Just saw this market listed with a book I use.
First To Occur 2012:
Bet Win odds
Green Bay win Super Bowl (Feb) +150
France win 6-Nations Rugby (Mar) +300
McIlroy win US Masters (Apr) +1800
Barca win Champs League (May) +450
Spain win Euro 2012 (Jul) +1000
Djokovic win Wimbledon (Jul) +1000
Evans win Tour de France (Jul) +4000
Bolt win Olympic 100m Gold (Aug) +800
Collingwood win AFL Flag (Sep) +6600
India win T20 WorldCup (Oct) +10000
None Of These Occur 2012 +1000
Be prepared to laugh at my math on this. My thoughts are that you would take the probability of each occurring individually and then multiply by the chances of each event before it not occurring. So using the first two events as an example:
Say we believe Green Bay is a 31.89% chance of winning the Super Bowl (feel free to disagree with the probability, but looking at the process). We believe that France is 33.14% chance of winning the Six Nations Rugby Tournament.
To work out the probability of France being the winning bet in this prop, we would need to multiply the chance of Green Bay not winning the Super Bowl (68.11%) with the chance of France winning the Six Nations (33.14%)
.6811 * .3314 = .2257
So France is a 22.57% chance of being the first event to occur in 2012.
Which makes them a poor value wager for this prop.
Sound thinking or did I just give the math guys a bit of a laugh?
First To Occur 2012:
Bet Win odds
Green Bay win Super Bowl (Feb) +150
France win 6-Nations Rugby (Mar) +300
McIlroy win US Masters (Apr) +1800
Barca win Champs League (May) +450
Spain win Euro 2012 (Jul) +1000
Djokovic win Wimbledon (Jul) +1000
Evans win Tour de France (Jul) +4000
Bolt win Olympic 100m Gold (Aug) +800
Collingwood win AFL Flag (Sep) +6600
India win T20 WorldCup (Oct) +10000
None Of These Occur 2012 +1000
Be prepared to laugh at my math on this. My thoughts are that you would take the probability of each occurring individually and then multiply by the chances of each event before it not occurring. So using the first two events as an example:
Say we believe Green Bay is a 31.89% chance of winning the Super Bowl (feel free to disagree with the probability, but looking at the process). We believe that France is 33.14% chance of winning the Six Nations Rugby Tournament.
To work out the probability of France being the winning bet in this prop, we would need to multiply the chance of Green Bay not winning the Super Bowl (68.11%) with the chance of France winning the Six Nations (33.14%)
.6811 * .3314 = .2257
So France is a 22.57% chance of being the first event to occur in 2012.
Which makes them a poor value wager for this prop.
Sound thinking or did I just give the math guys a bit of a laugh?