearsfb1]

Well I would rather that 4100 then nothing.... and sirus not if you do open parlays.. ehp answered my question no more need for me to respond.. thanks

[baskets]

anybody done a side-by-side open parlay?

start with 2 parlays at $50 each.... bet the same thing for the first 15 games.... then you have a win-win situation

ex: value is 16,000 after 15 games. on last leg you go -800 fave or +600 dog.... taking both sides. the fave on one open parlay... and the dog on the other.... so you end up with 18,000 or 96,000

5dimes wouldn't have a problem with this, right?