Honest Question to "Sharps" Like No Coincedences/K13 Etc... On This Site

[Dutch]

you don't determine it before hand


you figure it out as it's starting and ride it out until Vegas adjusts/they face unfavorable matchups/start to show signs of slowing down

If you had waited and "figured out" Wisconsin was covering at a decent clip and then jumped on them the last few weeks you'd be fuked. Just like if you jump on 49ers, you might be fuked a few weeks from now. There's not a lot of value in trends. Not saying no value, just not as much as you seem to think.

[big0mar]

so you need quantitative analysis to win??? Give me a fukking break




this forum is filled with guys who win at a very high rate using nothing but a high level of sports knowledge and common sense

Sure, sports knowledge and common sense. Good luck with that. Maybe Goldman Sachs will set up a "common sense" division so they can really start making money.

And please, show the guys on this forum that win at at very high rate over 1000+ plays. I look forward to your response.

[brahmabull117]

Sure, sports knowledge and common sense. Good luck with that. Maybe Goldman Sachs will set up a "common sense" division so they can really start making money.

And please, show the guys on this forum that win at at very high rate over 1000+ plays. I look forward to your response.

1000+ plays is several years of handicapping - that's an outrageous request




there's plenty of guys here who hit 60% in NFL/CFB though

[brahmabull117]

If you had waited and "figured out" Wisconsin was covering at a decent clip and then jumped on them the last few weeks you'd be fuked. Just like if you jump on 49ers, you might be fuked a few weeks from now. There's not a lot of value in trends. Not saying no value, just not as much as you seem to think.

to me, I look for trends because it's a way of knowing what team is underrated/overrated by vegas (in terms of spreads) and what team is playing better/worse on defense (in terms of totals) than vegas projects them



then after that point, I try to figure out if it's a good matchup with all things considered and if the line is inflated or deflated



blindly betting anything will never be succesful

[BetterBizness]

Better to bet Ugandan Soccer where you know nothing but line moves than knowing anything about the players...

[brahmabull117]

Better to bet Ugandan Soccer where you know nothing but line moves than knowing anything about the players...

complete horsesht


all these people who think line moves are the end all/be all of sports betting are clowns

[allabout the $$$]

you are a fukking idiot just go away

[big0mar]

1000+ plays is several years of handicapping - that's an outrageous request




there's plenty of guys here who hit 60% in NFL/CFB though

Anything under 1000 is not a legitimate sample size

I have no doubt that anyone can hit 60% in NFL for a season, even two

There is a reason why you don't see anyone keep a record for longer than that

[big0mar]

Better to bet Ugandan Soccer where you know nothing but line moves than knowing anything about the players...

complete horsesht


all these people who think line moves are the end all/be all of sports betting are clowns

Jesus, how clueless can you get Brahma.

You just made a thread to argue that markets are inefficient. Yet in the same thread you are arguing that they are efficient.

This is classic.

[brahmabull117]

Jesus, how clueless can you get Brahma. You just made a thread to argue that markets are inefficient. Yet in the same thread you are arguing that they are efficient. This is classic.

where did I say markets are efficient??



I said people who think line moves are everything and that nothing else matters in sports betting are fukking morons

[BettingWizard]

I've never seen a "sharp" say that you shouldn't ride streaks

[big0mar]

where did I say markets are efficient??



I said people who think line moves are everything and that nothing else matters in sports betting are fukking morons

Your premise of the thread is that markets aren't efficient.

If you understand markets, you'll understand why Ugandan soccer is less efficient than most markets, and how following line movement can help tell you where the inefficiencies lie.

You seem like a smart person, but you are looking at this through the prism of sports. Its just a market like any other. When you bet on a team you are betting on a position. You are dealing in absolutes when you should be dealing with quantitative values.

There is a reason why hedge funds and investment banks will hire anyone that can devise an algorithm

[allabout the $$$]

when is everyone gonna learn this guy is a fraud and an attention whore

[brahmabull117]

Your premise of the thread is that markets aren't efficient.

If you understand markets, you'll understand why Ugandan soccer is less efficient than most markets, and how following line movement can help tell you where the inefficiencies lie.

but I know nothing about that sport, so why would I that bother??



I can't make a bet based on line movements - I need to have an understanding of how the game is gonna play out before I'm willing to put money on it

[Dutch]

to me, I look for trends because it's a way of knowing what team is underrated/overrated by vegas (in terms of spreads) and what team is playing better/worse on defense (in terms of totals) than vegas projects them



then after that point, I try to figure out if it's a good matchup with all things considered and if the line is inflated or deflated



blindly betting anything will never be succesful

Again, this sounds like good ol' handicapping.

Looking for trends, hot teams/cold teams, looking at lines, how the public is betting, the weather, is it a revenge game? etc., then add it all up to find the value, is the definition of handicapping.

Doing any of these things by itself (this thread sounds like you're saying look for a trend and jump on, until it cools off) has no value.

[brahmabull117]

Again, this sounds like good ol' handicapping. Looking for trends, hot teams/cold teams, looking at lines, how the public is betting, the weather, is it a revenge game? etc., then add it all up to find the value, is the definition of handicapping. Doing any of these things by itself (this thread sounds like you're saying look for a trend and jump on, until it cools off) has no value.

Okay but my problem is people here think that "good ol' handicapping" will never be succesful because Vegas doesn't give out inaccurate lines

[big0mar]

Okay but my problem is people here think that "good ol' handicapping" will never be succesful because Vegas doesn't give out inaccurate lines

It won't be successful. Everyone is capable of "good ol handicapping". All their information is widely available to anyone.

[No coincidences]

SO PROVE "US SHARPS" WRONG, STFU AND START A THREAD WHERE YOU SMOKE THE BOOKS ALREADY.

