Help me with gain an edge with a local book?

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  • broker651
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-22-10
    • 166

    #1
    Help me with gain an edge with a local book?
    OK, reading this forum regularly has taught me that the cappers that do well are looking for an edge with lines, for instance playing at one online book or another depending on who's more favorable, watching line movement etc. It got me to thinking about the local who I use in addition to online books and what I could maybe do to get an edge with him watching how he operates.

    I assume everyones locals have different rules as to how they operate, but this is what my guy does that stands out to me and where I think I can get a small edge.

    A) He uses America's line for NBA and College hoops. What I mean is, whatever is published in our local paper that day is the line we get for hoops. America's line is a syndicated line in a lot of daily newspapers, but it's set the day before in order for it to get to print.
    My thinking is that there's a way to take advantage of the age of that line.

    B) Total plays are only good through regulation play on football. Overtime does not count for totals on football plays unlike online books. So this is a difference I get with him as well, although unrelated to the hoops thing above.

    Looking for some of the smart folks here to help me see if there's a way I can use these two things in future plays with the local to my advantage.

    Thanks in advance.
  • DrStale
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-07-08
    • 9692

    #2
    A) Seems pretty easy. Check the line he uses, then check the line online (5dimes, Pinnacle, etc.) If the line is off (i.e. Packers are -10 with local and -12 on 5dimes) take the Packers.

    B) Pretty much meaningless as you can't really predict overtime.
    Originally posted by Dark Horse
    If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
    Comment
    • dredmahawkus
      SBR MVP
      • 12-26-09
      • 1803

      #3
      you should be making a fortune if he doesnt move his lines! just bet everything you get a point advantage or more on.....say 100 a game...2 points 200 ect.....you would make so much!!!
      Comment
      • FourLengthsClear
        SBR MVP
        • 12-29-10
        • 3808

        #4
        Play everything on which there is a one point (or more) differential between the current Pinny line and what your local offers.
        The bigger the differential, the more you should risk - something like this:

        1 point - 0.5 units
        1.5 points - 1 unit
        2 points - 1.5 units
        etc etc.
        Comment
        • sapidoc
          SBR MVP
          • 03-25-10
          • 1273

          #5
          You will bust him. Too easy.
          Comment
          • Dutchie
            Restricted User
            • 12-15-11
            • 722

            #6
            yeah, just take a long term approach and play the lines that are in your favor a few points like the line changed from +7 lions to +5 lions.... take the +7.it may not give immediate gains, but over time you'll either do VERY well, or the bookie will change his rules
            Comment
            • dj_destroyer
              SBR MVP
              • 07-28-10
              • 3856

              #7
              These guys saying it's so easy, if its a 1 point difference, bet the house, blah blah blah. They don't know shit.

              If you have two different markets, you have to exploit the weaker one, yes. But you have to do it in a specific manner, determining expected value and maximizing potential growth. To do this, you need to read up on EV theory and Kelly Criterion. This will give you the best results.

              You won't always win, but when you do, you'll get paid out more than you should, and come out ahead in the long run.

              Also, with your second point, never take an OVER ever. The books factor in a couple points to offset the small chance that it goes to overtime. This is good though as the public generally likes the OVER, so you should likewise generally avoid it.

              I make most of my money investing in my provincial sports offerings... because they are static and weak as well.

              Good luck.
              Comment
              • minet123
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-17-07
                • 10280

                #8
                1)get a line services-sports options is the best imo
                2)Still cap the games as you normal would
                3)When you see he is way off in your favor-CRUSH HIM
                and every now and than
                go to service play area look for RAS Straight plays(no totals)
                and bury him where he has not moved
                Comment
                • broker651
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-22-10
                  • 166

                  #9
                  Thanks for the input guys. Feel free to comment further. Wanna whale on this advantage of a static line from him over time.

                  So what I see tonight is this. America's line for NBA and College hoops is...

