Bama +1 vs. LSU (Early Nat Champ Line)

[Sunde91]

5D. also +1.5 -101 pinnacle

LSU team of destiny to finish the run perfectly in the SuperDome 80 miles from campus
or
Saban won't lose to Miles twice in 2 months

[cant call it]

bama ML

[itchypickle]

ROLL TIDE!!! On it!

[FourLengthsClear]

Coin flip.

[Kadinni]

Tough game, but ill take bama

[FindTheLock]

take the under

[Big Bear]

Bama will get stomped on a neutral field

[Sunde91]

+2 now

lets go +3 and do another herp derp in this matchup like hanging +6 the last time

[cant call it]

Start an lsu lock thread maybe people will dump their whole BR on it

[CBASS]

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[Rod1010]

no point in betting this game

[yD]

Funny how it actually helped Bama to lose. They don't have to play and risk a loss in the SEC Championship game and history shows in the rematch of the two best teams, the team that lost will win. Same with the NFL and the Super Bowl. To beat a team of that caliber twice is tough.

[BookiesBernanke]

LSU beat Bama in Alabama
They will definitely beat them in LA

All Alabama players did after the game was talk about how they were better but still lost at HOME

[LT Profits]

I never use the L*** word, but LSU at anything less than -3 is shall we say Play of the Year material.

[LT Profits]

I never use the L*** word, but LSU at anything less than -3 is shall we say Play of the Year material.

Translation for me = maybe 6% of bankroll.

[LT Profits]

Coin flip.

I rarely disagree with you but I do here (as long as LSU stays 2.5 or less)

[RonPaul2008]

LSU is going to destroy Alabama

[Sunde91]

LSU would be the play against anyone other than Saban

[CBASS]

LSU would be the play against anyone other than Saban

With all due respect Sunde, but that is exactly why I like LSU in this game. It gives Miles a chance to finally prove his worth against LSU's former coach. You know Miles is going to have a hell of a gameplan prepared. This is his one chance to crawl out from Saban's shadow that has been hanging over him for so long at LSU. Not to mention, the game is being played about 75 miles from LSU campus. Also, 90% of LSU's roster is from Louisiana and have dreamed of this opportunity since they were little kids. An image of Bama hoisting that trophy in their home state will be all the motivation those LSU players need. Past history also shows that LSU plays at their highest level under these circumstances as well. If one had to argue Bama for the win, it would be this: LSU's qb's having a difficult time and turning the ball over. Whether it be int's or fumbles from bad option pitches. That is certainly a possibility.


I was trying to post a copy of my LSU futures ticket. Played in July at 100 to win 1500. So I really have no need in betting this game, but I do like LSU.

[zsr]

Alabama should of won the last one with ease, 3 or 4 missed kicks, dumb trick play that ruined a drive inside the 20..alabama ML

[zsr]

Cbass your not gonna hedge with +money on Alabama?

[LT Profits]

Cbass your not gonna hedge with +money on Alabama?

It was only a 100 bet, so why bother? Then again, he may have a different mindset than I do. I only hedge if I make a bet with the original INTENTION of hedging later on. On a small bet like this, I wouldn't hedge unless something has changed since I made the bet that now makes me no longer think it is +EV.

[zsr]

It was only a 100 bet, so why bother? Then again, he may have a different mindset than I do. I only hedge if I make a bet with the original INTENTION of hedging later on. On a small bet like this, I wouldn't hedge unless something has changed since I made the bet that now makes me no longer think it is +EV.

Good point. I just always hedge in a situation like that to guarantee profit, hard enough to make money at this, tough to pass up sure money. I see where your coming from though.

[LT Profits]

Good point. I just always hedge in a situation like that to guarantee profit, hard enough to make money at this, tough to pass up sure money. I see where your coming from though.

I know the EG guys will disagree with me, but I thing hedging a +EV position with a -EV hedge is a bad move in the long run.

[CBASS]

I will be placing a straight wager on LSU, but will wait for more action to come in on Bama. I really believe the line will drop considerably as the game gets near.

