If there's one thing I've learned betting sports

[No coincidences]

If you are on a home team that's anywhere from a PK to -3 in football, you're probably on a loser.

Today was a prime example in the NFL. Chiefs? Lost SU. Falcons? Lost SU. Browns? Lost SU. Jets? Lost SU. Only the Bears managed to win as a home fave in the FG or less range.

Same rule seems to apply for basketball. I don't know how many times I've looked at a home team at PK or -1 and thought, "man, that looks like a great play" only to watch it crash and burn.

Road dogs of +3 or less. Home dogs up to +6.5 (or just home dogs altogether if you'd like). There is no "magic bullet" in gambling, but you'd be comfortably in the black if you just focused on fading home squads who are barely favored and/or road faves in general.

[TheCentaur]

Careful, it sounds like the gambling gods are setting you up for a fall

[warriorfan707]

Interesting

might be worth tracking on a spreadsheet for a while

Way to crush em today hoss, nice nfl pix

[MichaelWaters]

vegas has you totally confused

[No coincidences]

vegas has you totally confused

Quite the contrary -- though it took a solid 1.5 years worth of losing short home faves to figure out how often they don't cash.

I'm not saying you just blindly win every bet you make on a short road dog -- I'm just saying that, along with home dogs (especially the +5.5 variety), there's money to be made in backing them.

[MichaelWaters]

Quite the contrary -- though it took a solid 1.5 years worth of losing short home faves to figure out how often they don't cash.

I'm not saying you just blindly win every bet you make on a short road dog -- I'm just saying that, along with home dogs (especially the +5.5 variety), there's money to be made in backing them.

lol so today finally convinced you? when you look at next weeks lines you wont feel the same, they will feel spot-on and you will make the same plays as usual

[No coincidences]

Interesting

might be worth tracking on a spreadsheet for a while

Way to crush em today hoss, nice nfl pix

Thanks warrior.

I'd like to know what it looks like. Maybe it's just me and I wouldn't be able to back it up with hard evidence.

K13? Help?

[No coincidences]

lol so today finally convinced you? when you look at next weeks lines you wont feel the same, they will feel spot-on and you will make the same plays as usual

No -- today only further validated it. And while the oddsmakers are great at headfaking in the NFL, it works even better in college where lines are typically softer.

Again, I'm not saying it's an end-all be-all formula. If you're on a short home fave, though, that team is probably -1.5 for a reason and it ain't to win the game.

[MichaelWaters]

in the NFL the -3 means a lot more than it does in college. thats about it.

but i guarantee you NFL home teams -1 to -2.5 have a winning record on the ML over multiple years

[warriorfan707]

K13?

[unusialsusp5]

no need to no coincidences. road teams getting 1-6.5 pts. cover more than 60% of the time. this i've known for 40 years. what you found out that there is too much slant toward home field advantage by the books. these road teams are generally the equal or better than the home team and they just flat out cover. teasing those short priced road team dogs is almost infallible. do they all cover. of course not. see detroit today, nygiants (altho covered the tease) cinn (covered the tease) this is a well known trend that the sharpies use each and every week.

[No coincidences]

He's the man when it comes to retrieving data on trends/lines.

[warriorfan707]

Good stuff guys

Im gonna keep an eye out for these shits

[MichaelWaters]

next week

Cleveland -1
Miami -2.5
Rams -2.5

which game stands out as a winner?

Maybe Rams losing, then you know the public will be all over Seattle and you will never place the bet. Or maybe you like Buffalo going into Miami and winning on the ML, but again the public loves it and you bet the opposite then

[warriorfan707]

He's the man when it comes to retrieving data on trends/lines.

well what are we waiting for, lets page his ass

[No coincidences]

no need to no coincidences. road teams getting 1-6.5 pts. cover more than 60% of the time. this i've known for 40 years. what you found out that there is too much slant toward home field advantage by the books. these road teams are generally the equal or better than the home team and they just flat out cover. teasing those short priced road team dogs is almost infallible. do they all cover. of course not. see detroit today, nygiants (altho covered the tease) cinn (covered the tease) this is a well known trend that the sharpies use each and every week.

