TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>BCS</th><th>Vegas Rankings</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>South Carolina</td><td>12</td><td>t-20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Penn State</td><td>21</td><td>29</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas State</td><td>11</td><td>t-17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>5</td><td>11</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston</td><td>6</td><td>12</td></tr></tbody></table>
To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Week 14 Vegas College Football Rankings:
Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>LSU</td><td>4.5</td><td>100</td><td>2.5</td><td>102.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>Alabama</td><td>5</td><td>98</td><td>1.5</td><td>99.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Oklahoma St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>94.5</td><td>1</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Oregon</td><td>5</td><td>94</td><td>1.5</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>4.5</td><td>94</td><td>0.5</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Stanford</td><td>4</td><td>93.5</td><td>1</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>4.5</td><td>93</td><td>1</td><td>94</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Boise St.</td><td>5</td><td>91</td><td>1</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>Georgia</td><td>4</td><td>90</td><td>0.5</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>USC</td><td>3.5</td><td>89.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>4.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>12</td><td>Houston</td><td>4</td><td>88.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>13</td><td>Arkansas</td><td>4</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>14</td><td>TCU</td><td>4</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Michigan St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>85.5</td><td>0</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Michigan</td><td>3.5</td><td>85.5</td><td>0</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Kansas St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Florida St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Missouri</td><td>3.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>S. Carolina</td><td>3.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>22</td><td>Texas</td><td>4</td><td>83.5</td><td>0</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Baylor</td><td>3</td><td>82.5</td><td>0</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>3.5</td><td>82.5</td><td>0</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Nebraska</td><td>4</td><td>81.5</td><td>0</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Clemson</td><td>4.5</td><td>81.5</td><td>0</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>W. Virginia</td><td>3.5</td><td>81</td><td>0</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Ohio St.</td><td>4.5</td><td>80.5</td><td>0</td><td>80.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>29</td><td>Penn St.</td><td>4</td><td>80</td><td>-1.5</td><td>78.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>So. Miss.</td><td>3.5</td><td>78.5</td><td>0</td><td>78.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>3.5</td><td>78</td><td>0</td><td>78</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-32</td><td>Tulsa</td><td>3</td><td>77.5</td><td>0</td><td>77.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-32</td><td>Utah</td><td>3</td><td>77.5</td><td>0</td><td>77.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>34</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>3.5</td><td>77</td><td>0</td><td>77</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>35</td><td>Miami (Fla.)</td><td>3</td><td>76.5</td><td>0</td><td>76.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>36</td><td>Florida</td><td>4.5</td><td>76</td><td>0</td><td>76</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-37</td><td>Arizona St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>75.5</td><td>0</td><td>75.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-37</td><td>Auburn</td><td>4</td><td>75.5</td><td>0</td><td>75.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>39</td><td>BYU</td><td>3.5</td><td>75</td><td>0</td><td>75</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>40</td><td>Cal</td><td>3</td><td>74.5</td><td>0</td><td>74.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Virginia Tech Hokies
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Utah Utes
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Texas A&M Aggies
Arkansas Razorbacks
Clemson Tigers
Projected Week 14 spreads
We projected the Week 14 college football spreads using point-spread power and projected Week 14 margin of victory using true power. The table below compares current spreads, showing you where possible value may exist.
