Honest Question to "Sharps" Like No Coincedences/K13 Etc... On This Site

CanuckG · 11-14-11, 02:00 PM

Because 22 games or 8 games are a lot of games to look at to see if you win long term right? Keep taking those Unders for 1000-2000 games and you'll see you'll probably hit 50% or less.

NYSportsGuy210 · 11-14-11, 02:00 PM

Sorry but the title made me laugh.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Because 22 games or 8 games are a lot of games to look at to see if you win long term right? Keep taking those Unders for 1000-2000 games and you'll see you'll probably hit 50% or less.

but you have to be smart - you don't keep playing a hot streak when it starts to show signs of slowing down. Georgia Tech earlier on the season was covering every spread with ease - they barely won 21-16 at home against Maryland and I immediately jumped off the bandwagon

If Oklahoma State suddenly starts getting insanely high spreads and only covering at a 50% rate, you gotta look for the next team getting zero love from vegas and covering spreads left and right

No coincidences · 11-14-11, 02:07 PM

A) I am no "sharp." I don't know how many times I have to post this and navigate through your bushy eyebrows to get that through your thick head.

B) Where did any of us say you couldn't make money long-term gambling?

C) So I'm assuming you've been taking the Pokes and Niners every week and making a killing right? Because if you haven't, it's all retrospective and completely and utterly useless information now.

D) How is that overly simplistic strategy working for you (just following obvious trends that you can get on the ESPN bottom line ticker)? Are you rich yet? That's what I thought.

SportsMushroom · 11-14-11, 02:08 PM

so 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS huh? well where were you 3 months ago to let everyone know that they will cover 7 of 8, so that we could all be rich?

yes there are runs by different teams but you cannot identify them before they happen, by the time you realize its over

just like your 'bears have not lost by more than 7 in like a gazillion years' bet

guess what, they lost by more than 7 the exact game you bet them in

brahma create a thread with picks so we can all follow you to richie rich's Mansion, and dont abandon it every time you go broke

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

A) I am no "sharp." I don't know how many times I have to post this and navigate through your bushy eyebrows to get that through your thick head. B) Where did any of us say you couldn't make money long-term gambling? C) So I'm assuming you've been taking the Pokes and Niners every week and making a killing right? Because if you haven't, it's all retrospective and completely and utterly useless information now. D) How is that overly simplistic strategy working for you (just following obvious trends that you can get on the ESPN bottom line ticker)? Are you rich yet? That's what I thought.

1)drop the insults and try to have a mature discussion for once

2)maybe not you, but there's a lot of people who believe in the efficient theory market

3)I've taken OKst a few times this year and been very succesful - especially with their overs

4)What does ESPN have to do with gambling?? None of this information is available on espn - I look it up on covers.com, the SBR website itself etc....

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by SportsMushroom

yes there are runs by different teams but you cannot identify them before they happen, by the time you realize its over

the Patriots and Cowboys went a combined 26-6 on Overs last season

it's impossible to identify that streak let's say 1/3 the way thru the season and then just ride it out the rest of the way???

Dutch · 11-14-11, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Why is it impossible to make money betting if you just figure out who those teams are every year and ride the hot streaks??

How do you figure out who the teams are before the fact? Should we blindly bet the 49ers the rest of the season?

Last year Hawaii football was a covering machine...Hawaii is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.

No coincidences · 11-14-11, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

it's impossible to identify that streak let's say 1/3 the way thru the season and then just ride it out the rest of the way???

If you bet based on every "hot streak" Covers fed you, you'd do a lot more crashing and burning because you arrived too late vs. "riding" the streak for longer.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you bet based on every "hot streak" Covers fed you, you'd do a lot more crashing and burning because you arrived too late vs. "riding" the streak for longer.

but you're not tailing these streaks blindly

the bengals for example were awesome ATS early in the season - but I wouldn't have played them against Pittsburg last sunday and I'm sure as hell not gonna play them against baltimore next week

It's a combination of finding these underrated/overrated teams early and exploiting that before Vegas adjusts/Before they face very unfavorable matchups

For example - I jumped all over San Fran -3 at Washington - that's a line that later on in the season will be -8 when the books do adjust to San Fran

rfr3sh · 11-14-11, 02:31 PM

coinflip is the best method imo

opie1988 · 11-14-11, 02:32 PM

Brahma-

How about I just head on over and give you an ol' fashioned ass whooping for making annoying ass threads like this?

I've had just about enough, boy.

Masu485 · 11-14-11, 02:32 PM

Define what a hot streak is. There's no way of knowing a team will cover that many in a row. If you define a hot streak as covering 5 in a row, then you've basically already missed the boat. It's not everyday good teams go 7-0-1 ATS, but you're making it sound common. Even if you did hop on after they covered 5 in a row, you'd have still only made 2u, decent but certainly not a killing.

firedawg · 11-14-11, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by opie1988

Brahma-

How about I just head on over and give you an ol' fashioned ass whooping for making annoying ass threads like this?

