Who here gambles in hope to become rich?

[Nicky Santoro]

if i wanted to gamble i'd go to the casino and play craps

fiver,

alot of people here would love to be able to gamble everyday and end up breaking even. we'd feel like winners. breaking even in gambling is like winning.. if you can break even and not lose, you are a pro..

durito,

casino doesn't have the same flavor as sports. if you love sports, nothing beats gambling on it. and some people hate sports, and are at the casino everyday.. we are as sick as them...there is no diff between the casino gambler who spends everyday at the casino, AND us sports gamblers who spend 18 hrs a day at sbr and gamble every night.

we are on the same level..

DURITO, IT'S A SICKNESS...not for everyone in the world that gambles,, but for 99.4% of the gambling population. we gamble cause we are sick.. it's a fukkin rush.. we are no different than the alcoholic who sits in a bar all day long for 17 hrs a day drinking.. whether you want to believe this or not.. .. this is the truth.

[durito]

So quit.

I'm an alcoholic and I quit drinking.

[ryanXL977]

nobody who gambles will ever become rich
ever
you can make some cash but you cant become rich bc its jus not possible to get over 55% of games

[LT Profits]

You don't need 55% to make money. This is where volume comes in.

[ryanXL977]

you need discipline and cant chase, not even once

[Nicky Santoro]

i will give any poster at sbr 500 bucks, to their 100 bucks (5-1), that you won't show a profit over 500 bets..

you can bet dogs, favs, m.l's, ncaa, totals,.. whatever..

we go by OLY closing line..


I BET NO ONE WILL TAKE MY OFFER, CAUSE YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO DO IT.

i will put my money up front with sbr john..

[ryanXL977]

can i make 499 $1 bets and one $300 bet?

[hackattack]

Nicky's the best.
Backs his shit up the proper way....with money.

[donjuan]

you need discipline and cant chase, not even once

OMG so hard!!!!!!!!!!

[durito]

i will give any poster at sbr 500 bucks, to their 100 bucks (5-1), that you won't show a profit over 500 bets..

you can bet dogs, favs, m.l's, ncaa, totals,.. whatever..

we go by OLY closing line..


I BET NO ONE WILL TAKE MY OFFER, CAUSE YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO DO IT.

i will put my money up front with sbr john..

Who the **** wants to bet into the greek's closing line.

[LT Profits]

i will give any poster at sbr 500 bucks, to their 100 bucks (5-1), that you won't show a profit over 500 bets..

you can bet dogs, favs, m.l's, ncaa, totals,.. whatever..

we go by OLY closing line..


I BET NO ONE WILL TAKE MY OFFER, CAUSE YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO DO IT.

i will put my money up front with sbr john..

I was going to take you up on it until you threw in Greek wrench. If you revise grading to the line I get at the book I bet it at, I am game.

[durito]

nobody who gambles will ever become rich
ever
you can make some cash but you cant become rich bc its jus not possible to get over 55% of games

Making 2,000 bets a year at -110 at just 54% chance of winning each, you will turn a $5,000 bankroll into an expected $182,227,400 bankroll ($963,266 median roll) after just 5 years by betting full kelly.

[Nicky Santoro]

Who the **** wants to bet into the greek's closing line.

alright fine, i will give you pinny's closing lines, however, it goes down to 3-1 now.. cause of the 8 to 10 cent line, 3-1 should still be easy for you big shots.

i have to use the closing line for sake of argument. hey, i had it at +124, not +114, you know what i mean.. this way, it's written in stone.

[ryanXL977]

Making 2,000 bets a year at -110 at just 54% chance of winning each, you will turn a $5,000 bankroll into an expected $182,227,400 bankroll ($963,266 median roll) after just 5 years by betting full kelly.

and how much must each bet risk?

[durito]

and how much must each bet risk?

3.4%

[durito]

alright fine, i will give you pinny's closing lines, however, it goes down to 3-1 now.. cause of the 8 to 10 cent line, 3-1 should still be easy for you big shots.

i have to use the closing line for sake of argument. hey, i had it at +124, not +114, you know what i mean.. this way, it's written in stone.

Are you ****ing kidding me? Pinny's closing line is even harder.

That's great for the sake of your argument, but I know quite well I can't beat pinny's closing line in most sports.

Can I bet Colombian soccer?

[ryanXL977]

so if i bet $200 per game and bet 8 bets a day and win 54% of them at -110 (thats hte hard part), i will end up at 180 million? you sure about that

[Nicky Santoro]

Are you ****ing kidding me? Pinny's closing line is even harder.