                  Hawks 3 BOBCATS (Pinny has this at Atlanta -1.5) That's a 1.5 move
                  76ERS 81/2 Pistons (Pinny has this at -10) That's another 1.5
                  RAPTORS 5 Nets (-6 at Pinny 1 point move)
                  Knicks 61/2 WIZARDS (6 at pinny)
                  CELTICS 6 Pacers (no move)
                  MAGIC 1 Bulls (no move)
                  THUNDER 9 Rockets (Pinny 8.5)
                  T’WOLVES 71/2 Cavaliers (Pinny 7)
                  Nuggets 41/2 HORNETS (pinny 6 - 1.5 move)
                  JAZZ 1 Grizzlies (no move)
                  Blazers 2 SUNS (2.5 at pinny)
                  LAKERS 11 Warriors 1.5 at pinny)

                  College Basketball
                  Favorite Points Underdog

                  DETROIT 6 Valparaiso (pinny 5)
                  Butler 2 WRIGHT ST (pinny 3)


                  So from what I'm seeing there are 5 games that match the more than one point differential.
                  Both listed college games (detroit and butler) and
                  the hawks, the sixers and the nuggets game... Advice for tonight?

                  Thanks. bol all.




                  Comment
                  • Gee
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-08-10
                    • 4547

                    #10
                    lol.

                    How is this guy in business? Do bookies like this really operate. I want some.

                    This will not last long though.

                    I don't actually like a lot on the card today. Not much for you to pick off.
                    Comment
                    • FourLengthsClear
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-29-10
                      • 3808

                      #11
                      Originally posted by dj_destroyer
                      These guys saying it's so easy, if its a 1 point difference, bet the house, blah blah blah. They don't know shit.

                      If you have two different markets, you have to exploit the weaker one, yes. But you have to do it in a specific manner, determining expected value and maximizing potential growth. To do this, you need to read up on EV theory and Kelly Criterion. This will give you the best results.


                      You won't always win, but when you do, you'll get paid out more than you should, and come out ahead in the long run.

                      Also, with your second point, never take an OVER ever. The books factor in a couple points to offset the small chance that it goes to overtime. This is good though as the public generally likes the OVER, so you should likewise generally avoid it.

                      I make most of my money investing in my provincial sports offerings... because they are static and weak as well.

                      Good luck.
                      The average handicapper has no idea how to independently calculate/establish a fair line and thus quantify an edge in order to be able to utilise Kelly.

                      In relatively big and efficient markets like NBA (and NCAAB to a lesser extent) the Pinny line is THE benchmark for US sports. Using that as the fair line is the way to go for 90%+ of people.
                      Comment
                      • broker651
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 10-22-10
                        • 166

                        #12
                        Well, just for fun I guess I'm going to grab the nuggets for a unit and the sixers for a unit. (That's 100 each) and see what happens. This keeps working for me I'll keep posting the results. That's two games where I get a 1.5 point differential in my favor for tonight and essentially get to play the favorite on both games at where the lines opened.
                        Really would appreciate any further comments.
                        Comment
                        • minet123
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-17-07
                          • 10280

                          #13
                          Originally posted by broker651
                          Well, just for fun I guess I'm going to grab the nuggets for a unit and the sixers for a unit. (That's 100 each) and see what happens. This keeps working for me I'll keep posting the results. That's two games where I get a 1.5 point differential in my favor for tonight and essentially get to play the favorite on both games at where the lines opened.
                          Really would appreciate any further comments.
                          You should be good with the Sixers
                          Blindly following off numbers will result in the same thing as blindly tailing steam
                          it will BURY you
                          Cap the games
                          look for spots where he is clearly off
                          and don't get greedy because he will ether cut you off or kick you up and i doubt he will kick you up because of the lines he is hanging
                          Comment
                          • dj_destroyer
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-28-10
                            • 3856

                            #14
                            Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                            The average handicapper has no idea how to independently calculate/establish a fair line and thus quantify an edge in order to be able to utilise Kelly.