[suicidekings]

I know the EG guys will disagree with me, but I thing hedging a +EV position with a -EV hedge is a bad move in the long run.

It's entirely possible a live line or a 2H line will provide a stellar opportunity to hedge even if the game remains a 1 possession game. At the moment, 100/1500 on LSU is a golden ticket and a hedge would be premature.

[FindTheLock]

I would not feel confident placing a bet on either side. This is the only season I won't be able to predict the national champion before hand. Every other season all you had to do was bet on the SEC...

[LT Profits]

I would not feel confident placing a bet on either side. This is the only season I won't be able to predict the national champion before hand. Every other season all you had to do was bet on the SEC...

I guess I am in the minority then, I think that LSU is clearly the better team. I will say though that I'd prefer Lee at QB over Jefferson, but I still like LSU nonetheless.

[FindTheLock]

I am just nervous about Alabama and their run game. LSU has a sick defense, but so does Alabama. I give that category a push. The difference here is the special teams. That goes to LSU, but can bama really keep missing all of those FG's? I wouldn't want to bet on that. Gun to my head I pick LSU. I picked them at the beginning of the season, so I am sticking with my pick.

[CBASS]

I guess I am in the minority then, I think that LSU is clearly the better team. I will say though that I'd prefer Lee at QB over Jefferson, but I still like LSU nonetheless.

Agreed. I will say this, Lee is going to have to play a considerable amount of time for LSU to win. He doesn't have to play mistake free necessarily, but he cannot turn the ball over in the red zone. LSU will need his passing game to be effective for them to win. Tigers cannot afford to put the game squarely on Jefferson's shoulders by running the option with a play action pass mixed in. Bama will be more than ready for the option game this time around.

[FourLengthsClear]

I rarely disagree with you but I do here (as long as LSU stays 2.5 or less)

Fair enough and BOL. I can't/don't model NCAAF and just see two teams that are almost mirror images of each other. LSU has an edge on special teams, Bama has a marginally better pass rush.

If you offered me +2 or +2.5 on either team, I would take it.

[TheAntFather]

I'll take LSU -1. The game is being played in Louisiana.

[TheAntFather]

This would actually be a good spot to unload on LSU.

[dontazeme1]

With all due respect Sunde, but that is exactly why I like LSU in this game. It gives Miles a chance to finally prove his worth against LSU's former coach. You know Miles is going to have a hell of a gameplan prepared. This is his one chance to crawl out from Saban's shadow that has been hanging over him for so long at LSU. Not to mention, the game is being played about 75 miles from LSU campus. Also, 90% of LSU's roster is from Louisiana and have dreamed of this opportunity since they were little kids. An image of Bama hoisting that trophy in their home state will be all the motivation those LSU players need. Past history also shows that LSU plays at their highest level under these circumstances as well. If one had to argue Bama for the win, it would be this: LSU's qb's having a difficult time and turning the ball over. Whether it be int's or fumbles from bad option pitches. That is certainly a possibility. I was trying to post a copy of my LSU futures ticket. Played in July at 100 to win 1500. So I really have no need in betting this game, but I do like LSU.

lol thatd be funny as hell if u lost, thinkin all year u had it in the bank

[Bennett]

Funny how everyone says, "Bama missed this; played bad, etc". It's not like LSU didn't make mistakes either. Two picks on their side of the 50, Randle dropping a TD pass, penalties, etc.

And people forget this. Jefferson hadn't played all year. Then he's called to get off the bench in his first action of the year... and ugly or not, he got it done. And there is the difference and why I think LSU can beat them again.... the ability to run the option.

Jefferson hurt them with the option coming off the bench; and GA Southern ran for 300 plus yards running it; it gives Bama problems.

And the FG's... In college you can't make a living kicking 45 + FG's. People forget the negative plays LSU def made pushing them back to make the kicks that long anyway.

A running Jefferson will be a big plus in a rematch. Not to mention now at home; and a very fast team on turf... just saying..