What edge do you have in Sports Betting?

[LT Profits]

Nobody would understand my brooklyn accent.

Ay, fuhgedaboudit!

[Justin7]

Actually, Justin is not a newbie. I believe he made a cameo appearance on ESPN during a feature they did on Dr. Bob? Wasn't that you Justin?

There will be more than a cameo this fall.

[durito]

Justin do you think books are laughing at SBR posters who constantly bet on NFL preseason games?

If by laughing you mean imposing new limits, then yes.

[Brady2Moss]

Brady,

I am afraid it is not that simple. Using an average midpoint ONLY works for Pick'ems (-104/+104, -105/+105, -110/+110).

In this particluar case, the No Vig Price is calclated as follows:

Cubs implied -148 = 59.68% (148/248)
Marlins implied +128 = 43.86% (100/228)

So:

59.68/(59.68+43.86) = 57.6%
43.86/(59.68+43.86) = 42.4%

No Vig Line = 57.6/42.4 = +/-136.1

(How was that Ganch? )

Thx for the correction LT, lol it was late

[Bullajami]

Another outstanding video, Justin.

I have a question, though, regarding beating a closing number:

You mention that beating the closing number makes the books unhappy, but whose closing number do you have to beat? If I get +140 at KnuckaheadSports.com just before game time when Pinnacle closed at +136 (zero-vig) who is troubled? Is it not likely that KnuckaheadSports was offering that line in an attempt to balance their action and they were happy to take my bet in this instance as I lowered their exposure on the favorite?

[durito]

Is it not likely that KnuckaheadSports was offering that line in an attempt to balance their action and they were happy to take my bet in this instance as I lowered their exposure on the favorite?

It's more likely they were offering it because they know most of their players will take the favorite regardless of the price and anyone that only bets the dog can be kicked out. This is the SIA business model.

[FreeFall]

why is it the closing line that you want to beat? Isnt that the most inflated point of the line and your no longer betting the vegas-predicted odds of the game, but more what the public wants?

[donjuan]

why is it the closing line that you want to beat? Isnt that the most inflated point of the line and your no longer betting the vegas-predicted odds of the game, but more what the public wants?

Because the market generally gets more efficient the closer you get to game time. Watch Justin's earlier video on line movement.

[reno cool]

whether the line gets more accurate or not, you can see that there's inherent value
in having the line get substantially worse than what you bet it at. You can hedge out for a profit or at least be betting into a smaller vig.

[donjuan]

whether the line gets more accurate or not, you can see that there's inherent value
in having the line get substantially worse than what you bet it at. You can hedge out for a profit or at least be betting into a smaller vig.

Or even using hedging to maximize expected growth...

[dwaechte]

There will be more than a cameo this fall.

Care to explain Justin? Sounds pretty cool.

[LT Profits]

Justin is playing the role of young Lefty Rosenthal in an ESPN Remake of his biography.

[LT Profits]

Oh, I forgot...

[rake922]

rake,

Why should they? I was 77-47, 62% in preseason since 2002 before this year.

read my question again... I didn't ask "What is LT profits record in NFL preseason?"

[LT Profits]

rake,

You implied that people shouldn't be betting preseason consistently. I feel their should be more people playing preseason.

[durito]

rake,

You implied that people shouldn't be betting preseason consistently. I feel their should be more people playing preseason.

I don't. Let them wait for regular season. I'll be at the beach

[Dark Horse]

rake,

You implied that people shouldn't be betting preseason consistently. I feel their should be more people playing preseason.

You must not mind the feeling of idiocy associated with being on a game that unfolds in a totally different way than what could reasonably have been expected.

[durito]

You must not mind the feeling of idiocy associated with being on a game that unfolds in a totally different way than what could reasonably have been expected.

No, I just like free money.

[LT Profits]

You must not mind the feeling of idiocy associated with being on a game that unfolds in a totally different way than what could reasonably have been expected.

Obviosuly not considering my preseason record.

[Baker]

Have you considered the method of comparing a handicappers or players plays to the line move?

Using a broad assumption that lines move roughly 40/20/40 (40% the line will move either way and 20% it will remain unchanged) it is much more impressive to me (and a much more difficult feat) if someone can predict a 40% probability event at high rate.

I think you will find that using this method will give you a much more accurate forecast of someones probability of future success than simply looking at their win/loss or the mean line value they had throughout the same number of plays.

[LT Profits]

Have you considered the method of comparing a handicappers or players plays to the line move?

Using a broad assumption that lines move roughly 40/20/40 (40% the line will move either way and 20% it will remain unchanged) it is much more impressive to me (and a much more difficult feat) if someone can predict a 40% probability event at high rate.

