Are Basic Strategy / "Wong" Teasers DEAD?

[LT Profits]

Focus on the ROI of the teaser, not just the price of a given leg in the teaser.

Its perfectly fine at times to use sides < -241

True but his statement is still correct (unless he plays somewhere that pays a bogus -120 on 2-team, 6-points).

[jolmscheid]

True but his statement is still correct (unless he plays somewhere that pays a bogus -120 on 2-team, 6-points).

So for instance, Green Bay has a moneyline of -265 against Detroit...so doing a 6 point tease down to -.5 or a pk would be a positive EV leg correct?

[jolmscheid]

Also, is teasing the "juiced-side" of games considered positive EV? For instance, if 5 Dimes has a side at -125 for instance, isn't it a good idea to tease that side since you still get the same odds on the teaser?

[BiGTonyHAHA]

5d does not tease the reduced juice they tease the given number at the inflated ml.

[prop]

So for instance, Green Bay has a moneyline of -265 against Detroit...so doing a 6 point tease down to -.5 or a pk would be a positive EV leg correct?

It's mind boggling how simple the math is and how many people mess this up. Your question can not be answered because you'd state the teaser odds you're getting and you also say the the moneyline is -265 but where is it -265 and what is the underdog line?

Okay so @ Pinnacle I'm seeing -265 / +235
So risk/return = implied probability.
@-265 Risk $2.65 returns $3.65 ($2.65 stake +$1.00 win). 2.65/3.65=72.6%
@+235 Risk $1.00 returns $3.35 ($1.00 stake +$2.35 win) 1.00/3.35=29.85%

72.6%+29.85%=102.45%
To remove vig divide by by 102.45
72.6/102.45=70.86%
29.85/102.45=29.14%

So no-vig probabilities are: Packers 70.86% / Lions 29.14%
Save the math and plug it in here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ in 4th row down labelled implied probability.

The no vig moneyline is -243.2 / +243.2

Calculating teaser odds. You just need to convert it from a single bet into parlay terms.

2 team +100 you need to win 50% to break even so take square root of .50 = 70.71% plug into odds converter = -241.4

2 team -110 you need to win 52.38% of the time so take square root of .5238 = 72.374 plug into odds converter -262

So your question depends on how much do trust Pinnacle's #'s right now. If someone offering -6 will take your bet at 2-team +100 you're getting -241.4 while the no vig Pinnacle line is -243.2. That's an extremely small edge normally not ever worth pushing based on rough data like this - However - IF you find another leg with a larger edge to match it with then sure its a great play so long as we're still talking 2-team +100

still would rather not

Please enlighten me here. What if the total was 36 you still would rather not? LT was generous with his comment - you have to be very selectively with these though.

[NSN21]

Prop - Good post, thanks for breaking that down. Makes it very easy to follow and understand.

[benjy]

Prop's post is fantastic. Nominate that thang.

[jolmscheid]

When one finds these Wong opportunities, how should ones wager size differ for 2-team, 3-team, and 4-teamI wongs?

[blackbart]

has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.

[jolmscheid]

has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.

I like this idea bart...

[rory borealis]

The majority of bettors tease a -13 down to a -7, rather than take +2 to +8. You can give people all the information they'll ever need and the majority still do their own thing, hence, the 4 t 13point comment earlier.
Most bettors aren't sharp, nor care to be sharp... which is why it makes no sense that these books cater to the 5% who play B.S. instead of 95% of their base.
We still do 3team +180, guys that know what they're doing beat us (using basic strat) the rest monkey around and lose.

Can you link me to where this is explained more fully?

I've never heard of it, but I did play Blackjack as my sole source of income for 7 years. I'm certainly familiar with Stanford Wong.

EDIT: I found a link googling it ...thanks to all

[princecharles]

Can you share or PM me the link please?

I found a few good ones, but would like to see what got. Always trying to learn.
Thanks

[LVHerbie]

Bill the Cop? I'd tread carefully, a lot of his stuff is data mined.

Not to be rude (as I would mostly agree with your assessment of BTP teasers) but what is the difference between his work and yours here and do you stand behind it?

