Patriots -7 at Miami

[SaintsFan]

Don't you have some late season -250 baseball chalk to lay somewhere.

What's it to you as long as he hits it 3 out of 4 times and manages his bankroll effectively?

To me he's demonstrated at least a passable level of baseball matchup knowledge and team playoff positioning/motivations to earn a level of respect.

If he were only hitting 60% of his huge chalk plays he'd deserve more scorn and he wouldn't be so cocky. But from what he's posted he's batting well over the Mendoza line for a profitable season.

[Hunsy34]

There is a big difference between the ravens and dolphins. I like this play a lot with the pats.

[k13]

@k13 why worry ? place a bet on Miami ML just to be sure you have a winning day ... you get insane value with Miami ML .. don't even have to bet much to insure you 5 ML parlays ...

I'll be betting live in case anything fishy is happening....

13u would hurt to lose.

I just kept making every 2 team/ml parlay with the patriots. Jets, Cards, Niners, Eagles, Packers.

[SWBET]

Pats are running away with this one. I also like the over in the OAK vs DEN game

[bigsmitty]

For me the central fact is that everyone knows about NE, Brady, Bill, etc until you puke...They are a popular team with the public therefore the price on them will be significantly inflated. Will MIA win-maybe, maybe not but if you go with NE at this point (anything greater than -4) you are in part paying for the hype. Decent summary article for those that wish: http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spor..._in_dol_1.html. I'm partial to defense and it makes me nervous having so much dependent on one player (basically Brady). Probably going MIA +7 or off entirely. Cheers

[DerekMadden]

Don't over think it.. Just tease NE to -2 and OAK to +8

[mr.miagee357]

I`m with all of you on this. miami is bad , a lot of un answered questions, pats look good again n improved the d. it seems like one of those games where pats are up 13 n miami gets a cushion t.d....and if you take the points you might look like a jerk by the end of the 1st quarter. I say; **** that! do not bet games you do not like.just pass. on to the next game!!only thing I might do if i get bored is wait for halftime n take some decent value!!small though.. if pats are up 14 then there will be a little value on fish.. if fish are up 7 by some miracle. then pats will have a little.....bottom line if a gun was to my head forcing a must bet..(I hate teasers) but I would take pats -1 n (you know what? scratch that! pull the trigger i hate teasers!!lol.....

[saints1856]

I think Dwight's opinion is a little biased... Anyone agree? Pats -6.5

[brahmabull117]

Brahma, I will defend you to say that I think your strategy of gambling will net about as much money as Lakerboy's strategy and that it's unfair for him to be so popular while most everybody on here dislikes you.

His picks are sexier than yours - that's the bottom line. But you win a disproportionate amount of your posted plays (you hit at over 75% from what I've seen) and he hits a disproportionate amount of his crazy ass underdog plays (about 35% of them from what I've seen) so I think basically the two of you come out around the same.

I play favorites more often than the self-proclaimed "sharps" here would play, but I also play more underdogs than you would play. I think all methods can work as long as you know which games to shy away from.

Exactly, great post



it boggles my mind how people here seem to think that I just play all the big favorites on the board everyday. I haven't played the yankees or red sox in weeks because of how badly they've been struggling. I know exactly when to shy away from a big favorite or when to cash it in

[hubie69]

Certainly the Miami Defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than most people here give it credit for.

[brahmabull117]

Certainly the Miami Defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than most people here give it credit for.

but what does that really mean against an offense that averaged 35+ points per game against the top 5 defenses in the league last year??

[jrs362]

Should I hedge?

I teased NE -1, Over 40

I can play MIA +280

The only way I'd lose is if NE wins Under 40 or NE wins by 1 which I don't see as likely outcomes.

[hubie69]

but what does that really mean against an offense that averaged 35+ points per game against the top 5 defenses in the league last year??

That last year has nothing to do with this year?

[hubie69]

And Miami has for sure gotten better since last year, there is a question to how much better, but absolutely their better than last year. And 8 points is a lot.

[brahmabull117]

That last year has nothing to do with this year?

really?? So you think the patriots offense won't be as good this year with more experience and a great acquisition in Ochocinco??

[hubie69]

really?? So you think the patriots offense won't be as good this year with more experience and a great acquisition in Ochocinco??

They have yet to prove a thing this year, outside the fact that they can get lit up by the Lions. OchoCinco is a terrible acquisition.

It's yet to be determined how their offense will look this year, and it's dangerous to base it off last year

[brahmabull117]

They have yet to prove a thing this year, outside the fact that they can get lit up by the Lions. OchoCinco is a terrible acquisition. It's yet to be determined how their offense will look this year, and it's dangerous to base it off last year

some meaningless preseason games are more significant to you than the patriot's history of averaging about 26-35 points per game now for a good 4-5 straight years??

[hubie69]

some meaningless preseason games are more significant to you than the patriot's history of averaging about 26-35 points per game now for a good 4-5 straight years??

