What edge do you have in Sports Betting?
(Intermediate) This video explains a few ways to analyze handicappers, betting systems, or other potentially random sequences. You'll get a crash-course on standard deviations applied to gambling, and see how sportsbooks determine whether a player is likely to win going forward.
-
-
Your best video yet, very informative.
Keep them coming.
Comment -
i enjoy your vidsComment -
Do you have to compare the odds you got to the average of the markets closing price, or is comparing it to Pinnacles closer enough if you beat it?Comment -
Edge, are you fukin kidding?? BetJamaica owes me a house for all my losses thereComment -
NICE WORK SIR
Comment -
For those that want to know more about parlays:
Comment -
Good video Justin. Always informative.
Comment -
if you boys dont want to watch the whole vid.. just make sure you watch it from the 5:45 till the end.. it's all you need to know. it's the most important thing you need to know about gambling and it's the only way you have any chance at beating the book..
the 1st 5:45 is about standard deviations and all. (for the math guys).. but just make sure you see from 5:45 till end..
it's really all you'll ever need to know in gambling. .nothing else is important.. if you cant do this.. then QUIT NOW.. trust me..
good vid.Comment -
Too busy watchin porno, maybe next yearComment -
Great video, Justin. Thanks.Comment -
justin can you do your next video in your swimmers
that would be nice to see
great video atleast for the newcommers
Comment -
Best part is from 8:36 onComment -
justin is one of the few sharps on this forum.Comment -
good video, i will be looking for moreComment -
Thanks Juston that's a great video, I have a question:
How would you calculate the "edge" on a point spread instead of a ML type bet?
The Final Line at Pinnacle is
Team A -4.5 (-104)
Team B +4.5 (-104)
Now I can see that getting Team B @ +4.5 at +102 would be a .02 cent edge.
But how do you calculate getting Team B @:
+5 (-104)
+5 (-107)
+5 (+100)
I would think that it would depend on the sport and what number it is at. For example getting +3.5 in football instead of 3 is a bigger edge than getting +5.5 instead of +5.
Are there any guidlines for figuring out your edge in these cases?Comment -
Okay I actually watched the video now, it was fairly interesting, my only question is how the hell do I beat the closing number? I mean how do I figure out which way the odds are going to move? Any tipsComment -
Thanks for the great video.
Question: How do you get this "no-vig closing price"? In your example, it was -100, coming from -104 on both sides.
What would it be for this closing:
Cubs -148
Marlins +128
So what odds am I trying to beat if I wanted to take either the Cubs or Marlins?Comment -
Very Informative. Thanks!Comment -
Man Im getting old.Comment -
To answer your question, the "no vig" line in this case would beThanks for the great video.
Question: How do you get this "no-vig closing price"? In your example, it was -100, coming from -104 on both sides.
What would it be for this closing:
Cubs -148
Marlins +128
So what odds am I trying to beat if I wanted to take either the Cubs or Marlins?
-138/+138 (ie a 0 cent line)
You should never bet into a 20 cent MLB moneyline, you can get much better odds at Pinny or Matchbook (or even better, overnight 5dimes ML *only 5 cents!!!*)
You can beat the hell out of 5dimes overnight linesComment -
More interesting than the Kelly video but also somewhat misleading.
I agree that you're a winner if you can consistently get a better price than the closing line.
But that does not mean you can't win consistently simply beating average lines. That is if you ignore closing lines and get equal line movements for or against.
Are you fighting the bookmakers or the market(handicappers)?
Both methods are legit.
Standard deviation and variance are more interesting topics, I'd like to hear more on what you think there. Absolutely a huge issue in gambling. Any one interested in serious gambling with a small edge needs to be aware of these things.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
nice videoComment -
Nice videoComment -
Thank YouComment -
Brady,
I am afraid it is not that simple. Using an average midpoint ONLY works for Pick'ems (-104/+104, -105/+105, -110/+110).
In this particluar case, the No Vig Price is calclated as follows:
Cubs implied -148 = 59.68% (148/248)
Marlins implied +128 = 43.86% (100/228)
So:
59.68/(59.68+43.86) = 57.6%
43.86/(59.68+43.86) = 42.4%
No Vig Line = 57.6/42.4 = +/-136.1
(How was that Ganch?
)
Comment -
Wouldn't the Matchbook final line be just as accurate as Pinny's? Say a game closes at -187/+185 at MB. The fair value (FV) is roughly 186.Comment -
nice work.
great video.
over the course of hundreds and thousands of wagers that small extra edge in juice or points makes a big difference.
when i place a wager in the morning i always look to see which way the line moves throughout the course of the day. i get a sense of satisfaction when i see i got a good price compared to the prices at the later stages of the day. i feel that the play i made is a good one. if the line changes to where i paid too high i lose confidence in that wagerComment -
Justin do you think books are laughing at SBR posters who constantly bet on NFL preseason games?Comment -
rake,
Why should they? I was 77-47, 62% in preseason since 2002 before this year.Comment -
Daily contact with certain trainers, jockeys and hot walkers.What edge do you have in Sports Betting?
Comment -
Justin keep the videos coming your doing a great job.
John where did you find this guy??Comment
