All,
I wanted to share what I’ve learned over the last 4 years of sports betting. A lot of this forum has degenerated to people trying to show off, gain internet respect, trash each other, etc. but wanted to share what I’ve learned over my time betting baseball, basketball, and football, in the spirit of contributing and helping each other out – going into the holidays, we should remember that this forum is one of the few places where we’re all on the same team, trying to help each other beat the books. This is a bit of a long post, but hopefully you guys find some useful insights here.
1) Stay away from coin-flip games. Bank on elite, reliable teams
a. I focus on betting games where elite teams who are consistent and reliable are playing mediocre, bad teams. I stay away from elite teams playing elite teams (basically a coin-flip), and mediocre teams playing mediocre/bad teams (also a coin-flip – you just can’t rely on bad teams. Even if a mediocre team is playing a really bad team – mediocre teams are unreliable, and even in games against awful teams that they should win, they often lose)
2) I only bet Football, and no longer bet Baseball or Basketball
a. Baseball – too many (162) games, players don’t take each game as seriously. Additionally, I’ve come to think of baseball as a game where it’s “too difficult to score” – similar to why I don’t bet soccer or hockey, when scoring is that difficult, the better team doesn’t always win (they can get down early, pressure gets on, etc.) While over a full season, the best teams will tend to have the better records, on any one individual game, games can be too inconsistent for me.
b. Basketball – also a lot of games (82), so players don’t take each game as seriously. In contrast to baseball, I’ve found basketball is a game where it’s “too easy to score”. As a result, back-door covers by underdogs happen much more frequently, and point spreads can so easily be lost when a team is winning by a lot once the game is already in hand. So easy to let the losing team hit another basket given how easy it is to score. While that can often help you as well (if you’re on the other side), consistency is king for me, and I prefer betting on games where you can most reliably depend on the right team winning by the right amount.
c. Football – just the right amount of games (16) where every game matters. Just the right amount of difficulty in scoring – it’s not so hard that you get the problems you do in baseball/hockey/soccer. It’s not too easy where you get the downsides in basketball (that’s not to say that backdoor covers don’t occur in football of course). If you stick to the elite teams and stay away from mediocre/unreliable teams, more often the better team will win by the number of points they should.
3) Bet fewer games, but bet them bigger
a. I know the general thought process in this forum is to bet a lot of games, bet them small (1%-5% of bankroll), and grind it out by trying to hit 55%+ winners. In my opinion, that gets mentally exhausting, and it also gets you into the habit of betting a lot more coin-flip games. I much prefer finding the one or two games I really like (ie. elite team playing bad team on the road, in a tight divisional race, trying to lock up 2nd seed in playoffs), and betting them big (10%-15% of bankroll).
4) Know the teams situations and motivations
a. I definitely keep track of when divisions are locked up (and teams can be less motivated), when teams are playing for playoff seeding, etc.
b. My favorite time of the year to bet (and when I consequently up my betting amount) is Weeks 13-17 in the NFL. At this point, the elite teams know exactly what they’re playing for, and are extra motivated. Athletes are people too, and just like us, are much more focused when goals are short-term, tangible, and within grasp (as opposed to earlier in the season, where players care about games, but playoffs are so far in the distant, they are prone to inconsistent play). As such I bet bigger later in the season, and much less earlier in the season where I like to get a better sense for which teams are “bankable” that season
5) Don’t bet games just because they’re “big games” or great matchups
a. I used to be the biggest culprit of this – betting “big games big”. I’d bet large on a game just because it’s a great matchup (ie. Superbowl). Lines are extra sharp, and these games are essentially coin-flips that can go either way.
b. It’s been said a number of times on this forum, but it’s worth repeating – you can win just the same on the Superbowl as a lowly NCAAF match that no one’s watching. You’re either in this to make money, or in it to entertain yourself. I don’t mind sprinkling a small bet on the Superbowl or a big game I know I’m going to watch just to make things interesting, root for a team, but like I said, these are basically coin-flips you should typically stay away from.
6) Sports are played by people, not robots or computers
a. So often I see people on this forum get overly enamored by line movements, that books “already know what’s going to happen”, or that “sharps are moving a line, let’s follow”. At the end of the day, these games are being played by real people and they can make mistakes, are prone to get into mental slumps, etc. While it’s great to analyze line movement and find patterns / tendencies that can help you get the best lines, this shouldn’t be the sole reason you bet games. This is still a real sport played by real people, and if you don’t understand the underlying teams and matchups, betting games blindly due to line movement, because the public/sharps are on one side or another, etc. is a losing strategy in my opinion.
I’ve stayed very disciplined to these rules this season in football, and have done very well. I bet one or two games each week, and bet them larger. I stick to elite teams playing mediocre teams and stay away from coin-flip games as much as possible. You won’t win every game of course, but in my opinion, these are the most “consistent” games that you can bet on and for me, consistency is king. I plan on betting big over the next few weeks in football (perhaps up through first round of playoffs depending on matchups), but am then scaling back and enjoying the playoffs as a football fan. I might make a few small bets for fun since I know I’ll be watching the games, but not buying into the trap of betting big games big.
Hopefully you guys have found some of these strategies useful and can incorporate into your own betting systems.
All the best going into the holiday season!