Yep.

SF actually closed above -3, though.

Pittsburgh was on the road.

[No coincidences]

next week

Cleveland -1
Miami -2.5
Rams -2.5

which game stands out as a winner?

Maybe Rams losing, then you know the public will be all over Seattle and you will never place the bet. Or maybe you like Buffalo going into Miami and winning on the ML, but again the public loves it and you bet the opposite then

What part of "you can't just blindly bet 'em all" do you not get?

We'll also see if the Fins or the Rams push above and/or close clear of -3.

FTR, I don't just blindly fade all public plays. The Steelers were my biggest play of the day today.

[sneakerhead]

so you were on the road teams today in that category i assume?

[MichaelWaters]

What part of "you can't just blindly bet 'em all" do you not get?

We'll also see if the Fins or the Rams push above and/or close clear of -3.

FTR, I don't just blindly fade all public plays. The Steelers were my biggest play of the day today.

yes i know you said you cant just blindly play them all, and i know you cant just fade the public all the time but it just so happens the public loves the Pats +2 just like they will love Buffalo +2.5. so that leaves you with very few games each week that dont look like set-ups..........so much parody in the NFL there is absolutely no formula to win. maybe wong teasers but they are few and far between

[NYSportsGuy210]

Buffalo Bills will kill Miami next week.

[face]

maybe vegas tries to get people to take losing moneyline faves?
"oh the line is -2, i'll just take the (juiced) moneyline." i don't know.

[sweethook]

but weeks ago it was the other way around

[GAMBLOR777]

^^^ guy is right


oddsmakers are dynamic, they change it up to keep us punter's guessing

[opie1988]

No Coin is a sharp SOB. ANyone who doesn't appreciate the time & effort he puts into it simply doesn't get it, and should most likely quit gambling all together.

[No coincidences]

but weeks ago it was the other way around

It was? When?

Again I suppose if true, in the NFL, I shouldn't be surprised. Lines are incredibly and ironically "sharp," so it's hard to nail down a pattern.

Like I said, though, this theory seems to work quite well for college football and basketball as well.

[No coincidences]

No Coin is a sharp SOB. ANyone who doesn't appreciate the time & effort he puts into it simply doesn't get it, and should most likely quit gambling all together.

Thanks opie.

As usual, take my advice and do whatever you want with it. I'm not telling you to apply this theory without doing your own research -- just a suggestion and a heads-up.

[k13]

I'll look into it for the whole season but I'm sure faves win SU at a decent rate no matter what spread.

[No coincidences]

I'll look into it for the whole season but I'm sure faves win SU at a decent rate no matter what spread.

Even short ones?

[thebestthereis]

What I do know is if Andy Reid ate Brandon Jacobs he would still look the same.

[No coincidences]

What I do know is if Andy Reid ate Brandon Jacobs he would still look the same.

You think Andy had a few Ho-Ho's yesterday after the game?

[Dr Nostron]

I'm done betting on the Ravens when they are heavy favs. Thats 3 times this year they should have pounded some lessor team and not only do they not cover they get their asses beat. **** em.

[k13]

Atlanta closed at +1 and lost in OT, Browns lost on a 25 yard FG. Just like that you could be looking at different results using such small samples.

Chiefs moved off the 3.5.

[k13]

24 Wins 20 Losses

The problem here is, a huge number of these games open -1.5 and switch to +1.5. Are you going by the closing line or opening one?

[k13]

Miami opens -3/-2.5 vs Denver, Line flips and is Denver -2.5/-3 now

A short line won and lost but which one is more important?

[No coincidences]

Atlanta closed at +1 and lost in OT, Browns lost on a 25 yard FG. Just like that you could be looking at different results using such small samples.

Chiefs moved off the 3.5.

Closing, but I guess it also depends on the book line as well.

The only place I saw Atlanta closing as a dog was Bodog. Maybe Greek as well though? Most had either PK or -1.