I think you will find that using this method will give you a much more accurate forecast of someones probability of future success than simply looking at their win/loss or the mean line value they had throughout the same number of plays.

Excellent, excellent post!

Unfortunately, it would take LOTS of work to backtrack results by handicapper. It would be good tp start a log today though of one is so inclined.

[LT Profits]

Actually, I just thought of a fatal flaw in this method:

A lot of scammers post the best line that was available on their games since the line opened, even if that line is no longer available.

Feel free to go back and check my plays though, as my lines are always current and I usually post the books I got the lines at, especially If the line is off the consensus line.

[Baker]

Obvously I was comparing apples to apples, just as Justin was assuming that you could compare the actual line bet to the closing median I was assuming you could compare the line bet to the closing line.

[xyz]

I would like to ask the reverse question: what edge do sportsbooks have in sports betting? For a point spread -110 line, the book would make $10 for every $220 wagered against them if the bets balance out. That would be a 4.5% profit. But what about for futures such as who is going to win the Super Bowl? All the odds for the different teams do not add up to 1. How do you calculate the book's edge in this case? Thanks for your insight.

[reno cool]

take 1/payout that is 15-1 would be 1/16=.0625
do this for all teams, add them together.

you will have # bigger than1
divide 1 by that # that will be your payback say .86 for example. that means their vig is 14%

now most LV books give themselves a huge edge for these bets, often over 50%.

but the lines vary a lot from place to place, they would probably get killed if not for the huge vig.

[xyz]

Thanks for the knowledge, reno_cool I have two followup questions:

1. For some future bets, the book does not always carry all the possibilities. For example, the bet is on the winner of a golf tournament, and it doesn't have a field bet. How would you estimate the book's edge in this case?

2. From your post, it looks like the profit margin is higher on future bets for the book than point spread -110 bets. Would this mean that the books make more from future bets, or does the volume on the point spread bets make up for the smaller profit margin?

take 1/payout that is 15-1 would be 1/16=.0625
do this for all teams, add them together.

you will have # bigger than1
divide 1 by that # that will be your payback say .86 for example. that means their vig is 14%

now most LV books give themselves a huge edge for these bets, often over 50%.

but the lines vary a lot from place to place, they would probably get killed if not for the huge vig.

[reno cool]

The vig on a particular player can't be known in and of itself,-- you have to be a handicapper to evaluate that. It would be strange if they didn't offer a bet on some one who had a chance to win. You could estimate his prob of winning and add that to the previous formula. Say a chance of some one else winning is 1in20, you would add .05 to the total # before dividing 1 by it.

I think most future bets are designed for recreational bettors who have a favorite home team and so forth--- from the casino standpoint. I really don't know how much relative action they get. Remember, some of these you have to sit on for a long time, so its hard for a player(or book) to make money fast.

[coldhardfacts]

Very good video.

But much more important than getting a better line than the closing line is getting a better line in relation to what the line should be. The posted lines, whether opening, an hour before gametime, or closing, are subjective based on the opinions of the oddsmakers and the public (sharpies and squares alike). If you are a solid handicapper and can consistently make a reasonable assessment of what the line should be, you will know if you are getting the best of any game, and you will win consistently in the long run.

[donjuan]

But much more important than getting a better line than the closing line is getting a better line in relation to what the line should be.

Sure, but since closing lines are usually more efficient than the line during the rest of the week, it's pretty important to beat.

[dwaechte]

Very good video.

But much more important than getting a better line than the closing line is getting a better line in relation to what the line should be. The posted lines, whether opening, an hour before gametime, or closing, are subjective based on the opinions of the oddsmakers and the public (sharpies and squares alike). If you are a solid handicapper and can consistently make a reasonable assessment of what the line should be, you will know if you are getting the best of any game, and you will win consistently in the long run.

Three things:

1. The lines aren't really all that "subjective". Books and sharps go to great lengths to make the lines as objective as possible.

2. In almost every case, the line WILL get more efficient as game-time approaches.

3. No matter what you may think, on something like an NFL side, if you cap it at -3 and the real line turns out to be -7, its not the books who have the wrong number/price, it's you. To be more clear, the book may not have the "perfect price", but to assume something like a book being off 4 points on an NFL side is unrealistic. Maybe the line should be -4 and assuming -7 will put you on the right play, but you need to balance your confidence in your own opinion with the facts that the book line provides.

[coldhardfacts]

Three things:

1. The lines aren't really all that "subjective". Books and sharps go to great lengths to make the lines as objective as possible.