I wanted to share what I’ve learned over the last 4 years of sports betting. A lot of this forum has degenerated to people trying to show off, gain internet respect, trash each other, etc. but wanted to share what I’ve learned over my time betting baseball, basketball, and football, in the spirit of contributing and helping each other out – going into the holidays, we should remember that this forum is one of the few places where we’re all on the same team, trying to help each other beat the books. This is a bit of a long post, but hopefully you guys find some useful insights here.
1) Stay away from coin-flip games. Bank on elite, reliable teams
a. I focus on betting games where elite teams who are consistent and reliable are playing mediocre, bad teams. I stay away from elite teams playing elite teams (basically a coin-flip), and mediocre teams playing mediocre/bad teams (also a coin-flip – you just can’t rely on bad teams. Even if a mediocre team is playing a really bad team – mediocre teams are unreliable, and even in games against awful teams that they should win, they often lose)
2) I only bet Football, and no longer bet Baseball or Basketball
a. Baseball – too many (162) games, players don’t take each game as seriously. Additionally, I’ve come to think of baseball as a game where it’s “too difficult to score” – similar to why I don’t bet soccer or hockey, when scoring is that difficult, the better team doesn’t always win (they can get down early, pressure gets on, etc.) While over a full season, the best teams will tend to have the better records, on any one individual game, games can be too inconsistent for me.
b. Basketball – also a lot of games (82), so players don’t take each game as seriously. In contrast to baseball, I’ve found basketball is a game where it’s “too easy to score”. As a result, back-door covers by underdogs happen much more frequently, and point spreads can so easily be lost when a team is winning by a lot once the game is already in hand. So easy to let the losing team hit another basket given how easy it is to score. While that can often help you as well (if you’re on the other side), consistency is king for me, and I prefer betting on games where you can most reliably depend on the right team winning by the right amount.
c. Football – just the right amount of games (16) where every game matters. Just the right amount of difficulty in scoring – it’s not so hard that you get the problems you do in baseball/hockey/soccer. It’s not too easy where you get the downsides in basketball (that’s not to say that backdoor covers don’t occur in football of course). If you stick to the elite teams and stay away from mediocre/unreliable teams, more often the better team will win by the number of points they should.
3) Bet fewer games, but bet them bigger
a. I know the general thought process in this forum is to bet a lot of games, bet them small (1%-5% of bankroll), and grind it out by trying to hit 55%+ winners. In my opinion, that gets mentally exhausting, and it also gets you into the habit of betting a lot more coin-flip games. I much prefer finding the one or two games I really like (ie. elite team playing bad team on the road, in a tight divisional race, trying to lock up 2nd seed in playoffs), and betting them big (10%-15% of bankroll).
4) Know the teams situations and motivations
a. I definitely keep track of when divisions are locked up (and teams can be less motivated), when teams are playing for playoff seeding, etc.
b. My favorite time of the year to bet (and when I consequently up my betting amount) is Weeks 13-17 in the NFL. At this point, the elite teams know exactly what they’re playing for, and are extra motivated. Athletes are people too, and just like us, are much more focused when goals are short-term, tangible, and within grasp (as opposed to earlier in the season, where players care about games, but playoffs are so far in the distant, they are prone to inconsistent play). As such I bet bigger later in the season, and much less earlier in the season where I like to get a better sense for which teams are “bankable” that season
5) Don’t bet games just because they’re “big games” or great matchups
a. I used to be the biggest culprit of this – betting “big games big”. I’d bet large on a game just because it’s a great matchup (ie. Superbowl). Lines are extra sharp, and these games are essentially coin-flips that can go either way.
b. It’s been said a number of times on this forum, but it’s worth repeating – you can win just the same on the Superbowl as a lowly NCAAF match that no one’s watching. You’re either in this to make money, or in it to entertain yourself. I don’t mind sprinkling a small bet on the Superbowl or a big game I know I’m going to watch just to make things interesting, root for a team, but like I said, these are basically coin-flips you should typically stay away from.
6) Sports are played by people, not robots or computers
a. So often I see people on this forum get overly enamored by line movements, that books “already know what’s going to happen”, or that “sharps are moving a line, let’s follow”. At the end of the day, these games are being played by real people and they can make mistakes, are prone to get into mental slumps, etc. While it’s great to analyze line movement and find patterns / tendencies that can help you get the best lines, this shouldn’t be the sole reason you bet games. This is still a real sport played by real people, and if you don’t understand the underlying teams and matchups, betting games blindly due to line movement, because the public/sharps are on one side or another, etc. is a losing strategy in my opinion.
I’ve stayed very disciplined to these rules this season in football, and have done very well. I bet one or two games each week, and bet them larger. I stick to elite teams playing mediocre teams and stay away from coin-flip games as much as possible. You won’t win every game of course, but in my opinion, these are the most “consistent” games that you can bet on and for me, consistency is king. I plan on betting big over the next few weeks in football (perhaps up through first round of playoffs depending on matchups), but am then scaling back and enjoying the playoffs as a football fan. I might make a few small bets for fun since I know I’ll be watching the games, but not buying into the trap of betting big games big.
Hopefully you guys have found some of these strategies useful and can incorporate into your own betting systems.
All the best going into the holiday season!
