60% Posters

[FourLengthsClear]

Of course, that was tongue and cheek. I'll just keep grinding my 531(521 on -105 accounts lol) out of 1000 and watch the pennies add up.

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

The rest of your life ideally but in my posts above, I have referred to a sample size of 1000 plays.

Can I ask you why you believe that no one can hit 60 % ?, especially over a sample of only 1000 plays ? Just trying to get an understanding as to why you believe to be a fact.

[Ra77er]

You would be crushing it at 60% lifetime and would probably be limited/tossed from books. 1k into over 400k at only 1000 plays is insane.

[FourLengthsClear]

Can I ask you why you believe that no one can hit 60 % ?, especially over a sample of only 1000 plays ? Just trying to get an understanding as to why you believe to be a fact.

1) NFL markets are incredibly efficient.

2) If you are hitting at 60% you are actually not maximising your return because using the same methods that identify the 60% plays, there would be 5 or 6 times the number of plays which hit at a lower (say 55%) rate. 55% is still highly profitable with a sensible staking plan/money management.

[fowlahranks]

i usually huver around 55-57% playing about 2-5 games per week. just this year. if i count prior years that % will go down quite abit

[Sunde91]

not defining the sample allows for guys like trigga with 30 plays to raise their hand

as many have stated the obvious, 60% over 100s and 100s of plays is not attainable, period

[ebbearsfb1]

Its all about the units won. Percent is junk without good money management

[Sambooka]

you need good money management... you don't always bet the same units, do you??? You risk more units with plays you are more confident with.

I agree with Ebbears

[jmathes]

I am not going to claim that I hit 60% in the NFL over the long haul but my friend and I have built a pretty sweet system using a very effective algorithm that does pretty well. Over the past 5 years and approximately 545 picks later it has hit 59.1%. This year I have posted the picks in a thread which is currently hitting 60% over 120 picks. The spreadsheet picks mostly ATS and sometimes I use certain weights to determine team totals as well. Now even though the spreadsheet has heavier leans towards picks I have found that flat betting is by far the most beneficial betting method for us. There are some flaws in the system but this is something that is a work in progress and will only get better.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1260411-jmathes-2011-12-nfl-picks-p2.html#post12647265

If anyone in here would like to challenge that hitting 59% cannot be attained year in and year out I would be willing to place a very large point/money wager on this. The picks will be posted until the rest of the season and next year as well.

[JR007]

thanks for the feedback guys, recommend you go over to the other JR's thread for 60% guaranteed winnersin multiple sports no-less

[Emily_Haines]

Never saw a thread where so many people were hitting 55%+ in NFL

It's simply amazing the books can survive with so many winners!!!!!!!!!!!

[Emily_Haines]

thanks for the feedback guys, recommend you go over to the other JR's thread for 60% guaranteed winnersin multiple sports no-less

Who knew winning would be this easy.

[Luv2Play2]

but i have a 60% winner here.. 50% of the forum responded to another useless thread..

[Luv2Play2]

yes sir you can hit 58%

Its all about the units won. Percent is junk without good money management

and lose your F'nn azz

[NYSportsGuy210]

I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.

To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.

Yea that's where the extra $180 came on top.

[suicidekings]

Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%. Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts. * According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.

60% is an unnecessarily lofty goal.

For a $1000 original bankroll, winning 55% @ -110 and risking 5.5% per play (via full Kelly), on average you would double your money after 231 plays. After 500 plays, you've increased your bankroll to $4500. After 1000 plays, you'd have accumulated almost $20,000 in profit.

Make it Half Kelly and you'd double it after 460 plays and have a $4500 bankroll after 1000 plays. Still very impressive, and much more attainable than 60%, however I think the problem with either approach for the vast majority of bettors is the notion of having to make 1000 bets in the first place... If you only bet NFL, there are 256 regular season games plus 11 playoff games. There's maybe 900 college FBS games (including games vs FCS opponents and bowl games), so call it around 1200 football games a year. I would guess that an average person putting in the time to handicap in their free time could bet 15% of those games with confidence. Call it ~10 games a week between NFL & NCAAF and you're looking at 5+ years to make 1000 bets. Betting more games than that, and I would think the winning percentage would drop quite a bit.

Branch out into other sports and you significantly increase the time required to handicap, but also give yourself more opportunities with 1230 NBA games in a regular season, over 5500 NCAAB games, 2430 MLB games, 1230 NHL games. Someone that puts in the time to handicap multiple sports could make 2000+ plays a year, but for most bettors we're probably talking about half-assing the research and extending outside their comfort zone in the pursuit of action. Chasing losses, varying bet sizes, forcing plays on perceived advantage instead of staying objective and disciplined.

So I think there are probably a lot of SBR members that are capable of being highly profitable in terms of game selection when they're following good work habits, but the vast majority of them derail themselves with bad money management and unreasonable expectations for ROI and time frame.

The thing that makes the NFL so tough to beat is the small number of opportunities available (267 games) and the amount of attention given to every game by the betting masses, creating the ridiculously efficient market. Long term success would be much more attainable if bettors spent more time on other sports.

[FourLengthsClear]

60% is an unnecessarily lofty goal.

For a $1000 original bankroll, winning 55% @ -110 and risking 5.5% per play (via full Kelly), on average you would double your money after 231 plays. After 500 plays, you've increased your bankroll to $4500. After 1000 plays, you'd have accumulated almost $20,000 in profit.

