Help me with gain an edge with a local book?

[dj_destroyer]

1) Pinny have a tangible 'lean' on very few games as a proportion of all games played and when they do it is generally in the order of 7 cents (less for NCAAB), whereby they are offering worse odds than the vanilla books who track them on the side they are leaning towards. Given that the OP is looking to bet matchups where the line has already moved significantly it would follow that you are leaning with Pinny against the static line offered by his local.

2) I am not assuming that Pinny is the 'authority', I have reems of data to show that their closers are the best single widely available predictor for US sports. Judging by how quickly US facing books shadow a Pinny line move, they have that data too. Does that mean that Pinny lines represent coin-flip like efficiency? Of course not, they never will and never can.

Your WalMart/KMart/Charmin analogy is lost on me in the context of what is being discussed.

Who is this guy? Never fukking heard of ya pal. <-- Don't think I've ever said that in a good way.

[makaveli66]

SBR, Why??????

[makaveli66]

OKAAA! I'm Sure You'll Delete This!

[makaveli66]

[paco]

looking at Pinny as a benchmark is reversing their lean. If youre using the Pinnacle line as you state then you either think it is 'fair' or it is 'sharp'. So when people say use Pinnacle then that automatically assumes you are judging them as the authority for one reason or another.

Basically Pinnacle is the Wal mart of the offshore books. If they sell Charmin TP for 12.99 for 24 rolls then you can assume that is the best price. is it a 'fair' price? Maybe, maybe not. Doesnt mean K mart isnt having a sale and offering it for 12.49 for 24 rolls. Or maybe you have a Target card and they are selling it for 13.49 but you get 15% credit. Wal mart will keep that constant price, while others will go up and down according to sales or specials or promotions. So people will then just naturally assume the 'fair' price is 12.99. When in fact it is only fair to Wal mart. So while you can compare and contrast prices you can in no way try and determine over all value via that comparison.

I would go to family dollar and get the 24 roll for $6.99

[The Kraken]

DJ you're a newb, pal. Go back to gaga sing alongs and beating off to bieber. I've been here since Chrismtas of last year and know of FLC and his greatness.

[LT Profits]

Who is this guy? Never fukking heard of ya pal. <-- Don't think I've ever said that in a good way.

Venture into the Think Tank more often.

[wantitall4moi]

1) Pinny have a tangible 'lean' on very few games as a proportion of all games played and when they do it is generally in the order of 7 cents (less for NCAAB), whereby they are offering worse odds than the vanilla books who track them on the side they are leaning towards. Given that the OP is looking to bet matchups where the line has already moved significantly it would follow that you are leaning with Pinny against the static line offered by his local.

2) I am not assuming that Pinny is the 'authority', I have reems of data to show that their closers are the best single widely available predictor for US sports. Judging by how quickly US facing books shadow a Pinny line move, they have that data too. Does that mean that Pinny lines represent coin-flip like efficiency? Of course not, they never will and never can.

Your WalMart/KMart/Charmin analogy is lost on me in the context of what is being discussed.

You are still using Pinnacle moves as a barometer. I have about 40,000 games worth of lines tracking Pinnacle for almost 9 full seasons in all the major sports. There isnt anything that shows me the moves they make represent a significant edge. People that try to track this stuff dont even track it correctly anyway . They look at the generics and move on, such as Pinny opened -4 on a game it closed -5.5 that favorite won by 20. They call that a "correct' line move. What they dont see or dont notice is that the line opened -4 -107, moved to -3.5 -115 after about 4 straight days of betting then as touts and syndicates and steam started betting, the line made a flash move to the other side, then continued to take action from people chasing that move and moved way more than it should have.

You cant simply look at openers versus closers and think you can figure it out. Nor can you really look at anything and figure it out for that matter. Because there is no way to tell which moves were significant. As in Pinny is a representative of the most efficient line there is. It might be, but there isnt anything that shows it. They really only care about themselves and balancing off their action to the best of their ability.

Also since they stopped taking bets from the US their validity is very questionable. I am sure their model is still sound I am also sure they take a fair amount of money from Americans through agents or third parties, but still no where near the volume they used to. It also cannot be assumed that because of this their action is 'sharper'. Some people might but it would be speculation at best, like most of this is.

This is all just more make you feel good about a bet stuff. That is it. I could list every game and every line move at Pinnacle in major sports and show you guys what the results are but it wouldnt matter because people believe what they want and what they think they have learned.