                            In relatively big and efficient markets like NBA (and NCAAB to a lesser extent) the Pinny line is THE benchmark for US sports. Using that as the fair line is the way to go for 90%+ of people.
                            Sorry. You miss understood. I agree that he should use Pinny's fair line and compared to his local's lines and use Kelly to establish wagers.

                            You just can't wing it though, you have to systematically exploit.
                            Comment
                            • broker651
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 10-22-10
                              • 166

                              #15
                              DJD you're absolutely right about winging it, that's why I'm asking for the advice.
                              Gotta figure that I can crush this on the right games though.
                              He's bringing a knife to a gunfight using the lines the way he does.
                              Comment
                              • FourLengthsClear
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-29-10
                                • 3808

                                #16
                                Originally posted by broker651
                                Well, just for fun I guess I'm going to grab the nuggets for a unit and the sixers for a unit. (That's 100 each) and see what happens. This keeps working for me I'll keep posting the results. That's two games where I get a 1.5 point differential in my favor for tonight and essentially get to play the favorite on both games at where the lines opened.
                                Really would appreciate any further comments.
                                It really depends on how aggressively you want to go after it. If you assume that the Pinnacle line represents true probabilities then Kelly criterion would suggest the following, approximate, amounts be risked (expressed as a percentage of your total bankroll) on the basis that you local offers -110. These figures are for NBA sides but assume one bet at a time.

                                1 point - 3.4%
                                1.5 points - 6.5%
                                2 points - 9.7%
                                2.5 points - 12.8%

                                I would suggest you are a fair bit more conservative than this, initially.
                                Comment
                                • broker651
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 10-22-10
                                  • 166

                                  #17
                                  Thanks BTW to everyone who chimed in here so far. Thought this might interest some of you enough to post a little on it.
                                  Comment
                                  • thetrinity
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-25-11
                                    • 22430

                                    #18
                                    point a seems pretty easy to explain IMO. point b i would try and exploit unders a bit more in ncaa, not really much u can do.
                                    Comment
                                    • dj_destroyer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-28-10
                                      • 3856

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                      It really depends on how aggressively you want to go after it. If you assume that the Pinnacle line represents true probabilities then Kelly criterion would suggest the following, approximate, amounts be risked (expressed as a percentage of your total bankroll) on the basis that you local offers -110. These figures are for NBA sides but assume one bet at a time.

                                      1 point - 3.4%
                                      1.5 points - 6.5%
                                      2 points - 9.7%
                                      2.5 points - 12.8%

                                      I would suggest you are a fair bit more conservative than this, initially.
                                      ^This^

                                      Except, like FLC suggests, you should go more conservative. Using full Kelly is quite the ride and is often too volatile for most people. I like 3/4 Kelly, so just multiply those percentages by .75 and you'll have a good wager amount (of your overall bankroll).
                                      Comment
                                      • broker651
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 10-22-10
                                        • 166

                                        #20
                                        Thanks a ton for the input guys. BTW: Ark -9 and the over 65 tonight. Just sayin... bol to all.
                                        Comment
                                        • wantitall4moi
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-17-10
                                          • 3063

                                          #21
                                          ahh the Pinny Lean, Pinny lean is off on probably 80% of the games anyone can bet anywhere else, so why arent people breaking those places? Because the Pinny lean is make believe.

                                          I have watched lines since last April (and 8 years before that)and the pinny lean isnt any more relevant now than it ever has been, people just convince themselves it exists.

                                          Seriously other places are off Pinnacle by a full point a lot, and with enough vig so that guys wh think they can calculate it would maybe even equal a 1.5 pt difference.

                                          While Pinny might be slightly more efficient, there is no way to tell why they have a number where they do. Thats where peopel get in trouble. If they get slammed one way they will ALWAYS entice people to buy back with them. ALWAYS. No ifs ands or buts about it. So those lines right there are 'fake' anyway since they are manufactured to entice people to bet. So they are in no way 'fair' in terms of probability, but are fair in Pinnies mind in terms of value for people looking to buy back a game.
                                          Comment
                                          • k13
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 07-16-10
                                            • 18104

                                            #22
                                            How many times did a "bad" line matter in the NFL this year?
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              This thread is useless without your book's phone number. But seriously, does your guy take CBB Totals? If so, you can get HUMONGOUS edges.
                                              Comment
                                              • FourLengthsClear
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-29-10
                                                • 3808

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by wantitall4moi
                                                ahh the Pinny Lean, Pinny lean is off on probably 80% of the games anyone can bet anywhere else, so why arent people breaking those places? Because the Pinny lean is make believe.

