I know a few of you wanted to see these so here they are. 
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans
Here are the Week 13 NFL Vegas Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 13 Vegas NFL Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>2</td><td>102</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>97</td><td>2</td><td>99</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>3.5</td><td>96</td><td>0</td><td>96</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>2.5</td><td>95.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>97</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3</td><td>95.5</td><td>0</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>94.5</td><td>0</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>93.5</td><td>1</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>93</td><td>0</td><td>93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>14</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>2</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>2.5</td><td>90</td><td>-1</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>-2</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>18</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>19</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>88.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>22</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3.5</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>2.5</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>-0.5</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-26</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-26</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-28</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-28</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>83</td><td>-0.5</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>-0.5</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>2</td><td>79.5</td><td>-1</td><td>78.5
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Michael Vick (Eagles): 1.5 points</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Adrian Peterson (Vikings): 1 point</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): no adjustment </td></tr></tbody></table>
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<table style="WIDTH: 290px"><thead><tr><th>Wins</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>8 or more</td><td>Packers (1)</td><td>Texans (t-15)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7 or 6 wins</td><td>Cowboys (7)</td><td>Broncos (19)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5 or 4 Wins</td><td>Eagles (t-9)</td><td>Chiefs (t-28)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3 or less</td><td>Dolphins (t-15)</td><td>Colts (32)</td></tr></tbody></table>
All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 3-8 SU but 6-4-1 ATS; the Dallas Cowboys are 7-4 SU but only 4-6-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, no team is close to the Packers, while Vegas isn't impressed with the Denver Broncos' recent winning ways.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 13 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the 49ers, Raiders, Ravens and more.
Projected Week 13 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home Team</th><th>Road Team</th><th>Current</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles*</td><td>3</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td><td>-7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>-3</td><td>-1</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>-7</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>6.5</td><td>8.5</td><td>8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston Texans</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>2.5</td><td>PK</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>-3</td><td>-3.5</td><td>-3.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>-7</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Minnesota Vikings*</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>PK</td><td>0.5</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-15.5</td><td>-16</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>4.5</td><td>5</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New York Giants</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>6.5</td><td>6</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New England Patriots</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>-21</td><td>-21</td><td>-24</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).</td></tr></tbody></table>
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans
Here are the Week 13 NFL Vegas Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 13 Vegas NFL Rankings
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>2</td><td>102</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>97</td><td>2</td><td>99</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>3.5</td><td>96</td><td>0</td><td>96</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>2.5</td><td>95.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>97</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-4</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3</td><td>95.5</td><td>0</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>94.5</td><td>0</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>93.5</td><td>1</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>93</td><td>0</td><td>93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>2.5</td><td>92</td><td>0</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>11</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>14</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>2</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>2.5</td><td>90</td><td>-1</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-15</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>-2</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>18</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>19</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>88.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-20</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>22</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3.5</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>2.5</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>0</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-23</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>86</td><td>-0.5</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-26</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-26</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-28</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-28</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>2.5</td><td>84.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>30</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>83</td><td>-0.5</td><td>82.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>-0.5</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>2</td><td>79.5</td><td>-1</td><td>78.5
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Michael Vick (Eagles): 1.5 points</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Adrian Peterson (Vikings): 1 point</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): no adjustment </td></tr></tbody></table>
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<table style="WIDTH: 290px"><thead><tr><th>Wins</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>8 or more</td><td>Packers (1)</td><td>Texans (t-15)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7 or 6 wins</td><td>Cowboys (7)</td><td>Broncos (19)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5 or 4 Wins</td><td>Eagles (t-9)</td><td>Chiefs (t-28)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3 or less</td><td>Dolphins (t-15)</td><td>Colts (32)</td></tr></tbody></table>
All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 3-8 SU but 6-4-1 ATS; the Dallas Cowboys are 7-4 SU but only 4-6-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, no team is close to the Packers, while Vegas isn't impressed with the Denver Broncos' recent winning ways.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 13 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the 49ers, Raiders, Ravens and more.
Projected Week 13 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home Team</th><th>Road Team</th><th>Current</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles*</td><td>3</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td><td>-7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>-3</td><td>-1</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>-7</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>6.5</td><td>8.5</td><td>8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Houston Texans</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>2.5</td><td>PK</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>-3</td><td>-3.5</td><td>-3.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>-7</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Minnesota Vikings*</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>PK</td><td>0.5</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-15.5</td><td>-16</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>4.5</td><td>5</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New York Giants</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>6.5</td><td>6</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New England Patriots</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>-21</td><td>-21</td><td>-24</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="5">*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).</td></tr></tbody></table>