Last point, since most books, according to you, shadow or semi clone Pinnacle lines and moves. Then how can you begin to try and compare and contrast any data you think you have as it relates to Pinnacle versus book X,Y,Z? If Pinny moves, they all move. So Pinny is self fulfilling its own move by comparison. If Pinny moved and other books didnt move (as they used to more often back a few years ago) you have a much clearer picture of who is 'right' and who is 'wrong' in terms of moves. But it also isnt even that cut and dry because Pinnalce only cares about Pinnacle.

I have said it myself and done it, they will put up lines that make absolutely zero sense in regards to the 'market' everyone is in love with. The sole purpose for doing this is to simply get some quick and dirty money in on that side to balance them off some. it also is a great tool for them when people start looking at these rogue line moves and try to figure them out. Because most people, as this thread shows abundantly, jump to all sorts of conclusions. When all it is is a simple matter of book keeping.

[FourLengthsClear]

You are still using Pinnacle moves as a barometer. I have about 40,000 games worth of lines tracking Pinnacle for almost 9 full seasons in all the major sports. There isnt anything that shows me the moves they make represent a significant edge. People that try to track this stuff dont even track it correctly anyway . They look at the generics and move on, such as Pinny opened -4 on a game it closed -5.5 that favorite won by 20. They call that a "correct' line move. What they dont see or dont notice is that the line opened -4 -107, moved to -3.5 -115 after about 4 straight days of betting then as touts and syndicates and steam started betting, the line made a flash move to the other side, then continued to take action from people chasing that move and moved way more than it should have.

You cant simply look at openers versus closers and think you can figure it out. Nor can you really look at anything and figure it out for that matter. Because there is no way to tell which moves were significant. As in Pinny is a representative of the most efficient line there is. It might be, but there isnt anything that shows it. They really only care about themselves and balancing off their action to the best of their ability.

Also since they stopped taking bets from the US their validity is very questionable. I am sure their model is still sound I am also sure they take a fair amount of money from Americans through agents or third parties, but still no where near the volume they used to. It also cannot be assumed that because of this their action is 'sharper'. Some people might but it would be speculation at best, like most of this is.

This is all just more make you feel good about a bet stuff. That is it. I could list every game and every line move at Pinnacle in major sports and show you guys what the results are but it wouldnt matter because people believe what they want and what they think they have learned.

Last point, since most books, according to you, shadow or semi clone Pinnacle lines and moves. Then how can you begin to try and compare and contrast any data you think you have as it relates to Pinnacle versus book X,Y,Z? If Pinny moves, they all move. So Pinny is self fulfilling its own move by comparison. If Pinny moved and other books didnt move (as they used to more often back a few years ago) you have a much clearer picture of who is 'right' and who is 'wrong' in terms of moves. But it also isnt even that cut and dry because Pinnalce only cares about Pinnacle.

I have said it myself and done it, they will put up lines that make absolutely zero sense in regards to the 'market' everyone is in love with. The sole purpose for doing this is to simply get some quick and dirty money in on that side to balance them off some. it also is a great tool for them when people start looking at these rogue line moves and try to figure them out. Because most people, as this thread shows abundantly, jump to all sorts of conclusions. When all it is is a simple matter of book keeping.

Assuming the OP is not able to derive a fair line for himself (if he was he would not have posted this thread):

Are Pinnacle lines the best indicator of a fair line available? No.
Are Pinnacle lines the best easily/widely available indicator of a fair line? Yes.

Do you think that betting into stale lines offered by his local using current Pinny lines that have moved will prove to have value. If no, explain why. If yes then I still have no idea what you are trying to say. Give the OP some usable advice that goes beyond "just pick winners" or stop waffling.

[wantitall4moi]

Assuming the OP is not able to derive a fair line for himself (if he was he would not have posted this thread):

Are Pinnacle lines the best indicator of a fair line available? No.
Are Pinnacle lines the best easily/widely available indicator of a fair line? Yes.

Do you think that betting into stale lines offered by his local using current Pinny lines that have moved will prove to have value. If no, explain why. If yes then I still have no idea what you are trying to say. Give the OP some usable advice that goes beyond "just pick winners" or stop waffling.

When you have two lines that are far enough apart you bet both. Trying to gain an advantage by using one as a guideline isnt going to work. Even IF, and I am not contending it is I KNOW it isnt. But even if Pinnacle line is a valid indicator, then to make it a valid approach you would have to bet every single line Pinnacle is different on.