My opinion is it exhibits very similar symptoms of data-mining (probably more so since your sample sizes are significantly smaller while looking a much broader range of teaser offerings at very isolated key numbers)...

[LT Profits]

Just between you and me (and the rest of the board...LOL), SBR requested a college teaser article on rather short notice, so I winged it quickly. There ARE +EV teasers in CFB, but totals need to be smaller.

[jolmscheid]

Hey LT...or anyone else who plays quite a few teasers...in general, how do you size your 2-team, 3-team, and 4-team teasers that are -105, +180, and +300 respectively?

[raiders72001]

It's mind boggling how simple the math is and how many people mess this up. Your question can not be answered because you'd state the teaser odds you're getting and you also say the the moneyline is -265 but where is it -265 and what is the underdog line?

Okay so @ Pinnacle I'm seeing -265 / +235
So risk/return = implied probability.
@-265 Risk $2.65 returns $3.65 ($2.65 stake +$1.00 win). 2.65/3.65=72.6%
@+235 Risk $1.00 returns $3.35 ($1.00 stake +$2.35 win) 1.00/3.35=29.85%

72.6%+29.85%=102.45%
To remove vig divide by by 102.45
72.6/102.45=70.86%
29.85/102.45=29.14%

So no-vig probabilities are: Packers 70.86% / Lions 29.14%
Save the math and plug it in here: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ in 4th row down labelled implied probability.

The no vig moneyline is -243.2 / +243.2

Calculating teaser odds. You just need to convert it from a single bet into parlay terms.

2 team +100 you need to win 50% to break even so take square root of .50 = 70.71% plug into odds converter = -241.4

2 team -110 you need to win 52.38% of the time so take square root of .5238 = 72.374 plug into odds converter -262

So your question depends on how much do trust Pinnacle's #'s right now. If someone offering -6 will take your bet at 2-team +100 you're getting -241.4 while the no vig Pinnacle line is -243.2. That's an extremely small edge normally not ever worth pushing based on rough data like this - However - IF you find another leg with a larger edge to match it with then sure its a great play so long as we're still talking 2-team +100



Please enlighten me here. What if the total was 36 you still would rather not? LT was generous with his comment - you have to be very selectively with these though.

math right but you don't want to use 6 or 6.5. What are you using for push percentages at 7.5 to 8.5? The math of the SBR convertor doesn't help if you do it accurately.

[MonkeyF0cker]

math right but you don't want to use 6 or 6.5. What are you using for push percentages at 7.5 to 8.5? The math of the SBR convertor doesn't help if you do it accurately.

LOL. Wow.

I think you're a little lost, pal.

[jolmscheid]

has anyone ever looked at taking the juiced side at 5dimes?
they add so much to the wongable side, i think it makes taking free points on the other side profitable.
also for anyone who wants to know which sides are profitable in teasers, 5dimes does all the work for you.

Hey bart or LT..maybe you guys could elaborate on this more? Maybe teasing the -125+ juiced sides at 5D?

[FourLengthsClear]

Hey bart or LT..maybe you guys could elaborate on this more? Maybe teasing the -125+ juiced sides at 5D?

No. Teasing from +7.5 to +13.5 is still a statistically terrible bet even starting from a +125 base.

[JimHadley]

Could someone please explain to me what a 'wong' teaser actually is?

[FourLengthsClear]

Could someone please explain to me what a 'wong' teaser actually is?

http://www.docsports.com/current/wong-teasers-basic-strategy-teasers.html

[JimHadley]

http://www.docsports.com/current/won...y-teasers.html

Thanks

[jolmscheid]

I think wongs were very profitable this season..based on my tracking...anyone else do well this season?

[mathdotcom]

My best year on teasers yet

[jolmscheid]

Nice mathy ... I found that adding a couple filters to the wongs really can help..

Also, is it smart to play all possible teaser combinations during a given nfl week or is that putting too much stake on one team?

[Inkwell77]

good stuff

[GunShard]

This system failed for the 2011 NFL season.