2. In almost every case, the line WILL get more efficient as game-time approaches.

3. No matter what you may think, on something like an NFL side, if you cap it at -3 and the real line turns out to be -7, its not the books who have the wrong number/price, it's you. To be more clear, the book may not have the "perfect price", but to assume something like a book being off 4 points on an NFL side is unrealistic. Maybe the line should be -4 and assuming -7 will put you on the right play, but you need to balance your confidence in your own opinion with the facts that the book line provides.

The line will get more efficient as the game approaches closing time if by more efficient you mean it will get closest to the true MARKET PRICE, i.e., the price at which the linesetters/bookmakers are going to maximize their profits or minimize their risk. That is ALL it means. As someone said, about 40% of the time the line moves in the right direction, about 40% of the time it moves in the wrong direction, and about 20% of the time it doesn't move.

Your NFL example notwithstanding, there are significant mistakes in the lines that are set EVERY SINGLE DAY. Much less so in the NFL than in MLB, NBA, or college football or basketball, I'll grant you, but on any given Sunday you can usually find at least one game where a team that should be at most a 3 point underdog is getting 6 or 7.

[dwaechte]

The line will get more efficient as the game approaches closing time if by more efficient you mean it will get closest to the true MARKET PRICE, i.e., the price at which the linesetters/bookmakers are going to maximize their profits or minimize their risk. That is ALL it means. As someone said, about 40% of the time the line moves in the right direction, about 40% of the time it moves in the wrong direction, and about 20% of the time it doesn't move.

Your NFL example notwithstanding, there are significant mistakes in the lines that are set EVERY SINGLE DAY. Much less so in the NFL than in MLB, NBA, or college football or basketball, I'll grant you, but on any given Sunday you can usually find at least one game where a team that should be at most a 3 point underdog is getting 6 or 7.

I think you're misinterpreting what the other poster said about the 40/20/40 thing. It wasn't that the line will move in the "right" or "wrong" direction, it was that it had a 40%(80% combined) chance of moving either way, under the assumption that whatever way it moved was the "right" direction, so to speak.

The market price at which books maximize profits and minimize risk is almost always a more "correct" line than ones that preceded it. If a book moves to what it knows is an off line to entice action on one side, they're generally not maximizing profits while minimizing risk, because they're going to get pounded on that off line.

I just can't agree with your basic premise that a "good handicapper" can find lines that are that inefficient. You're assuming too much market inefficiency in a market that's been around for a long time and in which smart investors have long begun to capitalize on. Now there's no way for either of us to prove anything at this point, since it's basically a discussion of the most fundamental issues of sports markets and I doubt either one of us has the inside knowledge to really debate this effectively.

[coldhardfacts]

I think you're misinterpreting what the other poster said about the 40/20/40 thing. It wasn't that the line will move in the "right" or "wrong" direction, it was that it had a 40%(80% combined) chance of moving either way, under the assumption that whatever way it moved was the "right" direction, so to speak.

The market price at which books maximize profits and minimize risk is almost always a more "correct" line than ones that preceded it. If a book moves to what it knows is an off line to entice action on one side, they're generally not maximizing profits while minimizing risk, because they're going to get pounded on that off line.

I just can't agree with your basic premise that a "good handicapper" can find lines that are that inefficient. You're assuming too much market inefficiency in a market that's been around for a long time and in which smart investors have long begun to capitalize on. Now there's no way for either of us to prove anything at this point, since it's basically a discussion of the most fundamental issues of sports markets and I doubt either one of us has the inside knowledge to really debate this effectively.

You seem to be saying that the betting line is always a true indication of the relative strength and weaknesses of the teams. That is fundamentally untrue. Most of the time it is, but often it is not. The betting line represents only the public's (or someone's) OPINION as to the strength and weaknesses of the teams, and a good handicapper can identify situations where that opinion is skewed.

[donjuan]

You seem to be saying that the betting line is always a true indication of the relative strength and weaknesses of the teams. That is fundamentally untrue. Most of the time it is, but often it is not. The betting line represents only the public's (or someone's) OPINION as to the strength and weaknesses of the teams, and a good handicapper can identify situations where that opinion is skewed.

1. We are talking about the closing line, not some random line during the week.

2. What exactly do you mean by opinion? You think advantage bettors who move lines are just saying I like team A because Tom Brady is good?

[BigCap]

Sure, but since closing lines are usually more efficient than the line during the rest of the week, it's pretty important to beat.

Just like it's important to beat a $10/20 game, but since $5/10 is easier you make more money in the easier game.

So it makes more sense to beat the earlier (weaker) lines for higher profit margin. Why climb a higher mountain when you don't need to.