So if Pinnacle has 17 lines that are a half point or more away from his bookies lines he would have to bet all 17 to get the full advantage. He couldnt pick and chose. Because any edge one might try to contrive isnt going to have an even distribution, some will be 'wrong' some will be 'right'. Overall they might have an advantage. Again I know they dont but for the sake of your argument.

So in those 17 games Pinnacle is 'right' on 10 of them, that is still 7 they are 'wrong' on. So say he makes 6 bets and all of them are on the 'wrong' games, Pinnacle still shows an 'advantage' but he was 0-6. Now you probability guys might try to throw some equations in there, but theyre totally meaningless. Because probability math doesnt jive with stuff based on opinion. because saying "the odds of him picking 6 of the 7 games Pinnacle were wrong on would be...." That doesnt work. The only way to truly make it 'mathematical' would be for him to bet 100% of the games he thinks Pinnacle has set a line on.

So I guess to answer your question of whether betting stale lines versus Pinny lines would be profitable I would say it would depend on how he bet those games. He also has to hope that the moves generated by Pinnacle were based on something other than chance.

As I said in that other thread, you might she short term patterns betting WITH the pinny 'lean' and also AGAINST it. I havent broken it down enough to bother. I just know on games I have bet that are obviously tracked the closers that won that 'beat' the opener were not significantly better or worse than the results where the closer was better than the opener and lost.

Meaning if I bet 1000 plays where I had an average opener of say -115 and the average closer was -130, I would not see anything outrageously out of the ordinary. Now if I looked at 100 or 200 game subsets within that then maybe I might find something. I just didnt bother.

[sapidoc]

When you have two lines that are far enough apart you bet both. Trying to gain an advantage by using one as a guideline isnt going to work. Even IF, and I am not contending it is I KNOW it isnt. But even if Pinnacle line is a valid indicator, then to make it a valid approach you would have to bet every single line Pinnacle is different on. So if Pinnacle has 17 lines that are a half point or more away from his bookies lines he would have to bet all 17 to get the full advantage. He couldnt pick and chose. Because any edge one might try to contrive isnt going to have an even distribution, some will be 'wrong' some will be 'right'. Overall they might have an advantage. Again I know they dont but for the sake of your argument. So in those 17 games Pinnacle is 'right' on 10 of them, that is still 7 they are 'wrong' on. So say he makes 6 bets and all of them are on the 'wrong' games, Pinnacle still shows an 'advantage' but he was 0-6. Now you probability guys might try to throw some equations in there, but theyre totally meaningless. Because probability math doesnt jive with stuff based on opinion. because saying "the odds of him picking 6 of the 7 games Pinnacle were wrong on would be...." That doesnt work. The only way to truly make it 'mathematical' would be for him to bet 100% of the games he thinks Pinnacle has set a line on. So I guess to answer your question of whether betting stale lines versus Pinny lines would be profitable I would say it would depend on how he bet those games. He also has to hope that the moves generated by Pinnacle were based on something other than chance. As I said in that other thread, you might she short term patterns betting WITH the pinny 'lean' and also AGAINST it. I havent broken it down enough to bother. I just know on games I have bet that are obviously tracked the closers that won that 'beat' the opener were not significantly better or worse than the results where the closer was better than the opener and lost. Meaning if I bet 1000 plays where I had an average opener of say -115 and the average closer was -130, I would not see anything outrageously out of the ordinary. Now if I looked at 100 or 200 game subsets within that then maybe I might find something. I just didnt bother.

FLK has tried to help you numerous times but you still don't get it. You seem to claim you keep track of a ton of data and line moves on Pinnacle. I would check your results again on if beating the closing pinny line makes a difference or not. I have similar (albeit more granular) data from pinny which shows otherwise.

[wantitall4moi]

FLK has tried to help you numerous times but you still don't get it. You seem to claim you keep track of a ton of data and line moves on Pinnacle. I would check your results again on if beating the closing pinny line makes a difference or not. I have similar (albeit more granular) data from pinny which shows otherwise.

Maybe yours does. I dont know. I also dont know what you consider making a difference is. If you think that over 1000 games Pinnacle has results of say 518-454-28 on the closers and 493-491-16 on the openers for those same games is a significant enough difference then that is where we have our impasse. Are they 'better'? Technically yes, are the results large enough to show a clear advantage? No.

[wantitall4moi]

You want to see what Pinnacle does, go look at the Cinci/Houston game and the ML. Look at the time stamps from 3:09 to 3:32. That will show you exactly what I have been saying on what they do.

