I see Yanks tanking it, and the Angels falling flat.
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The obvious: Tampan Gay
7 straight losses and Crawford 0-24 to finish the 1st half.
Red Sux and Tankees both will catch em, guaransheed.Comment -
I see I'm not the only one drinkin' today. Dagger's doing damage as well.Comment -
Well, I'll give the not so obvious (but obvious to me) choices in both leagues
AL: Texas (by a mile)
With Texas, I think their strong showing for bettors has largely been the product of them being undervalued as the season started and really the number never catching up. In fact, Texas has been an underdog in 70 of the 96 games they have played this year which comes out to 72.9% of their games which is astounding when you think about it since this is a team that is 50-46 on the season (+13.1 units). You have to wonder how a team that is 4 games over .500 at the All-Star break can possibly be an undedog in approximately 3 out of every 4 games they've played this year? Consider for a moment the Oakland Athletics who are currently one game better than Texas in the standings at 51-44 (+6.1 units). Entering the season, expectations were relatively low for Oakland as their season win total was only 72-73 wins as pegged by the oddsmaker. Despite a near identical record and in the same division, Oakland has only been an underdog 40 times this season, about half the time than Texas. Now, Oakland has played 13 more home games than road games whereas Texas has played 4 more road games than home games, but even this discrepancy shows what the oddsmakers truly think of the Texas Rangers team.
When you look at Texas, you see that they are at the top of nearly ever offensive stat in the majors. They have a great lineup with tons of power. However, their pitching is just flat out attrocious. They boast the worst ERA in the AL and only Pittsburgh has a worse ERA in MLB (a team with a 44-50 record) than do the Rangers. Their bullpen is just as impressive ranking 29th of 30 with only Cleveland holding a worst ERA. Note however, Cleveland is 12 games under .500 Consider also for just another moment the pitching staff that has accomplished this impressive 50-46 (+13.1 units) mark: Vincente Padilla, Kasson Gabbard, Kevin Milwood.
Coming into this year, Vincente Padilla had pitched 8 years in the major and compiled a career mark of 72-71 (ERA 4.29). This year, he is 10-5 (ERA 4.70). Despite having more wins than his carreer average his ERA is higher. The same can be said of Gabbard who current season ERA is higher than his career ERA. Finally, Kevin Milwood who is sporting a ERA this season (5.11) which is more than 1 full run higher than his career ERA, a career spanning now 11 years. Clearly these pitchers have benefited from lots of run support but the numbers show that these are mediocre pitchers at best and the oddsmakers are justified in continuing to make Texas an underdog b/c in almost every game, they feature the weaker of the two pitchers and the bullpen, as mentioned, is an atrocity. The Rangers will cool off IMO the 2H and it is recommended by this capper that you fade them!Comment -
NL: Florida
A lot of the same reasons as outlined above, however the offense FLA features is neither as potent as Texas's nor is the pitching staff as horrible as Texas's. In fact, there are quite a lot of things to like about this Marlins team from their good young hitters to a decent bullpen to some nice arms in their rotation (Nolasco, Olson, Volstad, etc...). However, they too have overperformed against expectations and are now relying on a very young team especially their pitchers. Going into this season, FLA was expected to be among the worst teams in the majors. That has not been the case. They've gotten good enough pitching and timely hitting to be one of the most profitable teams this years. However, that is unlikely to contine as you have an untested rotation and too many streaky hitters. The lack of experience and veteran leadership on this team in both the pitching and offense it too much to overlook for me.
Two alarming series helps illustrate this point nicely. They were swept at home against TB (a supposed rival), a TB team who is below average on the road. To me, that sort of suggests that this team is not very good. In addition, they lost a home series to the Royals. That's never a good sign.....Comment -
Rays, Tigers, Diamondbacks and Braves are my choices.Comment -
CWS will fall off, Detroit and Minne will finish strong.
Tampa will fall flat, Boston will dominate that division by at least 12.
Oakland will go flat.
Milwaukee will go flat.
St Louis as well.Comment -
3 of these 4 have been pretty much fading all year. The Rays will probably be a no-bet on the road, but still a really good team at home, but I agree they will fade. You might see them finish as far back as 8-10 games out of first place.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
Not so sure about CWS. I think they are really good. Detroit...i think they will surge, but will be overpriced and as bettors that's all that matters. Minnesota to me is not legit. Outside of the M&M boys, they have very little to offer offensively and their pitching, while good, is young and inexperienced.Originally posted by Deuce
Agree with TB and Boston
Oakland....probably.
Milwaukee, not so sure...but they will be very overpriced (especially at home) so I am not sure what value they offer b/c at home they can be unbettable at times and on the road they just aren't very good.
STL will fade I think too...Comment -
Redsox @ Angels right after the All Star break.. should be interestingComment -
Nice write ups Bear.Comment -
Originally posted by rake922
Angels picking up where they left off.Comment