60% Posters

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  • JR007
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-21-10
    • 5279

    #1
    60% Posters
    Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL
  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #2
    Depends on how many bets you're talking about making in a season.
    Comment
    • thebestthereis
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-01-09
      • 11459

      #3
      My step brother is like 59% in our pool picking every game this year, it is totally doable.
      Comment
      • JR007
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-21-10
        • 5279

        #4
        I guarantee one poster here will have a" record" of 60% by seasons end
        Comment
        • InTheDrink
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-23-09
          • 23983

          #5
          I try not to bet every Sunday but I still find myself looking and throwing a couple small plays out.

          This week I had Minnesota -1....fukked

          Teased new England and green bay....fukked

          Well really more like I suck at nfl. I've been rock solid with college this year....nfl not so much.
          Comment
          • ttrace35
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-30-10
            • 10828

            #6
            Check tracer tread.
            Comment
            • Smogs
              SBR MVP
              • 12-31-08
              • 4173

              #7
              Originally posted by JR007
              Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL
              Statsational and Kroyrunner are both well documented and over 60%

              Sweetjones55 was well known for his NBA 60% hit rate, then he went tout and hits winners like Blaine Gabbert hits receivers
              Comment
              • Grinder12000
                SBR MVP
                • 04-21-11
                • 1809

                #8
                Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!
                Comment
                • Emily_Haines
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-14-09
                  • 15917

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Grinder12000
                  Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!
                  Comment
                  • Emily_Haines
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-09
                    • 15917

                    #10
                    Long term it's impossible to hit 60%
                    Comment
                    • k13
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-16-10
                      • 18104

                      #11
                      90% is attainable picking SU.....
                      Comment
                      • No coincidences
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-18-10
                        • 76300

                        #12
                        Absolutely.
                        Comment
                        • FourLengthsClear
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-29-10
                          • 3808

                          #13
                          Over 1,000 or more plays, I highly doubt that anyone will hit at 60% in NFL.

                          If it is doable they would be rich beyond their dreams and would not be sharing their 'secrets' with anyone.
                          Comment
                          • The Seer
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-29-07
                            • 10641

                            #14
                            yes
                            Comment
                            • FourLengthsClear
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-29-10
                              • 3808

                              #15
                              Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

                              Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.

                              * According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
                              Comment
                              • NYSportsGuy210
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-07-09
                                • 11347

                                #16
                                Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

                                Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limits.

                                * According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
                                Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%

                                So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.
                                Comment
                                • Huh
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-23-11
                                  • 122

                                  #17
                                  I bet one or two games a week. only way I've ever made any money at this
                                  Comment
                                  • FourLengthsClear
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-29-10
                                    • 3808

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                                    Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%

                                    So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.
                                    I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
                                    Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.

                                    To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.
                                    Comment
                                    • JR007
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-21-10
                                      • 5279

                                      #19
                                      think the more plays, would be regression to the mean, difficult at best with the variance, and vig, Paco,s around 57% last I looked,pretty good, think that it is doable for say 100 plays ???
                                      Comment
                                      • thekid667
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 11-09-10
                                        • 468

                                        #20
                                        Not many picks but here ya go

                                        ....
                                        Attached Files
                                        Comment
                                        • smoke a bowl
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-09-09
                                          • 2776

                                          #21
                                          Looks like we have all winners here. Sweeeeeet.
                                          Comment
                                          • Scuba Gooding Jr
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-18-11
                                            • 173

                                            #22
                                            I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.
                                            Comment
                                            • smoke a bowl
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-09-09
                                              • 2776

                                              #23
                                              Another big winner. Sweeeeeeet.
                                              Comment
                                              • big0mar
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-09-09
                                                • 3374

                                                #24
                                                Absolutely
                                                [B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.

                                                [/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]
                                                Comment
                                                • FourLengthsClear
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-29-10
                                                  • 3808

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Scuba Gooding Jr
                                                  I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.
                                                  You are working hard enough, I presume?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FourLengthsClear
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-29-10
                                                    • 3808

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                                    Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

                                                    Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.

                                                    * According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.
                                                    Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

                                                    I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
                                                    Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.

                                                    To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.
                                                    Nobody?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • smoke a bowl
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-09-09
                                                      • 2776

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                                      Nobody?
                                                      Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Ra77er
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 06-20-11
                                                        • 10969

                                                        #28
                                                        $370,200
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FourLengthsClear
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-29-10
                                                          • 3808

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by smoke a bowl
                                                          Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?
                                                          Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • smoke a bowl
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-09-09
                                                            • 2776

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                                                            Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.
                                                            Of course, that was tongue and cheek. I'll just keep grinding my 531(521 on -105 accounts lol) out of 1000 and watch the pennies add up.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Scuba Gooding Jr
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 09-18-11
                                                              • 173

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

                                                              You are working hard enough, I presume?
                                                              And you're not, I presume ?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FourLengthsClear
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-29-10
                                                                • 3808

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Ra77er
                                                                $370,200
                                                                Not too far off.
                                                                It is $470,610.

                                                                Utilising full Kelly (16% of BR) the figure would be USD 125,468,486 albeit you would run into limits long before that, of course. You would reach USD 1 million after 589 plays.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FourLengthsClear
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-29-10
                                                                  • 3808

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Scuba Gooding Jr
                                                                  And you're not, I presume ?
                                                                  Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.

                                                                  Note to self: "Must work harder".
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Scuba Gooding Jr
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 09-18-11
                                                                    • 173

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

                                                                    Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.

                                                                    Note to self: "Must work harder".
                                                                    What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FourLengthsClear
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-29-10
                                                                      • 3808

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Scuba Gooding Jr
                                                                      What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?
                                                                      The rest of your life ideally but in my posts above, I have referred to a sample size of 1000 plays.
                                                                      Comment
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