I've had just about enough, boy.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Masu485

Define what a hot streak is. There's no way of knowing a team will cover that many in a row. If you define a hot streak as covering 5 in a row, then you've basically already missed the boat. It's not everyday good teams go 7-0-1 ATS, but you're making it sound common. Even if you did hop on after they covered 5 in a row, you'd have still only made 2u, decent but certainly not a killing.

I don't think you realize how common these sorts of runs are

The Cowboys and Patriots went 26-6 on Overs last year
The Dolphins and Jags are a combined 16-2 on Unders this year
Notre Dame and Clemson were a combined 20-2 on Unders last year

If there's an efficient market, how the hell can 2 teams cover the over at an 85% rate for an entire season???

big0mar · 11-14-11, 02:40 PM

No market is completely efficient.

You have very little idea of what you are talking about here.

Vegas doesn't give a shit if Team X, Y, or Z goes 16-0 ATS

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

No market is completely efficient.:

I agree - there's plenty of cracks in the system which is why a team like Stanford is something like 16-5 ATS the last 2 seasons

my question is why do so many people claim that its impossible to make money exploiting those cracks in the system??

BetterBizness · 11-14-11, 02:48 PM

Have we mentioned that "under" and "over" are all relative terms as well to complicate things...

just like teams cover 16-0 ATS... The difference between covering 14 and 3 is quite large and means different things...

Detroit covered alot last year because they were DD dogs much of the time and played tough when games were already over...

Obv Books make these adjustments to more than "over/under" "Ats" etc...

WAY to simple to use these terms.. that's ESPN box shiet...

RudyRuetigger · 11-14-11, 02:50 PM

jesus christ...i could find better questions on a sesame street forum

Inkwell77 · 11-14-11, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I don't think you realize how common these sorts of runs are

The Cowboys and Patriots went 26-6 on Overs last year
The Dolphins and Jags are a combined 16-2 on Unders this year
Notre Dame and Clemson were a combined 20-2 on Unders last year

If there's an efficient market, how the hell can 2 teams cover the over at an 85% rate for an entire season???

There has to be crazy so called "inefficient" streaks because if the market was so called "efficient" and there were never streaks like that sharps would just wait till a team is 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 games above or below .500 ats and bet the other side and then they would make a killing. And that would be a so called "inefficiency" in the market.

Truth be told, I don't even really believe the "market" is really "efficient" or whatever, but Bhrama, your theory is not what makes the market "inefficient"

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by Inkwell77

There has to be crazy so called "inefficient" streaks because if the market was so called "efficient" and there were never streaks like that sharps would just wait till a team is 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 games above or below .500 ats and bet the other side and then they would make a killing. And that would be a so called "inefficiency" in the market. Truth be told, I don't even really believe the "market" is really "efficient" or whatever, but Bhrama, your theory is not what makes the market "inefficient"

my point is that it's an inefficient market because there are inaccurate/soft lines every week

for example, why is Stanford only 20-21 point favorites week after week against teams like Duke and Cal when they have beaten teams under .500 by an average of 34 points last 2 seasons??

opie1988 · 11-14-11, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

jesus christ...i could find better questions on a sesame street forum

Rudy-

On behalf of the entire chit-chat room....Please allow me to apologize for Brahma's extreme douchiness.

Take note I've already informed him of his ass whooping he'll soon be receiving as well.

Again, our apologies for this nonsense pulling you away from your capping, Rudy. I hope you know how very embarrassing we find the whole Brahma "situation".

It's handled, pal.

k13 · 11-14-11, 03:11 PM

I'm a Sharp now...lol

How can you predict before hand who's going to be 8-0 ATS? Did you know that before the year started? Most people would be on auto fade Alex Smith list.

Those are tiny samples. So what's your prediction for the next 100 games?

For every 8-0 ATS team there's an 0-8 ATS team....it will have equal distribution.

If you know anything about statistics, with enough samples everything will go back to an equal mean.

You can't go far from 50% flipping coins everyday.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by k13

I'm a Sharp now...lol How can you predict before hand who's going to be 8-0 ATS? Did you know that before the year started? Most people would be on auto fade Alex Smith list. Those are tiny samples. So what's your prediction for the next 100 games? For every 8-0 ATS team there's an 0-8 ATS team....it will have equal distribution. If you know anything about statistics, with enough samples everything will go back to an equal mean. You can't go far from 50% flipping coins everyday.

you don't determine it before hand

you figure it out as it's starting and ride it out until Vegas adjusts/they face unfavorable matchups/start to show signs of slowing down

boneheaded1 · 11-14-11, 03:14 PM

Sorry, I'm just not a trend guy. I don't look at how many times a team has covered this or that. I only look at how is that team playing NOW. How is their opponent playing NOW. Do they have common opponents? How have they performed against common opponents? What are the teams strengths and weaknesses and how do they match up the opposing strengths and weaknesses.