                                                I have watched lines since last April (and 8 years before that)and the pinny lean isnt any more relevant now than it ever has been, people just convince themselves it exists.

                                                Seriously other places are off Pinnacle by a full point a lot, and with enough vig so that guys wh think they can calculate it would maybe even equal a 1.5 pt difference.

                                                While Pinny might be slightly more efficient, there is no way to tell why they have a number where they do. Thats where peopel get in trouble. If they get slammed one way they will ALWAYS entice people to buy back with them. ALWAYS. No ifs ands or buts about it. So those lines right there are 'fake' anyway since they are manufactured to entice people to bet. So they are in no way 'fair' in terms of probability, but are fair in Pinnies mind in terms of value for people looking to buy back a game.
                                                What? No-one is even remotely talking about the "Pinny lean".

                                                We are talking about a way to exploit a local who offers lines based America's line from the previous evening.

                                                You could, alternatively, use a basket of books as being more representative of the fair line or you could handicap/model the matches independently (not advisable for 90%+ of bettors). There are several solid reasons to use Pinny as the proxy for the market and if you can't see that after "watching" lines for 8+ years then you haven't been watching very closely.
                                                Comment
                                                • str
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                  • 11787

                                                  #25
                                                  One other thing that you should be sure and do.

                                                  Have a doctor on standby and tell your man that if at any time he starts to feel ill, please call you right away.

                                                  Don't let anything happen to this guy.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • wantitall4moi
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-17-10
                                                    • 3063

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by k13
                                                    How many times did a "bad" line matter in the NFL this year?
                                                    A lot of answers to this actually. But for basic grading....

                                                    256 games

                                                    Sides Getting the 'best' number available would have given you a record of 136-119-1 (rare to have a push but there was one even with the best number)

                                                    Sides getting the 'average' number 124-123-9

                                                    Sides getting the 'worst' number 122-127-7,

                                                    So 14 more winners difference between best and worst. About a 5.5% chance of having a loser instead of a winner, adding in pushes you had 7.8% difference. Those are right around the average.

                                                    On totals the results were


                                                    256 games

                                                    Best number to the OVER 133-123

                                                    Ave number 124-127-5

                                                    Worst number 122-132-3

                                                    So not nearly the difference in totals, but that is also close to the norm. Right around 3% is the long term average. This year was 4.3%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dj_destroyer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-28-10
                                                      • 3856

                                                      #27
                                                      Agreed with FLC (sharp cat), if you don't think Pinny is the most efficient then:

                                                      a) you're an idiot
                                                      b) you could use an average of a bunch of books
                                                      Comment
                                                      • wantitall4moi
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-17-10
                                                        • 3063

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                                        What? No-one is even remotely talking about the "Pinny lean".

                                                        We are talking about a way to exploit a local who offers lines based America's line from the previous evening.

                                                        You could, alternatively, use a basket of books as being more representative of the fair line or you could handicap/model the matches independently (not advisable for 90%+ of bettors). There are several solid reasons to use Pinny as the proxy for the market and if you can't see that after "watching" lines for 8+ years then you haven't been watching very closely.
                                                        looking at Pinny as a benchmark is reversing their lean. If youre using the Pinnacle line as you state then you either think it is 'fair' or it is 'sharp'. So when people say use Pinnacle then that automatically assumes you are judging them as the authority for one reason or another.

