If there's one thing I've learned betting sports

[k13]

Nov. 25, 2007 is where I turned the corner as I view the NFL/Sports Betting.

[vyomguy]

There is variance every year..small favs are good one year and bad the next year....you need to look up past 10 years worth of data to judge this trend. Someone with a DB should be able to answer this.

[BetterBizness]

Dynadonk... check in...

[Allure]

Nov. 25, 2007 is where I turned the corner as I view the NFL/Sports Betting.

Why is that?

[k13]

Why is that?

I used to post a lot on this car forum, just getting started with "online" sports betting. There was a guy there who had decent knowledge from my point of view and he recommended thegreek/pinnacle as one of the top books if I wanted to play online.

So it was the 4-6 Vikings With Tavaris Jackson on the road vs 7-3 Giants with Eli

Spread was -7. Huge % on the Giants obviously. No reason for Vikings to even be in this game let alone win.

We had a little Sports Pick section on the forum, the same sharp dude posts +7 Vikings as his biggest play in a long time. There was like ten pages of laughter at him before the game started.

I had Giants -1 in a teaser already. Saw the play, got a unsettling feeling in my stomach but at least I'm not laying 7 like a sucker....

thegreek goes to -6.5 late/closing *gulp*

Game Starts, it was like the twilight zone. Eli throws 4 int's , 3 pick 6's Vikings win 41-17

Everything on the field made zero sense, behind the field it made perfect sense. Really opened my eyes.



This occurs all the time in the nfl, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. Seattle yesterday perfect example. But I started looking at the game from a different perspective. We all know about fading the public/RLM/etc. but when to bet it and when to lay off is a big key.

Next two years I learned the ropes as you could say. I'm not one to follow plays or believe people on the internet but this dude was SHARP. Only played games few minutes before closing and lot of steam chasing. Did not win every game obviously but very good percentage. Even when the play lost it made sense to me.
Guy disappeared years ago and was never heard from again. But lots of things I learned in that time.

Now my plays are automatic like in poker. Best hand may not always win but in the long run it will....

[No coincidences]

I used to post a lot on this car forum, just getting started with "online" sports betting. There was a guy there who had decent knowledge from my point of view and he recommended thegreek/pinnacle as one of the top books if I wanted to play online.

So it was the 4-6 Vikings With Tavaris Jackson on the road vs 7-3 Giants with Eli

Spread was -7. Huge % on the Giants obviously. No reason for Vikings to even be in this game let alone win.

We had a little Sports Pick section on the forum, the same sharp dude posts +7 Vikings as his biggest play in a long time. There was like ten pages of laughter at him before the game started.

I had Giants -1 in a teaser already. Saw the play, got a unsettling feeling in my stomach but at least I'm not laying 7 like a sucker....

thegreek goes to -6.5 late/closing *gulp*

Game Starts, it was like the twilight zone. Eli throws 4 int's , 3 pick 6's Vikings win 41-17

Everything on the field made zero sense, behind the field it made perfect sense. Really opened my eyes.



This occurs all the time in the nfl, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. Seattle yesterday perfect example. But I started looking at the game from a different perspective. We all know about fading the public/RLM/etc. but when to bet it and when to lay off is a big key.

Next two years I learned the ropes as you could say. I'm not one to follow plays or believe people on the internet but this dude was SHARP. Only played games few minutes before closing and lot of steam chasing. Did not win every game obviously but very good percentage. Even when the play lost it made sense to me.
Guy disappeared years ago and was never heard from again. But lots of things I learned in that time.

Now my plays are automatic like in poker. Best hand may not always win but in the long run it will....

You are an asset to this board. This is a must-read post.

Hope you don't disappear like your guy someday.

[Inkwell77]

[JoMoney2785]

great post k13. thank you

[Sacamano]

in the NFL the -3 means a lot more than it does in college. thats about it.

but i guarantee you NFL home teams -1 to -2.5 have a winning record on the ML over multiple years

agreed...

[Allure]

I used to post a lot on this car forum, just getting started with "online" sports betting. There was a guy there who had decent knowledge from my point of view and he recommended thegreek/pinnacle as one of the top books if I wanted to play online.

So it was the 4-6 Vikings With Tavaris Jackson on the road vs 7-3 Giants with Eli

Spread was -7. Huge % on the Giants obviously. No reason for Vikings to even be in this game let alone win.

We had a little Sports Pick section on the forum, the same sharp dude posts +7 Vikings as his biggest play in a long time. There was like ten pages of laughter at him before the game started.

I had Giants -1 in a teaser already. Saw the play, got a unsettling feeling in my stomach but at least I'm not laying 7 like a sucker....

thegreek goes to -6.5 late/closing *gulp*

Game Starts, it was like the twilight zone. Eli throws 4 int's , 3 pick 6's Vikings win 41-17

Everything on the field made zero sense, behind the field it made perfect sense. Really opened my eyes.



This occurs all the time in the nfl, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. Seattle yesterday perfect example. But I started looking at the game from a different perspective. We all know about fading the public/RLM/etc. but when to bet it and when to lay off is a big key.

Next two years I learned the ropes as you could say. I'm not one to follow plays or believe people on the internet but this dude was SHARP. Only played games few minutes before closing and lot of steam chasing. Did not win every game obviously but very good percentage. Even when the play lost it made sense to me.
Guy disappeared years ago and was never heard from again. But lots of things I learned in that time.

Now my plays are automatic like in poker. Best hand may not always win but in the long run it will....

Thanks pal, great post. Hope you won't disappear like that guy, this forum needs users like you. I follow your posts regularly, just not sure when you're ironic and when not.

Still in the learning process. Have yet to understand why Seattle was the sharp play etc.

Whatever, thanks again and keep it up.

[Serbone]

If you are on a home team that's anywhere from a PK to -3 in football, you're probably on a loser.

Today was a prime example in the NFL. Chiefs? Lost SU. Falcons? Lost SU. Browns? Lost SU. Jets? Lost SU. Only the Bears managed to win as a home fave in the FG or less range.

Same rule seems to apply for basketball. I don't know how many times I've looked at a home team at PK or -1 and thought, "man, that looks like a great play" only to watch it crash and burn.

Road dogs of +3 or less. Home dogs up to +6.5 (or just home dogs altogether if you'd like). There is no "magic bullet" in gambling, but you'd be comfortably in the black if you just focused on fading home squads who are barely favored and/or road faves in general.

Great post.
Most just say they are going to HAMMER the Packers or something.
Waste of time. I like the ones who say that the "public" is on one side, are "squares" so they are taking the other side, so they are "sharps".
But I digress.
I agree with you big time, I mentioned it on another thread, I would go so far as to say that when the spread is 1-2-3-4 either way, take the visitor, it is so, SO attractive to take the home team in all those scenarios.
You cannot go with this or any "system" 100% of the time of course.
I did it extensively in early college and pros earlier in the yr since there was little data early on how teams would fare since they had not played and hit pretty good, then one week got beat pretty bad, it is not a SYSTEM but it is a good approach.
Once the season was 4-5 games, you know more about these teams, new players, coaches, coordinators, you do not know what they really are going to be (for example Indy-Philly-SD-etc are NOT what they were last year, whereas SF and others are BETTER) I went to my usual approach with SOS, motivation, matchups, QB's, letdowns, revenge, "O", "D", home away/turf, all that...
This week it went greatin the NFL if you go both ways and go to 4 points, add to yours Pitt -4, Jax -3, Hou -4, though Wash + 4 lost . I am kicking myself.