[FourLengthsClear]

When you have two lines that are far enough apart you bet both. Trying to gain an advantage by using one as a guideline isnt going to work. Even IF, and I am not contending it is I KNOW it isnt. But even if Pinnacle line is a valid indicator, then to make it a valid approach you would have to bet every single line Pinnacle is different on.

So if Pinnacle has 17 lines that are a half point or more away from his bookies lines he would have to bet all 17 to get the full advantage. He couldnt pick and chose. Because any edge one might try to contrive isnt going to have an even distribution, some will be 'wrong' some will be 'right'. Overall they might have an advantage. Again I know they dont but for the sake of your argument.

So in those 17 games Pinnacle is 'right' on 10 of them, that is still 7 they are 'wrong' on. So say he makes 6 bets and all of them are on the 'wrong' games, Pinnacle still shows an 'advantage' but he was 0-6. Now you probability guys might try to throw some equations in there, but theyre totally meaningless. Because probability math doesnt jive with stuff based on opinion. because saying "the odds of him picking 6 of the 7 games Pinnacle were wrong on would be...." That doesnt work. The only way to truly make it 'mathematical' would be for him to bet 100% of the games he thinks Pinnacle has set a line on.

So I guess to answer your question of whether betting stale lines versus Pinny lines would be profitable I would say it would depend on how he bet those games. He also has to hope that the moves generated by Pinnacle were based on something other than chance.

As I said in that other thread, you might she short term patterns betting WITH the pinny 'lean' and also AGAINST it. I havent broken it down enough to bother. I just know on games I have bet that are obviously tracked the closers that won that 'beat' the opener were not significantly better or worse than the results where the closer was better than the opener and lost.

Meaning if I bet 1000 plays where I had an average opener of say -115 and the average closer was -130, I would not see anything outrageously out of the ordinary. Now if I looked at 100 or 200 game subsets within that then maybe I might find something. I just didnt bother.

So you are going to take a middle everytime there is a 2 point difference (for the sake of argument) and know that this is a better strategy than just betting the soft/stale line? I give up, I can't debate with someone who replaces logic (and facts) with such horribly disjointed 'thinking'.

The rest of the post is just the usual waffle which bears no relation to what the OP was advised.

[wantitall4moi]

So you are going to take a middle everytime there is a 2 point difference (for the sake of argument) and know that this is a better strategy than just betting the soft/stale line? I give up, I can't debate with someone who replaces logic (and facts) with such horribly disjointed 'thinking'.

The rest of the post is just the usual waffle which bears no relation to what the OP was advised.

Would depend on the sport and the numbers. If it were 2 full middles or a couple sides and a single middle. What the total was, and a few other things. Also vig.

Again I could show numbers but it wouldnt matter. Youre caught up in youre own little portion of reality. Which is why I say perception is a very dangerous thing. Unless you look at things from multiple angles and see how and why they are what they are then you wont ever get any better at something.

[dj_destroyer]

DJ you're a newb, pal. Go back to gaga sing alongs and beating off to bieber. I've been here since Chrismtas of last year and know of FLC and his greatness.

Been here longer than you, dummy. I also started my gambling journals over at Covers before I ever came here where I turned $1600 into $10000 with every play documented. So why don't you shut the fukk up with your 'newb' comments because you're making yourself look stupid.

[diondublin]

You want to see what Pinnacle does, go look at the Cinci/Houston game and the ML. Look at the time stamps from 3:09 to 3:32. That will show you exactly what I have been saying on what they do.

Where would I find this 'time-stamped' information?

[sapidoc]

Where would I find this 'time-stamped' information?

oddsfire.com tracks movements pretty closely.

[broker651]

Using same criteria, took, Pacers -8.5 (1.5pt Diff), bulls -3.5 (2 pt diff) and the Mavs -10.5 (1 pt diff) I unit each.
2-0-0 (2) So far +200 (Parenthesis indicates wins against public closing lines. My wins are against the America's line)

[sapidoc]

Using same criteria, took, Pacers -8.5 (1.5pt Diff), bulls -3.5 (2 pt diff) and the Mavs -10.5 (1 pt diff) I unit each. 2-0-0 (2) So far +200 (Parenthesis indicates wins against public closing lines. My wins are against the America's line)

broker... where do you live?

[broker651]

[broker651]

Pacers W, Bulls L, Dallas W
4-1-0 against AL - (4-1-0 against pinny line)