                                                        Basically Pinnacle is the Wal mart of the offshore books. If they sell Charmin TP for 12.99 for 24 rolls then you can assume that is the best price. is it a 'fair' price? Maybe, maybe not. Doesnt mean K mart isnt having a sale and offering it for 12.49 for 24 rolls. Or maybe you have a Target card and they are selling it for 13.49 but you get 15% credit. Wal mart will keep that constant price, while others will go up and down according to sales or specials or promotions. So people will then just naturally assume the 'fair' price is 12.99. When in fact it is only fair to Wal mart. So while you can compare and contrast prices you can in no way try and determine over all value via that comparison.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • k13
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 07-16-10
                                                          • 18104

                                                          #29
                                                          Is that using Pinnacle?

                                                          I've noticed there are a lot more "pushes" than losers with bad numbers.

                                                          I'll check my numbers tomorrow, seemed like it was closer to 12 than 14 but not 100% sure right now
                                                          Comment
                                                          • wantitall4moi
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-17-10
                                                            • 3063

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by k13
                                                            Is that using Pinnacle?

                                                            I've noticed there are a lot more "pushes" than losers with bad numbers.

                                                            I'll check my numbers tomorrow, seemed like it was closer to 12 than 14 but not 100% sure right now
                                                            Those are from my generic DB that tracks all line moves at about 14 books. It doesnt take vig into account on that one so -3 -130 is the same as -3 +110 in its eyes. It just looks at the point spreads. The "average" results are basically for closers at the most books. Not using the average line and grading it that way.

                                                            EDIT: "best" is the best number ever available that I could find at any book at any time during the week. Worst is the same worst number at any book anywhere at any time during the week.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FourLengthsClear
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-29-10
                                                              • 3808

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by wantitall4moi
                                                              looking at Pinny as a benchmark is reversing their lean. If youre using the Pinnacle line as you state then you either think it is 'fair' or it is 'sharp'. So when people say use Pinnacle then that automatically assumes you are judging them as the authority for one reason or another.

                                                              Basically Pinnacle is the Wal mart of the offshore books. If they sell Charmin TP for 12.99 for 24 rolls then you can assume that is the best price. is it a 'fair' price? Maybe, maybe not. Doesnt mean K mart isnt having a sale and offering it for 12.49 for 24 rolls. Or maybe you have a Target card and they are selling it for 13.49 but you get 15% credit. Wal mart will keep that constant price, while others will go up and down according to sales or specials or promotions. So people will then just naturally assume the 'fair' price is 12.99. When in fact it is only fair to Wal mart. So while you can compare and contrast prices you can in no way try and determine over all value via that comparison.
                                                              1) Pinny have a tangible 'lean' on very few games as a proportion of all games played and when they do it is generally in the order of 7 cents (less for NCAAB), whereby they are offering worse odds than the vanilla books who track them on the side they are leaning towards. Given that the OP is looking to bet matchups where the line has already moved significantly it would follow that you are leaning with Pinny against the static line offered by his local.

                                                              2) I am not assuming that Pinny is the 'authority', I have reems of data to show that their closers are the best single widely available predictor for US sports. Judging by how quickly US facing books shadow a Pinny line move, they have that data too. Does that mean that Pinny lines represent coin-flip like efficiency? Of course not, they never will and never can.

                                                              Your WalMart/KMart/Charmin analogy is lost on me in the context of what is being discussed.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • pokernut9999
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 07-25-07
                                                                • 12757

                                                                #32
                                                                Any bookie using lines out of the paper will not have much of a bankroll
                                                                Comment
                                                                • broker651
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-22-10
                                                                  • 166

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Nuggets - W
                                                                  Sixers - W

                                                                  The take my book's money system TMBM(tm) is 2-0 heh

                                                                  Both games covered America's line and also the closing lines at most books.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • big joe 1212
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 06-01-08
                                                                    • 19380

                                                                    #34
                                                                    couldn't figure out the edge yourself?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • broker651
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 10-22-10
                                                                      • 166

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Well, I guess I did. I mean I identified his weakness and invited some discussion about it. Nothing wrong with that pal.
                                                                      Hope you won tonight on something.
                                                                      Comment
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