Projected Week 14 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home</th><th>Road</th><th>Open</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Georgia*</td><td>LSU</td><td>+12</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Oklahoma St.</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>-3.5</td><td>-4</td><td>-4.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Tech**</td><td>Clemson</td><td>-7</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston</td><td>So. Mississippi</td><td>-14</td><td>-14</td><td>-15.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin**</td><td>Michigan St.</td><td>-10</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor***</td><td>Texas</td><td>NL</td><td>-2</td><td>-2</td></tr></tbody></table>
* Georgia gets two points for home field in SEC championship
** Neutral field
*** Assuming Robert Griffin III will play
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>BCS</th><th>Vegas Rankings</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>South Carolina</td><td>12</td><td>t-20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Penn State</td><td>21</td><td>29</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas State</td><td>11</td><td>t-17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>5</td><td>11</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston</td><td>6</td><td>12</td></tr></tbody></table>
To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Week 14 Vegas College Football Rankings:
Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>LSU</td><td>4.5</td><td>100</td><td>2.5</td><td>102.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>Alabama</td><td>5</td><td>98</td><td>1.5</td><td>99.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Oklahoma St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>94.5</td><td>1</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Oregon</td><td>5</td><td>94</td><td>1.5</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>4.5</td><td>94</td><td>0.5</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Stanford</td><td>4</td><td>93.5</td><td>1</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>4.5</td><td>93</td><td>1</td><td>94</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Boise St.</td><td>5</td><td>91</td><td>1</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>Georgia</td><td>4</td><td>90</td><td>0.5</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>10</td><td>USC</td><td>3.5</td><td>89.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>4.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>12</td><td>Houston</td><td>4</td><td>88.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>13</td><td>Arkansas</td><td>4</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>14</td><td>TCU</td><td>4</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Michigan St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>85.5</td><td>0</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Michigan</td><td>3.5</td><td>85.5</td><td>0</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Kansas St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-17</td><td>Florida St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Missouri</td><td>3.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>S. Carolina</td><td>3.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>22</td><td>Texas</td><td>4</td><td>83.5</td><td>0</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Baylor</td><td>3</td><td>82.5</td><td>0</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>3.5</td><td>82.5</td><td>0</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Nebraska</td><td>4</td><td>81.5</td><td>0</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Clemson</td><td>4.5</td><td>81.5</td><td>0</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>W. Virginia</td><td>3.5</td><td>81</td><td>0</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Ohio St.</td><td>4.5</td><td>80.5</td><td>0</td><td>80.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>29</td><td>Penn St.</td><td>4</td><td>80</td><td>-1.5</td><td>78.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>So. Miss.</td><td>3.5</td><td>78.5</td><td>0</td><td>78.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>3.5</td><td>78</td><td>0</td><td>78</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-32</td><td>Tulsa</td><td>3</td><td>77.5</td><td>0</td><td>77.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-32</td><td>Utah</td><td>3</td><td>77.5</td><td>0</td><td>77.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>34</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>3.5</td><td>77</td><td>0</td><td>77</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>35</td><td>Miami (Fla.)</td><td>3</td><td>76.5</td><td>0</td><td>76.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>36</td><td>Florida</td><td>4.5</td><td>76</td><td>0</td><td>76</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-37</td><td>Arizona St.</td><td>3.5</td><td>75.5</td><td>0</td><td>75.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-37</td><td>Auburn</td><td>4</td><td>75.5</td><td>0</td><td>75.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>39</td><td>BYU</td><td>3.5</td><td>75</td><td>0</td><td>75</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>40</td><td>Cal</td><td>3</td><td>74.5</td><td>0</td><td>74.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Virginia Tech Hokies
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Utah Utes
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Texas A&M Aggies
Arkansas Razorbacks
Clemson Tigers
Projected Week 14 spreads
We projected the Week 14 college football spreads using point-spread power and projected Week 14 margin of victory using true power. The table below compares current spreads, showing you where possible value may exist.
Projected Week 14 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home</th><th>Road</th><th>Open</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Georgia*</td><td>LSU</td><td>+12</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Oklahoma St.</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>-3.5</td><td>-4</td><td>-4.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Tech**</td><td>Clemson</td><td>-7</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston</td><td>So. Mississippi</td><td>-14</td><td>-14</td><td>-15.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin**</td><td>Michigan St.</td><td>-10</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor***</td><td>Texas</td><td>NL</td><td>-2</td><td>-2</td></tr></tbody></table>
* Georgia gets two points for home field in SEC championship
** Neutral field
*** Assuming Robert Griffin III will play