Example the Niners/Giants over was a freebie (even though I teased it). Both teams had been playing well, both teams have consistantly put up at least 20 and both offense's strengths played to the opposing defense's weaknesses.

When you bet based on trends, you put yourself up for the following fact. All trends/streaks come to an end.

Books don't set their lines to what they think the score will be, they set their lines to where they think money played will be evenly distributed and they can just drink up on the juice. No book likes to gamble, they just want a % of all the action.

And on a final note. I am not a sharp nor have I ever claimed to be. I am a square.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

Sorry, I'm just not a trend guy. I don't look at how many times a team has covered this or that. I only look at how is that team playing NOW. How is their opponent playing NOW. Do they have common opponents? How have they performed against common opponents? What are the teams strengths and weaknesses and how do they match up the opposing strengths and weaknesses. Example the Niners/Giants over was a freebie (even though I teased it). Both teams had been playing well, both teams have consistantly put up at least 20 and both offense's strengths played to the opposing defense's weaknesses. When you bet based on trends, you put yourself up for the following fact. All trends/streaks come to an end.

I agree 100% - I'm right there with you. I love trends/streaks but only if it's a favorable matchup with all those things you discussed

Books don't set their lines to what they think the score will be, they set their lines to where they think money played will be evenly distributed and they can just drink up on the juice. No book likes to gamble, they just want a % of all the action. And on a final note. I am not a sharp nor have I ever claimed to be. I am a square.

not according to people on this site

according to this site, every line set by vegas is exactly what's gonna happen and it's impossible to make money outsmarting Vegas

big0mar · 11-14-11, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

I agree - there's plenty of cracks in the system which is why a team like Stanford is something like 16-5 ATS the last 2 seasons

my question is why do so many people claim that its impossible to make money exploiting those cracks in the system??

Nobody said it was impossible. This place is full of people that make money gambling.

People just say that you aren't going to make money, you're not exploiting cracks. You just point out plainly obvious things that anybody with an internet connection can discover.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

People just say that you aren't going to make money, because the cracks you believe you are exploiting aren't cracks. You just point out plainly obvious things that anybody with an internet connection can discover.

why do I need some super secret insider info to exploit the market??

There's lots of people I know who have made plenty of money in the stock market, for example, with just the information that anybody can find out about stocks online

what separates the good gamblers from crappy gamblers - the good gamblers are able to find out the right plays with objective non emotional analysis, have good money management and the discipline to only play the games where there is a significant edge

the reason your average Joe doesn't make money betting is because he has horrible money management, bets with emotion and is an action junkie

milwaukee mike · 11-14-11, 03:24 PM

one of the main points on these things is pick them EARLY

i had houston ncaaf with over 71 thursday's game at the open, i think the total shot up to 78 at game time.
so take scoring machine teams like houston/oregon/oklahoma st parlayed with the over at shops that allow it and you'll do fine.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

one of the main points on these things is pick them EARLY i had houston ncaaf with over 71 thursday's game at the open, i think the total shot up to 78 at game time. so take scoring machine teams like houston/oregon/oklahoma st parlayed with the over at shops that allow it and you'll do fine.

absolutely, beating the closer is huge

big0mar · 11-14-11, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

why do I need some super secret insider info to exploit the market??

There's lots of people I know who have made plenty of money in the stock market, for example, with just the information that anybody can find out about stocks online

what separates the good gamblers from crappy gamblers - the good gamblers are able to find out the right plays with objective non emotional analysis, have good money management and the discipline to only play the games where there is a significant edge

the reason your average Joe doesn't make money betting is because he has horrible money management, bets with emotion and is an action junkie

You have no clue.

Who do you think is going to exploit inefficiencies? Some schlep that is looking at stats on espn, or the team that has a database going back to 1980 and is using quantitative analysis????

We are talking about a billion dollar industry. Don't be naive.

k13 · 11-14-11, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

you don't determine it before hand

you figure it out as it's starting and ride it out until Vegas adjusts/they face unfavorable matchups/start to show signs of slowing down

So when did you know to get on the Niners Train and when do you get off?

Everything is easy to say after the fact.

Let us know in advance when a good streak is starting so we can make some money.

Dutch · 11-14-11, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

my question is why do so many people claim that its impossible to make money exploiting those cracks in the system??

The way you talk about "Exploiting cracks in the system" sounds like regular ol' handicapping the games.

brahmabull117 · 11-14-11, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

You have no clue.

Who do you think is going to exploit inefficiencies? Some schlep that is looking at stats on espn, or the team that has a database going back to 1980 and is using quantitative analysis????

so you need quantitative analysis to win??? Give me a fukking break

this forum is filled with guys who win at a very high rate using nothing but a high level of sports knowledge and common sense