Go, go, go....

[brahmabull117]

It won't be successful. Everyone is capable of "good ol handicapping". All their information is widely available to anyone.

nonsense


there's plenty of people in the industry who make decent money year in and year out handicapping and they're not all stat geeks who sit around and obsess over "Algorithm"

[brahmabull117]

.

Go, go, go....

I would do it but it would be filled with pages of trolling, flaming and flamebaiting

[No coincidences]

It won't be successful. Everyone is capable of "good ol handicapping". All their information is widely available to anyone.

What's a more interesting question -- and one you'll probably never see a true answer to -- is how books and oddsmakers have adjusted to the information that, in the past 10-15 years, has become readily available to your Average Joe on the Internet. Now everyone has access to a lot of the "inside info" that loses its value when it becomes mainstream.

That'd be a good read.

And brahma, please, PLEASE pay attention to what 0mar is saying. He's owning this thread.

[No coincidences]

I would do it but it would be filled with pages of trolling, flaming and flamebaiting

[big0mar]

nonsense


there's plenty of people in the industry who make decent money year in and year out handicapping and they're not all stat geeks who sit around and obsess over "Algorithm"

Who?

I already asked who has a winning record with 1000+ plays. You failed to answer. Presumably because they do not exist.

There are people in this forum that are successful gamblers. You know how to find them? Look at the date they joined. There is a reason why 99% of the people who are active here have joined within the last 20 months. Its because 99% of them start gambling and lose their shit within 2 years.

Look for the guys who never post any plays. The people that come to this forum and don't share any information. How do you think they make their plays?

[brahmabull117]

What's a more interesting question -- and one you'll probably never see a true answer to -- is how books and oddsmakers have adjusted to the information that, in the past 10-15 years, has become readily available to your Average Joe on the Internet. Now everyone has access to a lot of the "inside info" that loses its value when it becomes mainstream.

That'd be a good read.this thread.

Here are the reasons why the average Joe will never make money betting sports



1)Action Junkie - bets on way too many games - always gotta remember that the overwhelming majority of plays are a coin flip
2)Doesn't know how to objectively evaluate games - emotional betting - - he bets on teams he wants to win
3)Horrible money managament



you outsmart the average joe and vegas by betting on a few plays a week that have a lot of factual support behind it

[big0mar]

Brahma, you've made an entire thread based on the concept of finding "cracks". Presumably these "cracks" are based off information that not everybody has.

Please, share with everyone how you can find these "cracks" and why nobody else is able to. Thanks in advance.

[FourLengthsClear]

so you need quantitative analysis to win??? Give me a fukking break

this forum is filled with guys who win at a very high rate using nothing but a high level of sports knowledge and common sense

No, it really isn't.

[No coincidences]

Here are the reasons why the average Joe will never make money betting sports



1)Action Junkie - bets on way too many games - always gotta remember that the overwhelming majority of plays are a coin flip
2)Doesn't know how to objectively evaluate games - emotional betting - - he bets on teams he wants to win
3)Horrible money managament



you outsmart the average joe and vegas by betting on a few plays a week that have a lot of factual support behind it

While I agree with all of this in theory and actually think the vast majority of it is true, you're taking quite a leap by saying if you eliminate all of these points, you can automatically make a boatload as a sports bettor.

Feel free to prove us wrong.

[big0mar]

Here are the reasons why the average Joe will never make money betting sports



1)Action Junkie - bets on way too many games - always gotta remember that the overwhelming majority of plays are a coin flip
2)Doesn't know how to objectively evaluate games - emotional betting - - he bets on teams he wants to win
3)Horrible money managament



you outsmart the average joe and vegas by betting on a few plays a week that have a lot of factual support behind it

What % of the market is affected by this 3 types of gamblers???? You do realize that the "average" Joe is probably betting with "average" money???

[No coincidences]

Please, share with everyone how you can find these "cracks" and why nobody else is able to. Thanks in advance.

[Romanov]

Brahma, please tell me your good money management methods. Do you use Kelly? Half kelly?

[antifoil]

i want to know how do you determine when a hot streak begins and ends?

[brahmabull117]

Brahma, please tell me your good money management methods. Do you use Kelly? Half kelly?

I don't have good money management skills, I'll admit it



my money management is horrible - which is why I have hit about 70% of my plays since the start of the basketball playoffs and have only won about $6000 dollars combined


I had a 2 month stretch there where I was winning about 75% of my plays in baseball and ended up losing a $7000 bankroll due to horrible money management

[shari91]

No, it really isn't.

[brahmabull117]

Who?

I already asked who has a winning record with 1000+ plays. You failed to answer. Presumably because they do not exist.

There are people in this forum that are successful gamblers. You know how to find them? Look at the date they joined. There is a reason why 99% of the people who are active here have joined within the last 20 months. Its because 99% of them start gambling and lose their shit within 2 years.

Look for the guys who never post any plays. The people that come to this forum and don't share any information. How do you think they make their plays?

You claim that you need a 1000 sample size to prove that anybody is a good handicapper... but why???


hitting 66% even over a 50 sample size is absolutely incredible - here check out this website http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx


Basically you're claiming that good ole handicapping is no different than flipping a coin. Well your probability of flipping a coin and having it land on 1 side 66 or higher % of the time over a 50 play sample is 0.000894965195742947



so you're telling me that the people on this site who hit 60% of their plays over a 50-100 sample size are just flipping a coin by relying on sports knowledge and common sense...so how are they able to do something that is so statistically unlikely?? I mean 0.00089??

[Romanov]

I don't have good money management skills, I'll admit it my money management is horrible - which is why I have hit about 70% of my plays since the start of the basketball season and have only won about $6000 dollars combined

How about you try and become a better gambler and not a self-aggrandizing braggart and read something