Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#2
Depends on how many bets you're talking about making in a season.
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thebestthereis
SBR Posting Legend
03-01-09
11459
#3
My step brother is like 59% in our pool picking every game this year, it is totally doable.
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JR007
SBR Hall of Famer
02-21-10
5279
#4
I guarantee one poster here will have a" record" of 60% by seasons end
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InTheDrink
SBR Posting Legend
11-23-09
23983
#5
I try not to bet every Sunday but I still find myself looking and throwing a couple small plays out.
This week I had Minnesota -1....fukked
Teased new England and green bay....fukked
Well really more like I suck at nfl. I've been rock solid with college this year....nfl not so much.
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ttrace35
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-10
10828
#6
Check tracer tread.
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Smogs
SBR MVP
12-31-08
4173
#7
Originally posted by JR007
Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL
Statsational and Kroyrunner are both well documented and over 60%
Sweetjones55 was well known for his NBA 60% hit rate, then he went tout and hits winners like Blaine Gabbert hits receivers
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Grinder12000
SBR MVP
04-21-11
1809
#8
Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!
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Emily_Haines
SBR Posting Legend
04-14-09
15917
#9
Originally posted by Grinder12000
Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!
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Emily_Haines
SBR Posting Legend
04-14-09
15917
#10
Long term it's impossible to hit 60%
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k13
SBR Posting Legend
07-16-10
18104
#11
90% is attainable picking SU.....
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#12
Absolutely.
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#13
Over 1,000 or more plays, I highly doubt that anyone will hit at 60% in NFL.
If it is doable they would be rich beyond their dreams and would not be sharing their 'secrets' with anyone.
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The Seer
SBR Posting Legend
10-29-07
10641
#14
yes
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#15
Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.
Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.
* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
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NYSportsGuy210
SBR Posting Legend
11-07-09
11347
#16
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.
Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limits.
* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%
So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.
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Huh
Restricted User
11-23-11
122
#17
I bet one or two games a week. only way I've ever made any money at this
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#18
Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%
So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.
I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.
To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.
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JR007
SBR Hall of Famer
02-21-10
5279
#19
think the more plays, would be regression to the mean, difficult at best with the variance, and vig, Paco,s around 57% last I looked,pretty good, think that it is doable for say 100 plays ???
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thekid667
SBR Sharp
11-09-10
468
#20
Not many picks but here ya go
....
Attached Files
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smoke a bowl
SBR MVP
02-09-09
2776
#21
Looks like we have all winners here. Sweeeeeet.
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Scuba Gooding Jr
SBR High Roller
09-18-11
173
#22
I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.
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smoke a bowl
SBR MVP
02-09-09
2776
#23
Another big winner. Sweeeeeeet.
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big0mar
SBR MVP
01-09-09
3374
#24
Absolutely
[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.
You are working hard enough, I presume?
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#26
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.
Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.
* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.
To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.
Nobody?
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smoke a bowl
SBR MVP
02-09-09
2776
#27
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
Nobody?
Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?
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Ra77er
SBR Posting Legend
06-20-11
10969
#28
$370,200
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#29
Originally posted by smoke a bowl
Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?
Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.
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smoke a bowl
SBR MVP
02-09-09
2776
#30
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.
Of course, that was tongue and cheek. I'll just keep grinding my 531(521 on -105 accounts lol) out of 1000 and watch the pennies add up.
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Scuba Gooding Jr
SBR High Roller
09-18-11
173
#31
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
You are working hard enough, I presume?
And you're not, I presume ?
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#32
Originally posted by Ra77er
$370,200
Not too far off.
It is $470,610.
Utilising full Kelly (16% of BR) the figure would be USD 125,468,486 albeit you would run into limits long before that, of course. You would reach USD 1 million after 589 plays.
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#33
Originally posted by Scuba Gooding Jr
And you're not, I presume ?
Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.
Note to self: "Must work harder".
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Scuba Gooding Jr
SBR High Roller
09-18-11
173
#34
Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.
Note to self: "Must work harder".
What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?
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FourLengthsClear
SBR MVP
12-29-10
3808
#35
Originally posted by Scuba Gooding Jr
What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?
The rest of your life ideally but in my posts above, I have referred to a sample size of 1000 plays.