That's great for the sake of your argument, but I know quite well I can't beat pinny's closing line in most sports.

Can I bet Colombian soccer?

who's closing line you want to use?

[ryanXL977]

i dont htink there are even 8 -110 lines a day to bet.

[Nicky Santoro]

so if i bet $200 per game and bet 8 bets a day and win 54% of them at -110 (thats hte hard part), i will end up at 180 million? you sure about that

ryan

don't waste your time with durito. he has no idea what he is talking about..

oh yea, and if i hit 76% of a 10k bankroll, i will win 3.56 million per year.. easy to say, but to do it, it's a diff ball game..

[durito]

who's closing line you want to use?

I'm not particularly interested in such a challenge at all.

My point is that Pinnacles closing line is the most efficient line you will find (ie hardest to beat). You aren't going to find me placing bets there right before the game, unless it's some off the wall sport with small limits.

[durito]

so if i bet $200 per game and bet 8 bets a day and win 54% of them at -110 (thats hte hard part), i will end up at 180 million? you sure about that

You bet 3.4% of your bankroll.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx

[hackattack]

so if i bet $200 per game and bet 8 bets a day and win 54% of them at -110 (thats hte hard part), i will end up at 180 million? you sure about that

[fiveteamer]

how do you adjust that 54% for baseball? -110 is fine for football, basketball ect..

[ryanXL977]

yes, how do you adjust -110 for mlb
**** run lines

[durito]

If your edge is still 3.0909% (54% at -110), you bet to win 3.0909%.

[hackattack]

Don't tell me you guys believe this crap?
Durito, I am sure you have gambled for more than 5 years...where is your $180 million?

[ryanXL977]

nobody can hit 54% of equal -110s over 3 years
nobody
hence vegas is made of gold and diamonds and i have 67 dollars and a one eyed jack russell terrier and a ps3 to my name

ian kinsler is the man

[LT Profits]

As usual, durito is 100% right and you guys are failing to see it.

Ryan, you are not betting $200 per game, you are betting 3.4% of bankroll adjusted for each W/L. And by simply plugging 10,000 series into the calculator (5 years x 2,000 plays per), you will indeed get durito's number at full kelly.

[durito]

The point of the post was to show how ridiculous a statement it is that one can't get rich gambling because you cannot hit over 55%.

Nowhere in this thread (or anywhere else) have I said that I hit 54%, 53%, 78%, or that I bet full kelly.

Obviously (well perhaps) if one is able to identify sufficient #'s of +EV bets, growing one's bankroll using kelly or some fraction of is quite easy and it will grow quite large. At this point you have to deal with limits sufficient that growing one's bankroll infinitely is impossible -- nevertheless, that's a good problem to have.

[ryanXL977]

i didnt say durito was wrong, i said there is nobody, in the world,. who can hit 54% at 3.4% over 3 years
nobody

[durito]

what about 54% at 1.86556686535%?

[Nicky Santoro]

you guys make me laugh. sure if a guy hits 54%, he can make 380k a year.. we know that. but how many people do this in gambling? but how many make 380k a year in gambling. it's so freakin easy to say all this..

20 yrs ago, i decided to give it a shot at being a real estate agent. i was told, if i sell one house a week, i can make close to 1 million a yr.. wow, sounds easy.. with my smooth talking and all, i can do it..

guess what, i sold 0 houses in 9 months..


same thing here.. yeah, if you hit 54%, you can become rich.. yeah.. lol..

the only tough part is what happens when you dont hit 54% and you hit 50%.. you are BROKE.. it's so easy to say.. 54%.. but doing it over a lifetime is tough..

you guys make me laugh..

[SlappyWhite]

I gamble to have extra money to buy frilly crap I wouldn't spend hard earned cash on...does that even make sense?

I will check my spreadsheet, I am pretty sure I am over 54% on everything but hockey for the last year...I don't want to talk about what hockey did to me. But I was able to quadruple my bankroll, then again I don't play alot of games probably less then 200 games a year, I also WD about half my winnings so in the end I only doubled my bankroll for this years play. I also went totally bust the year before, so if you expand me to a life time of gambling I am probably at 52.5% winning. Which is about even. In the end you have to have a time frame to measure in to determine if you are a winner or loser.

[smitch124]

Nicky, I'm not like that (degenerate style) at all. I bet such a small percentage of my bankroll on each play that I don't even get jazzed about 1 or 2 games. In fact I saw a line I liked last night on one of these afternoon games and bet it at 1 unit.

This morning I forgot I had even bet it, and just realized now that I had money on it. No big deal just one more play where I felt I had a good line.