Some season stats from over 6 Months ago are more meaningful than ANY action that happened in the last 3 weeks?

[og4667]

I think fins are the right side, take the pats and see what happens. Dolphins have one of the best CB duos in the league and a defense that is overlooked. Henne will play great tonight...

[rsnnh12]

They have yet to prove a thing this year, outside the fact that they can get lit up by the Lions. OchoCinco is a terrible acquisition.

It's yet to be determined how their offense will look this year, and it's dangerous to base it off last year

I would LOVE to hear your reasoning for this

Compared to last years rebuilding year- Pats have more explosive RBs, more depth at WR, and 2 TEs coming off amazing rookie seasons. The biggest question for the Pats right now is the health of their O line.

[Brock Landers]

New England should win this game easy, Miami has little value as a home dog here, but it is tough to lay 7 on the road in a divisional game on monday night

[hubie69]

Because everyone seems to think he's going to come in and be the next Randy Moss. He wont be. I think he lacks the motivation to be great like Randy was there in NE.

[brahmabull117]

Some season stats from over 6 Months ago are more meaningful than ANY action that happened in the last 3 weeks?

except it's not 1 season stats, it's season stats over a 4-5 year period




not to mention if you really put any value into preseason games, you are beyond retarded

[rsnnh12]

Because everyone seems to think he's going to come in and be the next Randy Moss. He wont be. I think he lacks the motivation to be great like Randy was there in NE.

Its the exact opposite. He lacks the natural talent of Moss, but has 10X the motivation and work ethic. He won't put up Moss numbers, but I think 70-80 catches, ~900 yards, and 8-10 TDs is not unreasonable. He's certainly an upgrade over Branch as a "#1" WR, and is just another weapon for Brady. Pats thrive on forcing matchup issues

[hubie69]

Its the exact opposite. He lacks the natural talent of Moss, but has 10X the motivation and work ethic. He won't put up Moss numbers, but I think 70-80 catches, ~900 yards, and 8-10 TDs is not unreasonable. He's certainly an upgrade over Branch as a "#1" WR, and is just another weapon for Brady. Pats thrive on forcing matchup issues

Maybe thats the case, I just don't think so. I guess we'll see. I think Moss had 10X the talent and the motivation. I don't think OchoCinco cares all that much.

[big0mar]

miami could have the worst record in the league this year, I honestly expect them to lose 13-14 games because they have no running game anymore to go along with the god awful chad henne throwing the ball

You realize that they didn't have a running game last year, right?

How did the Pats defense do last time they had to face Brian Daboll???

[big0mar]

really?? So you think the patriots offense won't be as good this year with more experience and a great acquisition in Ochocinco??

You realize that they will probably be down to only 6 dressed offensive lineman tonight?

Do you actually follow whats going on with these teams?

[Redchevy]

I think Henne may be in for a long night tonight. What no one has really seen yet, is how much pressure Belichicks' revamped defense will bring. We have yet to see all of the starters play together, tonight he unleashes the hounds! Tonights starters all played bits and pieces during pre-season, tonight we'll see what he's put together. I've watched all of Miamis' pre-season work and I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe all of a sudden Henne can keep pace with Brady. Good luck to all!!

[rsnnh12]

You realize that they will probably be down to only 6 dressed offensive lineman tonight?

Do you actually follow whats going on with these teams?

As of right now, this is the biggest issue for the Pats. If 1 of the tackles gets hurt, they could move Mankins to that spot and have Connolly play guard, but they wouldn't have any backup linemen if another got hurt. I've heard they will be making a roster move to get an extra lineman, but as far as I know that hasn't happened yet.

[neverstoppers23]

Belichek having all off season to prepare vs. a rookie head coach, and chad Heene as the QB. Reggie Bush as an every down back. Yeah, this game is a blow out folks. Although.... I did put a lot on the Pats two years ago and they opened vs. Buffalo, and it took a miracle of Buffalo fumbling the ball for New England to win that game.

[DwightShrute]

rookie head coach???

[hubie69]

. I've watched all of Miamis' pre-season work and I haven't seen anything to lead me to believe all of a sudden Henne can keep pace with Brady. Good luck to all!!

He doesn't have to keep pace with Brady, just within 8 pts of him. And Henne has looked good with Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush.

[Dark Horse]

books have accepted there loss on the -3's or 4's or 5.5's. they are gonna get the public on the -7 now. i can already see the excuses of the fix being in by pats bettors if things dont go"according to plan" . you dont lay 7 points in road games on mnf on opening day on a div game.

If you know that, why don't you tease the game both ways?

[Redchevy]

He doesn't have to keep pace with Brady, just within 8 pts of him. And Henne has looked good with Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush.

I just don't feel that is going to happen. I think NE puts up in 35 point range and I don't see Henne coming close to that.

[hubie69]

I just don't feel that is going to happen. I think NE puts up in 35 point range and I don't see Henne coming close to that.

Not sure about 35, I can see 24-28, in which case Mia can easily cover