Make it Half Kelly and you'd double it after 460 plays and have a $4500 bankroll after 1000 plays. Still very impressive, and much more attainable than 60%, however I think the problem with either approach for the vast majority of bettors is the notion of having to make 1000 bets in the first place... If you only bet NFL, there are 256 regular season games plus 11 playoff games. There's maybe 900 college FBS games (including games vs FCS opponents and bowl games), so call it around 1200 football games a year. I would guess that an average person putting in the time to handicap in their free time could bet 15% of those games with confidence. Call it ~10 games a week between NFL & NCAAF and you're looking at 5+ years to make 1000 bets. Betting more games than that, and I would think the winning percentage would drop quite a bit.

Branch out into other sports and you significantly increase the time required to handicap, but also give yourself more opportunities with 1230 NBA games in a regular season, over 5500 NCAAB games, 2430 MLB games, 1230 NHL games. Someone that puts in the time to handicap multiple sports could make 2000+ plays a year, but for most bettors we're probably talking about half-assing the research and extending outside their comfort zone in the pursuit of action. Chasing losses, varying bet sizes, forcing plays on perceived advantage instead of staying objective and disciplined.

So I think there are probably a lot of SBR members that are capable of being highly profitable in terms of game selection when they're following good work habits, but the vast majority of them derail themselves with bad money management and unreasonable expectations for ROI and time frame.

The thing that makes the NFL so tough to beat is the small number of opportunities available (267 games) and the amount of attention given to every game by the betting masses, creating the ridiculously efficient market. Long term success would be much more attainable if bettors spent more time on other sports.

Fully agree.

[JR007]

but i have a 60% winner here.. 50% of the forum responded to another useless thread..

CLOWN, ONLY BROACHED THE SUBJECT OF 60% WINNERS BECAUSE A TOUT IN THIS FORUM, IS CLAIMING IT
SK IS RIGHT...SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, EFFICIENT MARKET (NFL), BETTER OPPORTUNITIES EXIST IN OTHER SPORTS, WITH MANY MORE GAMES, GOING OFF DAILY WITH SOFT LINES

OPPORTUNITIES ARE THERE EVERYDAY ON THE odds BOARD, CHALLENGE IS READING THEM CORRECTLY

[xpo276]

the beat the prick contest has quite a few people with 60% or higher

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<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TH style="WIDTH: 45px" class=alignLeft>Rank</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 145px" class=alignLeft>Name</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 70px" class=alignCenter>Record</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 70px" class=alignRight>Win Percent</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 50px" class=alignCenter>Streak</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 50px" class=alignCenter>Action</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 70px" class=alignCenter>Units</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 60px" class=alignCenter>Pending</TH></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt0><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>1</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_448>sportsfun </TD><TD class=alignCenter>36-13-0</TD><TD class=alignRight>73.47 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L 1</TD><TD class=alignCenter>232.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+29.50</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt1><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>2</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_81523>skers11 </TD><TD class=alignCenter>35-17-0</TD><TD class=alignRight>67.31 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W 2</TD><TD class=alignCenter>115.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+27.20</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt0><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>3</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_155521>Sanibel </TD><TD class=alignCenter>37-14-1</TD><TD class=alignRight>72.55 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L 1</TD><TD class=alignCenter>229.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+26.20</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt1><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>4</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_97292>slapster33 </TD><TD class=alignCenter>35-16-1</TD><TD class=alignRight>68.63 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W 2</TD><TD class=alignCenter>270.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+26.20</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt0><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>5</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_108333>Gruntworker </TD><TD class=alignCenter>33-18-1</TD><TD class=alignRight>64.71 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L 1</TD><TD class=alignCenter>244.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+24.10</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt1><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>6</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_722>presley177 </TD><TD class=alignCenter>35-17-0</TD><TD class=alignRight>67.31 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W 3</TD><TD class=alignCenter>218.0</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+23.30</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt0><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>7</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_31529>chopperocker </TD><TD class=alignCenter>35-15-2</TD><TD class=alignRight>70.00 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W 3</TD><TD class=alignCenter>260.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+22.20</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt1><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>8</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_1312>jpowderly </TD><TD class=alignCenter>33-18-1</TD><TD class=alignRight>64.71 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L 1</TD><TD class=alignCenter>211.5</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+22.10</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt0><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>9</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_38634>rfr3sh </TD><TD class=alignCenter>35-15-2</TD><TD class=alignRight>70.00 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L 1</TD><TD class=alignCenter>186.0</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+21.10</TD><TD class=alignCenter>- </TD></TR><TR class=pick_tableAlt1><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px" class=alignRight>10</TD><TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 3px" id=contestMemberHolder_1870>Augustus </TD><TD class=alignCenter>33-19-0</TD><TD class=alignRight>63.46 %</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W 2</TD><TD class=alignCenter>166.0</TD><TD class=alignCenter>+20.90</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[suicidekings]

the beat the prick contest has quite a few people with 60% or higher

Again... the issue is sample size. If someone is hitting 70% through 50 games, then that's a hell of a run that they should be proud of. Let's see them do it through 500 games.

[Ernie Mccracken]

60% over the long term is way, way out on the bell curve. Like, lots of standard deviations away from the median (i.e. impossible) line of the curve.

The failed logic that says 60% ain't that far away from 45% or 50% is monumentally flawed and inconsistent with basic statistics. Books love it, though.

[ManBearPig]

Picking a ATS for a record of 559-441 is about a 56% win rate over 1000 plays. Many would believe they can do this easily but would be surprised to know that this is considered a 1 in 10,000 rare event .

[Pick'nParlays]

Im hitting it

[JR007]

Lets see where they are at the end of the season, ......my guess is somewhere around 80 plays, the percentages, would have to come down somewhat, ........